Transcript Michigan and 2014: A State of Play

Michigan and 2014: A
State of Play
An assessment of Michigan’s top statewide races
The MDP: think the Lions, if they
hadn’t fired Jim Schwartz
 Several statewide positions lack
declared (SoS, Sup Ct) or widely
supported (AG) candidates
 Statewide Democratic candidates
(Schauer, Peters, et al.) lag behind
Republican opponents
Lon Johnson, MDP Chair
Michigan Governor
Governor Rick Snyder (R) v. Mark Schauer (D)
Governor Snyder builds his lead…
 Governor Snyder: < 50%, but consistently
leads Democrat Mark Schauer
 Recent polling has Snyder up
… and Schauer lags behind.
 Falling behind in
polling, and in resources
 Tough to gain on
opponent; no specific
plans have hampered
him
US Senate
Terri Lynn Land (R) v. Rep. Gary Peters (D)
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Two Evenly Matched Teams…
 Both have strong electoral
records
 Land: Secretary of State victories
in 2002 and ’06
 Peters: a close loss to formerAG
Cox in 2002, Congressional wins
in 2010 and ‘12
…with Land Exceeding
Expectations
 In the last two quarters of 2013,
Land raised $3.6 million
 According to recent FEC filings
and polling, Land has a small, but
meaningful lead
 Independent ad buys bolster both
candidates.
 US Chamber and MI Chamber
Endorse
 War on Women comes to this race.
Really.
Michigan Supreme Court
Justices Brian Zahra, David Viviano, and an open
seat
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Snyder’s Appointments Up For
Re-election
 While rare for an incumbent justice
to lose, there is precedent
 In 2008 and 2010, incumbent justices
Alton Davis and Cliff Tayor were,
respectively, defeated
 No announced candidates, but worth
keeping an eye on the vacant seat up
for grabs
Justice Brian Zahra
Justice David Viviano
US Congress
Races to watch: Rep. Dan Benishek (R, MI-1), Justin Amash (R,
MI-3), Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R,
MI-11)
Open Seats:
4-R- Konetchy v. Mitchell v. Moolenaar (Camp)
8-R- Bishop v. McMillin (Rogers open);
D-Darga v. Gretternberg v. Hank v. Scherzing
14: D- Burgess v. Clarke v. Hobbs v. Lawrence
A Tight Race in Michigan’s
st
1
 Benishek’s 2012 race one of the
tightest in the nation
 In 2014, Benishek’s opponent is
county sheriff Jerry Cannon
 Cannon proving to be a strong
fundraiser, but gaffe-prone
Jerry Cannon (l) and Rep. Dan Benishek (r)
Primaries to Watch
Michigan’s 11th
 Seat currently held by incumber
Kerry Bentivolio
 Challenger: Oakland County
businessman Dave Trott.
Endorsed by MI Chamber.
 In the last quarter of 2013, Trott
outraised Bentivolio 10 to 1.
Trott is on tv. Bentivolio hearing
today in Plymouth
Michigan’s 3rd
 Libertarian Republican Rep.
Justin Amash faces primary
challenger Brian Ellis
 Amash endorsed by Club for
Growth, Freedomworks
 Ellis ad hitting Amash on RTL
issues/legislative record
Primaries to Watch
Michigan’s 8th
Michigan’s 4th
 Republican +3-4
 Republican +5-6
 Conservative Mike Bishop v.
 Peter Konetchy v. Paul Mitchell
Libertarian/Tea party Tom
McMillin
 Congressman Rogers endorsed
Bishop; Congressman Amash
endorsed McMillin
v. John Moolenaar
 Paul Mitchell went up with 2nd
ad; organization
 John Moolenaar: Popular
legislator; endorsements from
elected officials/grassroots
activists
Generals to Watch
Michigan’s 7th
 Republican +3-4
 Conservative Republican Tim
Walberg. Gadfly primary Daniel
Radcliffe North.
 Democrat Pam Byrnes
 Competitive fundraising in 1st
quarter
Michigan’s 14th
 Democrat Battle Royale: former
Congressman Hansen Clarke;
State Rep Rudy Hobbs;
Southfield Mayor Brenda
Lawrence; and Burgess Foster
 A Conyers makes the ballot.
Republican Christina Conyers
Attorney General and
Secretary of State
AG Bill Schuette (R) v. Totten/Dillard (D);
SoS Ruth Johnson (R) v. Nobody (D)
Schuette and Johnson: Free
Ride to the End Zone?
 SoS Ruth Johnson (R) has no
announced opponent, with Byrum
silent and Brown running as
Schauer’s LG candidate
 AG Schuette faces Mark Totten or
Goddfrey Dillard, who both lack
wide support among Democrats
SoS Ruth Johnson (l), AG Bill Schuette (r)
Michigan Legislature
Likely GOP holds in Senate and House
Michigan Legislature Highlights
House
Senate

59-51 GOP majority
 26-12 GOP majority

GOP Pickup to Watch:Canton area: Fausone
v. Pagan/Mathas/Mosher;
 4 key races all held by GOP

Open Monroe Zorn seat: Jason Sheppard v
Mima Kubiske. V. Dem Tom Redmond
 7th: Colbeck (R) v. Slavens (D)



Rising star: Livonia seats; Wayne Cty
Commissioner Cox (R) likely Livonia
candidate v. Crider
Holly Hughes (R) could flip Rep. Lamonte
(D) seat, as could Tom Barrett (R) with Rep.
Abed (D)
Competitive GOP-held seats in Troy and
downriver Wayne with Howylrak and
Sommerville, respectively
 17th: Zorn (R) v. Spade (D) (Open)
 20th: O’Brien, Wenke, Zuiderveen (R)
v. Sean McCann (D)
 32nd: Ken Horn (R) v, Stacey Erwin
Oakes, Lewis, Federspiel (D)
Ballot Initiatives
Minimum Wage hike, Personal Property Tax exemption
Part-time legislature; Wolf Hunting
Ballot Initiatives to Watch
Raise MI:
Minimum Wage hike
 Effort to put the hike on the
ballot still developing—
Restaurant Opportunity Center
 $206,000 raised; $147,000 in-
kind; $32,000 on hand
 Competing legislative proposal.
Part-Time Legislaature
 Low on funds. $48,000 for cycle;
$10,000 on hand
 Not sure signatures will happen
 Key contributors: Dave Agema;
Ballot Initiatives to Watch
PPT Reform
 Citizens for Strong Safe Communities:
$5.2 Million Raised
 Serious Money: Ford $2 million; Dow
$1.5 million; MMA $1.2 Million
 $125,000 spent on start-up costs
Ballot Initiatives to Watch
Wolf Hunting

Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing. Signatures
collected

2012 US Fish and Wildlife Deregulated Wolf from endangered
species

MI Dept. Natural Resources allowed to regulate wolf hunting
season. 700 Wolves. Nov/Dec 2013—43 wolf hunted
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Competing proposals. Pro-signatures for citizens initative will be
turned in and opposing will be knocked off.
Ballot Initiatives to Watch
Wolf Hunting—Keep
Michigan Wolves
Protected
 $1.4 Million Raised; $1,000,000
spent; $427, 594 on hand
 Most spending collecting
signatures
 Humane Society Backing
Citizens for Professional
Wildlife Management
 Ballot initiative to reinforce MI
NRC allowing hunts
 $464, 398 raised $430,000 spent;
$36,529 on hand
 Conservation groups supporting
Questions?