Transcript De houdbaarheid van de overheidsfinanci n in het licht van de

De houdbaarheid van de
QXGTJGKFUHKPCPEKÇPKPJGVNKEJVXCP
FG|XGTITKL\KPI
9/GN[P
L. Van Meensel
58CP2CT[U
Inleiding
+P \QYCV CNNG NCPFGP XCP FG YGTGNF XGTQWFGTV FG DGXQNMKPI CCP\KGPNĎM GGP QPVYKMMGNKPI FKG XGTITĎ\KPI YQTFV
IGPQGOF &G\G VGPFGPU KU JGV XGTUV IGXQTFGTF KP FG
IGËPFWUVTKCNKUGGTFG NCPFGP 1QM $GNIKÇ YQTFV IGEQPHTQPVGGTF OGV FG XGTITĎ\KPI FKG \KEJ FG XQNIGPFG FGEGPPKC
\CNXQQTV\GVVGPGPVQVWKVKPIMQOVKPGGPVQGPCOGXCPFG
QWFGTGDGXQNMKPIGPGGPVĎFGNĎMGCHPCOGXCPFGDGXQNMKPIQRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎF
&G\G QPVYKMMGNKPIGP JGDDGP GGP GPQTOG KORCEV QR
FG UCOGPNGXKPI &G GEQPQOKUEJG ITQGK XGTVTCCIV QPFGT
KPXNQGF XCP FG VĎFGNĎMG KPMTKORKPI XCP FG DGXQNMKPI QR
CTDGKFUNGGHVĎF &CCTPCCUV QPVUVCCV HQTUG QRYCCTVUG FTWM
QR FG QXGTJGKFUWKVICXGP XQQT RGPUKQGPGP IG\QPFJGKFU
GP QWFGTGP\QTI CNU IGXQNI XCP FG UVGTMG VQGPCOG XCP
JGV CCPVCN IGRGPUKQPGGTFGP &G UQEKCNG GP GEQPQOKUEJG YGGTUNCI XCP FG\G FGOQITCƂUEJG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP
KU FCP QQM CCP\KGPNĎM QPFGT OGGT QR JGV XNCM XCP FG
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP
+PFKVCTVKMGNYQTFVVQGNKEJVKPIXGTUVTGMVDĎFG\GIGXQNIGP
GPPCIGICCPQRYGNMGYĎ\GFGQXGTJGKFJKGTQRMCPTGCIGTGP QPFGT OGGT XKC GGP IGRCUV DGITQVKPIUDGNGKF GGP
ITQGKDGXQTFGTGPF GEQPQOKUEJ DGNGKF GP JGTXQTOKPIGP
KP\CMG RGPUKQGPGP GP IG\QPFJGKFU\QTI VGPGKPFG FG
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPIG\QPFVGJQWFGP
*GV GGTUVG FGGN XCP JGV CTVKMGN DGXCV GGP QXGT\KEJV XCP FG
DGNCPITĎMUVGFGOQITCƂUEJGQPVYKMMGNKPIGP+PJGVVYGGFG
&GEGODGT
\
FGGN MQOGP FG GEQPQOKUEJG GP DWFIGVVCKTG IGXQNIGP XCP
FG XGTITĎ\KPI CCP DQF +P JGV FGTFG FGGN YQTFV WKVIGNGIF
YCVQPFGTJQWFDCTGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPYQTFVXGTUVCCPGP
JQGFKVEQPEGRVMCPYQTFGPIGQRGTCVKQPCNKUGGTF8GTXQNIGPU
