Transcript Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight) - AG

Committee for the Common Organisation
of the Agricultural Markets
11 December 2014
Evolution of the EU average pig carcass price
Class E & S prices from 1/1/2014
190
€/100 kg
175
160
145
130
115
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
5 yr Avg former class E (09-13)
DG AGRI C3
Jun
May
2011
Jul
DE 2011
Aug
Sep
2013
Nov
Oct
2014
Class E
Dec
2014
Class S
11 December 2014
Evolution of the EU average piglet prices
55
50
€/piece
45
40
35
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
5 yr avg (09 - 13)
DG AGRI C3
Jun
Jul
Aug
2013
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
11 December 2014
Weekly pig price (average class S and E) in
FI, EE, LV, LT, HU and PL compared to the EU average
185
175
€/ 100kg
165
155
145
135
125
115
DG AGRI C3
2014
1
6
11
EE
LV
LT
16
PL
21
26
31
2014 Week nr: 45
HU
FI
36
EU
41
46
51
5 yr Avg former class E (09-13)
11 December
Weekly pig price (average class S and E) in
BE, DE, IE, DK, FR and NL compared to the EU average
185
175
€/ 100kg
165
155
145
135
125
115
1
BE
DG AGRI C3
6
DE
11
EI
16
DK
21
26
31
2014 Week nr: 45
FR
NL
36
EU
41
46
51
5 yr Avg former class E (09-13)
11 December 2014
Forecast Quarterly Slaughter: Based on realised slaughter
included MSs' & Experts' forecast
Last update : 8.12.2014
26 MSs communicated GIP forecast in June
percentual change (based on number of heads)
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
-2,0%
-4,0%
-6,0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Ann
DG AGRI C3
2011
2,2%
2,3%
3,1%
-0,1%
1,8%
2012
-0,5%
-1,6%
-5,5%
-2,8%
-2,6%
2013
-1,6%
0,4%
0,8%
1,0%
0,1%
2014
0,9%
-1,0%
2,7%
-0,2%
0,6%
2015
-0,1%
0,0%
11 December 2014
Evolution of pig slaughter by MS (in t)
+ 60%
+ 50%
EU - Jan-Sep: + 0.9%
Sep. 13/14: + 9.9%
(data without IT)
+ 40%
+ 30%
+ 20%
+ 10%
- 10.0%
- 20.0%
- 30.0%
- 40.0%
IT
PL
EE
IE HU
SI
BG LV
PT RO LU
LT
DE NL
ES
BE
Jan-Sep.13
/Jan-Sep.14
DG AGRI C3
CZ
FR DK UK SE
CY AT MT FI
GR HR SK
EU EU
(no
IT)
Sep.13
/Sep.14
11 December 2014
EU average pigcarcase price
Euro/ 100kg
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
92
93
94
95
96
97
EU avg pig price
DG AGRI C3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
period of Aid for Private Storage
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
déstockage
11 December 2014
15
Development of producer margins
(pig price over feed costs)
300
250
Euro/ 100kg ( pig carcase)
250
200
200
150
150
Margin/ Comp. Feed (4.4 > 3.9)
Carcase price
100
average Margin 2009 - 2013 (49,92 €/100kg)
100
Cereals and Soja mix
Compound feed
50
50
0
0
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
NB:Comp. Feed 2014 = Forecast as from September.
Cereal mix and Pig carcase price: 2014. = expectations as from December 2014.
DG AGRI C3
2014
11 December
€uro/ T (Cereal & Soja mix/ Compound feed)
300
Weekly average Pigprices 2010 - 2014
EU, Brazil and the US
in Euro/ 100kg carcase
195,0
175,0
155,0
135,0
BR 164,08
115,0
US 154,25
95,0
CDN 143,57
75,0
EU 141,40
55,0
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
EU = we ighted avg of MS price s grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S.
US = we ekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb
BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)
CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, be fore Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
2014
|
EU
US
Braz. avg
CDN Ontario
DG AGRI C3
11 December 2014
2015
Index of monthly exchange rates of the
main trading partners compared to the €uro
notification on the 1st of the month
January 2009 = 100
150,0
125,0
100,0
75,0
50,0
I
2009
I
2010
Real
DG AGRI C3
I
2011
US$
I
2012
I
Ruble
2013
I
2014
AUS$
I
2015
CDN$
11 December 2014
|
DG AGRI C3
26.033
33.845
37.118
36.087
44.191
51.789
59.838
43.179
32.368
21.730
22.612
72.276
.
