Transcript Factors that influence High Street change and identifying priority
50 years of change and a model for the future
Cathy Parker and Simon Quin @placemanagement #HSUK2020
Good morning and welcome Welcome particularly to representatives of our partner towns: • Alsager, Altrincham, Ballymena, Barnsley, Bristol (St George), Congleton, Holmfirth, Market Rasen, Morley and Wrexham
Welcome also to our international • • • • • • • webinar participants Australia • Canada • Cyprus Germany Greece Italy Malaysia • • • • Netherlands Portugal Poland Sweden United Kingdom …and Isle of Man https://mmu.adobeconnect.com/uk2020mmu/
Agenda 09.30 – 10.30
10.30 – 11.00
50 years of high street change & a model for the future Break 11.00 – 13.00
@placemanagement Repositioning, reinventing, rebranding & restructuring your high street #HSUK2020
Parliament June 2014
The challenge….and some background
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
Change in retailer location 2000-11 Out of town up 50 million square feet Town centre down 46 million square feet
100,000 !
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Loss won’t be uniform
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Department for Transport 2011
Department for Transport 2011
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Change in Tesco store format
47% of stores over 25,000 sq ft 66% of stores under 5000 sq ft
1
1972
2
1995
Dawson J 2004
Generating 70% of retail sales
29000 retailers
1971
100 retailers
2004
Food Durable goods Bulky goods
Actual Town Centre Town Centre plus 300 metres
Planning Statistical Release 4, DCLG, 2009
Percentage of newly built retail space in town centres: 1971-2008
Online retailing
Online share of home retailing 2014 Italy Poland Spain France Netherlands Europe av Sweden Germany US UK 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 16,00% Centre for Retail Research 2013
Growth Forecasts
Online retailing
16% pa
£52 bn in 2015 M-retailing 62% this year £7.92 bn
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Town centre share of retail spend
2000 49.4% 2011 42.2% 2014 39.8%
Parliament 2014
The response
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
• • • • • • • Vital & Viable Town Centres Planning Policy Guidance/Statements Business Improvement Districts High Street Britain 2015 The Portas Review Understanding High Street Performance Future High Streets Forum
Nature of TCM schemes
IPM 2009
Focus of TCM schemes
Influencing strategy Forming strategy Service delivery
PWC 2008
The 4 As
Attractions Action Amenity Accessibility
The 4 As
What the centre has to offer Making things happen Getting into, out of, and around centre Experience within centre Spatial Macro Meso factors
The research
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
10000 studies found 2345 after clean up 923 ‘retail’ highlighted 253 town centre/high st 173 studies reviewed @placemanagement #HSUK2020
Review parameters
1. Type of study (empirical, exploratory, conceptual) 2. Methodological evidence 3. Data source (primary, secondary, tertiary) 4. Dependent variable (retail area performance measure) 5. Independent variables (factor affecting performance) 6. Significance (major findings and statistical significance if available) 7. Limitations (flaws, weaknesses etc.) 8. Author, date, publisher 9. Geographical location (UK, US, Europe, e.g.) 10.Size of retail/shopping centre (Different geographical scales of place, e.g. city centre, town centre, high street, neighbourhood centre, district centre, suburban centre)
Time in minutes per review
Retail Restructuring and Consumer Choice 1: Long-term local changes in consumer behaviour: Portsmouth, 1980 2002
38 mins
US nationwide trends in metropolitan retail trade: A perspective of the mid 1980s
Most of the studies were empirical
Historical Other Explanatory Empirical Conceptual
Most published in the last 10 years
Mostly from UK and Europe
Focus of data City Centre Town Centre High Street Neighbourhood Centre District Centre Suburban Centre Out of town Centre
166 factors influence performance
And if 166 factors were not enough…..
• • • Partner towns identified 50 additional factors that influence the High Street 33 additional studies reviewed 201 factors finally identified, but: – how much influence does each one have? – what should towns be focussing on?
The Delphi Technique
The Delphi method is unique in its method of eliciting and refining group judgement as it is based on the notion that a group of experts is better than one expert when exact knowledge is not available.
(Paliwoda, 1983).
22 Experts participated
Practitioner
Major retailer Shopping centres owner Urban consultant Retail letting agency Urban policy group Trade association Professional body
Academic
Manchester Metropolitan University University of Leicester University of Dundee University of Ulster Oxford University University of Manchester University of Liverpool University of Portsmouth University of Loughborough
Consensus reached on
1. How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street 2. How much control a location has over the factor
You can’t control everything
Spatial Macro Meso Micro
The model
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
4 Child-minding centre 3,5 Deliveries 3 2,5 2 Political climate Methods of classification 1,5 1 2 Spatial structure Location 2,5 3 3,5 4
Amount of influence factor has over vitality and viability
4,5 Opening hours Leadership 5
Influence relationships
• • • Weak inverse relationship between influence town has over factor and influence factor has over vitality and viability As a rule of thumb the more a factor influences vitality and viability, the less you can do about it Towns need to focus on factors they can influence, and where that influence will impact on vitality and viability
4 3,5 Child-minding centre
Not worth it!
Deliveries 3 2,5 Opening hours
Get on with it!
Leadership 2 Political climate Methods of classification 1,5 1 2
Forget it!
Live with it!
Spatial structure Location 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5
Amount of influence factor has over vitality and viability
5
Top 25 priorities
3,900 3,700 3,500 3,300 APPEARANCE PLACE MARKETING PLACE ASSURANCE NECESSITIES EXPERIENCE NETWORKS & ENTERTAINMENT AND LEISURE PARTNERSHIPS WITH COUNCIL RECREATIONAL SPACE Anchor stores MERCHANDISE ACTIVITY HOURS MANAGEMENT VISION&STRATEGY RETAILERS ADAPTABILITY Chain vs independent WALKING DIVERSITY 3,100 2,900 Safety/crime LIVEABLE ATTRACTIVENESS Comparison/convenience Barriers to Entry ACCESSIBLE 2,700 3,300 3,500 3,700 3,900 4,100 4,300
How much factor influences vitality and viability
4,500 4,700
Forecasting the future of your high street
@placemanagement #HSUK2020
High Street UK 2020
Spatial factors
Location Distance to centre Size/Type of town Spatial structure
Towns can’t do anything about these factors!
High Street UK 2020
Macro factors
Economy Consumer trends Business rates Ageing population Technology Retail planning policy
Towns can’t change these on their own
High Street UK 2020
Meso factors
Barriers to entry Competition (other towns) Comparison/Convenience Out of town shopping Tenant variety Vacancy rates
Towns interact with these/have some Influence
High Street UK 2020
Micro factors
Cleanliness Visual appearance Networking Opening Hours Attractions Centre Marketing Amenities Car-parking Entertainment Leadership
RESULTS from #HSUK2020 towns
Spatial Macro Meso Partnerships have 63.89 % of potential influence Micro
How much control do our HSUK2020 towns have?
4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Delphi Average
“..lively, diverse, intense cities contain the seeds of their own regeneration…”
How do you manage change?
Repositioning Dr Steve Millington Reinventing John Pal Rebranding Dr Mihalis Kavaratzis Restructuring Professor Deborah Peel