YQTFVKPJGVXKGTFGFGGNWKVGGPIG\GVJQGFG$GNIKUEJGQXGTJGKF MCP TGCIGTGP QR FG IGXQNIGP XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI &G
EQPENWUKGXCVFGXQQTPCCOUVGDGXKPFKPIGPUCOGP
1. &GOQITCƂUEJGQPVYKMMGNKPIGP
1RYGTGNFXNCMFQGP\KEJVYGGDGNCPITĎMGFGOQITCƂUEJG
VGPFGPUGP XQQT #NNGTGGTUV PGGOV FG DGXQNMKPI KP FG
OGGUVGTGIKQoUXCPFGYGTGNFXGTFGTVQG&CCTPCCUVXGTQWFGTVFGDGXQNMKPIKPGGPUPGNVGORQCNJQGYGNGTXGTUEJKNNGP \ĎP VWUUGP FG XGTUEJKNNGPFG TGIKQoU GP NCPFGP &G\G
VGPFGPUGP\QWFGPFGMQOGPFGFGEGPPKCCCPJQWFGP
*KGTPC MQOV JGV FGOQITCƂUEJ XGTNQQR KP $GNIKÇ CCP
DQF &G JKGTXQQT IGDTWKMVG IGIGXGPU \ĎP CHMQOUVKI XCP
FG OGGUV TGEGPVG FGOQITCƂUEJG XQQTWKV\KEJVGP XQQT
$GNIKÇ XQQT FG RGTKQFG| \QCNU KP OCCTV| IGRWDNKEGGTF FQQT JGV (GFGTCCN 2NCPDWTGCW GP FG
#NIGOGPG&KTGEVKG5VCVKUVKGM
#&5XCPFG(1&'EQPQOKG
$GVTQWYDCTGFGOQITCƂUEJGXQQTWKV\KEJVGP\ĎPDGNCPITĎM
QO \KEJV VG JGDDGP QR FG VQGMQOUVKIG FGOQITCƂUEJG
WKVFCIKPIGP &CCTDĎ YQTFV URGEKƂGM CCPFCEJV DGUVGGF
CCPFGNGGHVĎFUUVTWEVWWTXCPFGDGXQNMKPICCPIG\KGPJGV
XGTNQQRFCCTXCPDGRCNGPFKUXQQTFGDWFIGVVCKTGGEQPQOKUEJG GP UQEKCNG IGXQNIGP YCCTOGG FG DGNGKFUOCMGTU
worden geconfronteerd.
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
95
1.1
&GVGTOKPCPVGPXCPJGVXGTNQQRGPFG
UVTWEVWWTXCPFGDGXQNMKPI
&TKGHCEVQTGPDGRCNGPJGVXGTNQQRGPFGUVTWEVWWTXCPFG
DGXQNMKPI OGV PCOG FG NGXGPUXGTYCEJVKPI JGV IGOKFFGNFCCPVCNMKPFGTGPRGTXTQWYGPJGVOKITCVKGUCNFQ&G\G
HCEVQTGPYQTFGPJKGTPCCEJVGTGGPXQNIGPUDGURTQMGP
1.1.1
.GXGPUXGTYCEJVKPI
&GXQQTDĎGFGEGPPKCKUFGNGXGPUXGTYCEJVKPIDĎIGDQQTVG
KP $GNIKÇ UVGTM VQGIGPQOGP XCP | LCCT KP | VQV
|LCCTKP|XQQTOCPPGPGPXCP|VQV|LCCT
XQQT XTQWYGP &G\G VQGPCOG KU QR FG GGTUVG RNCCVU VG
GRAFIEK 1
DETERMINANTEN VAN HET VERLOOP EN DE
STRUCTUUR VAN DE BEVOLKING IN BELGIË
LEVENSVERWACHTING BIJ GEBOORTE
(in jaren)
2060
60
2050
65
60
2040
70
65
2030
70
2010
2015
2020
75
2000
80
75
1990
85
80
1980
90
85
1970
95
90
1960
95
Mannen
Vrouwen
3,0
GEMIDDELD AANTAL KINDEREN PER VROUW