2.120.510
3.100.884
3.072.457
3.133.570
2.627.621
EXPOR TS
1.750.000
1.500.000
1.250.000
1.000.000
750.000
500.000
250.000
Tonnes product weight
2.569.087
2.386.245
1.910.908
2.089.363
1.938.455
1.780.568
1.509.302
1.526.563
1.331.808
1.545.907
1.556.961
1.238.138
1.083.230
943.405
881.011
IMPORTS
54.499
56.077
55.918
63.800
51.641
71.937
59.720
46.135
EU trade of PIG products
4.000.000
3.750.000
3.500.000
3.250.000
3.000.000
2.750.000
2.500.000
2.250.000
2.000.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jan-Sep 14
0
11 December 2014
EU imports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
2010
tonnes
Sw itzerland
Serbia
%
17.480 40%
859
Chile
2011
2%
11.724 27%
Norw ay
1.911
4%
Other
12.216 28%
EXTRA EU 25/27
44.191
% change
DG AGRI C3
tonnes
2012
%
18.723 52%
2.397
7%
tonnes
2013
%
19.491 53%
2.391
6%
tonnes
Jan-Sep 14
%
17.495 52%
3.094
9%
tonnes
%
Compared
to Jan-Sep 13
13.168 51%
1%
2.772 11%
27%
7.734 21%
7.467 20%
5.398 16%
2.344
9%
-47%
1.530
1.986
1.995
2.167
8%
42%
4%
5.703 16%
5%
5.782 16%
6%
5.863 17%
5.582 21%
36.087
37.118
33.845
26.033
- 18%
+ 3%
- 9%
+ 1,3%
11 December 2014
EU imports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28
(Tonnes prod. weight)
IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)
60.000
28.308
30.000
25.707
26.033
4.605
25.000
4.330
3.998
50.102
50.088
48.253
12.896
50.000
13.249
11.282
40.000
20.000
1.814
2.189
30.000
15.000
2.772
20.000
10.000
14.962
13.066
1.192
13.168
5.000
13.442
1.478
1.693
11.232
10.613
10.000
0
0
Jan-Sep 12
Switzerland
Jan-Sep 13
Serbia
Chile
DG AGRI C3
Norway
Jan-Sep 14
Thailand
Other origins
Jan-Sep 12
Switzerland
Serbia
Jan-Sep 13
Chile
Jan-Sep 14
Norway
Thailand
Other origins
11 December 2014
Imports of selected PIG products
6.000
in Tonnes
(product
weight)
4.500
3.000
1.500
0
2009
|
2008
|
2007
|
Jan
Jan
Jan
09
08
07
FRESH
DG AGRI C3
2010
|
Jan
10
FROZEN
2011
|
Jan
11
FAT
2012
|
Jan
12
2013
|
Jan
13
2014
|
Jan
14
OTHERS
11 December 2014
EU exports of selected PIG products:
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
2010
tonnes
2011
%
tonnes
2012
%
tonnes
2013
%
tonnes
Jan-Sep 14
%
tonnes
Compared to
%
Jan-Sep 13
China
207.352
7,9%
393.819 12,6%
586.441 19,1%
665.495 21,5%
500.778 23,6%
Hong Kong
426.697 16,2%
539.363 17,2%
381.069 12,4%
387.126 12,5%
295.337 13,9%
+ 4%
Japan
223.637
8,5%
231.282
7,4%
230.792
7,5%
231.601
7,5%
253.788 12,0%
+ 50%
89.407
3,4%
96.880
3,1%
73.412
2,4%
101.167
3,3%
147.301
6,9%
+ 94%
South Korea
100.790
3,8%
193.909
6,2%
137.220
4,5%
103.055
3,3%
134.331
6,3%
+ 92%
Ukraine
137.736
5,2%
113.962
3,6%
161.599
5,3%
122.679
4,0%
74.896
3,5%
- 22%
58.736
2,2%
59.548
1,9%
60.824
2,0%
60.260
1,9%
63.940
3,0%
+ 43%
747.233 24,1%
Philippines
USA
Russia
59.907
2,8%
- 89%
Angola
44.399
1,7%
61.559
2,0%
59.210
1,9%
61.273
2,0%
49.108
2,3%
+ 10%
Serbia
11.169
0,4%
13.096
0,4%
25.310
0,8%
32.140
1,0%
46.270
2,2%
+ 116%
Australia
50.373
1,9%
44.340
1,4%
47.270
1,5%
44.509
1,4%
45.188
2,1%
+ 32%
Belarus
80.331
3,1%
103.830
3,3%
123.229
4,0%
87.585
2,8%
4.685
0,2%
- 93%
Other
Extra EU28
808.663 30,8%
388.330 14,8%
2.627.621
% change
DG AGRI C3
847.498 27,0%
434.485 14,5%
745.014 24,2%
+ 1%
441.067 13,7%
456.762 14,4%
444.982 21,0%
3.133.570
3.072.457
3.100.884
2.120.510
+ 19%
- 2%
+ 1%
- 7,3%
11 December 2014
EU exports of selected PIG products
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat
(Tonnes prod. weight)
2.283.962
EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
Tons (pw)
.
2.500.000
2.286.422
4.490.309
in 1,000 EUR
.
5.000.000
4.454.147
4.051.368
2.120.510
4.000.000
2.000.000
1.254.979
1.191.216
4.500.000
3.500.000
788.977
2.570.103
2.537.315
1.678.333
1.500.000
3.000.000
2.500.000
147.301
55.305
171.990
280.679
75.764
169.608
253.788
283.665
295.337
413.553
496.148
Jan-Sep 12
Jan-Sep 13
500.000
500.778
535.950
0
China
Hong Kong
Japan
DG AGRI C3
Philippines
91.577
69.044
Jan-Sep 14
South Korea
Other destinations
2.000.000
153.565
1.000.000
1.500.000
1.000.000
384.185
408.135
633.760
600.790
500.000
0
Jan-Sep 12
China
Hong Kong
Jan-Sep 13
Japan
Philippines
Jan-Sep 14
South Korea
Other destinations
11 December 2014
in Tonnes
(product weight)
Exports of selected PIG products
350.000
300.000
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
0
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
FRESH
DG AGRI C3
FROZEN
FAT
LIVE ANIMALS
OTHERS
11 December 2014