3,0
2060
2050
0,0
2040
0,0
2030
0,5
2010
2015
2020
1,0
0,5
2000
1,0
1990
1,5
1980
2,0
1,5
1970
2,5
2,0
1960
2,5
MIGRATIESALDO
(in duizenden personen)
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
2060
2050
2040
2030
2010
2015
2020
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
$TQPPGP(GFGTCCN2NCPDWTGCW(1&'EQPQOKGs#&50$$
\
&G NGXGPUXGTYCEJVKPI DĎ IGDQQTVG \QW IGFWTGPFG FG
MQOGPFGFGEGPPKCXGTFGTVQGPGOGP8QNIGPUFGOGGUVG
XQQTWKV\KEJVGP\CNFGUVĎIKPIKPFGVQGMQOUVYCVOKPFGT
UVGTM\ĎPFCPVĎFGPUFGXQQTDĎGFGEGPPKC1RDCUKUXCP
FG OGGUV TGEGPVG XQQTWKV\KEJVGP \QW FG NGXGPUXGTYCEJVKPI DĎ IGDQQTVG KP $GNIKÇ VGIGP | VQGPGOGP VQV
| LCCT XQQT OCPPGP GP VQV | LCCT XQQT XTQWYGP
*GVXGTUEJKNVWUUGPFGIGUNCEJVGP\QWFWUMNGKPGTYQTFGP
1.1.2
)GOKFFGNFCCPVCNMKPFGTGPRGTXTQWY
0C FG PCQQTNQIUG DCD[DQQO FKG FWWTFG VQV FG VYGGFG
JGNHVXCPFGLCTGPVQGPKP$GNIKÇIGOKFFGNF|MKPFGTGPRGTXTQWYYGTFGPIGDQTGPKUJGVIGOKFFGNFCCPVCN MKPFGTGP RGT XTQWY INQDCCN IGPQOGP UVGTM IGFCCNF
/QOGPVGGNDGFTCCIVJGVQPIGXGGT
$GJCNXGFQQTJGVXGTFYĎPGPXCPFGVĎFGNĎMGQRUVQQVPC
FG VYGGFG YGTGNFQQTNQI KU FG\G QPVYKMMGNKPI VG XGTMNCTGP FQQT GGP CCPVCN HCEVQTGP FG OQIGNĎMJGFGP QR
JGV IGDKGF XCP IGDQQTVGDGRGTMKPI \ĎP VQGIGPQOGP FG
IGOKFFGNFG NGGHVĎF YCCTQR YQTFV IGVTQWYF QH UCOGPIGYQQPF KU QOJQQIIGICCP GP XTQWYGP MTĎIGP NCVGT
MKPFGTGP &G\G HCEVQTGP YGGTURKGIGNGP VGP FGNG UQEKQ
GEQPQOKUEJG VGPFGPUGP \QCNU JGV IGUVGIGP QRNGKFKPIUPKXGCW XCP XTQWYGP GP FG VQGIGPQOGP RCTVKEKRCVKG XCP
XTQWYGPQRFGCTDGKFUOCTMV
8QNIGPU FG OGGUV TGEGPVG FGOQITCƂUEJG XQQTWKV\KEJVGP
\QWJGVIGOKFFGNFCCPVCNMKPFGTGPRGTXTQWYIGFWTGPFG
FGMQOGPFGLCTGPIGNGKFGNĎMVQGPGOGPVQV|KP|GP
FCCTPCXTĎYGNUVCDKGNDNĎXGP&CVDGVGMGPVFCVFGXTWEJVDCCTJGKFQRGGPJKUVQTKUEJTGNCVKGHNCCIPKXGCW\QWDNĎXGP
QPFGTFGPCVWWTNĎMGXGTXCPIKPIUITCCFXCP
1.1.3
/KITCVKGUCNFQ
&G FGTFG GP NCCVUVG HCEVQT FKG JGV XGTNQQR XCP FG VQVCNG
DGXQNMKPI GP FG NGGHVĎFUUVTWEVWWT DGRCCNV KU JGV OKITCVKGUCNFQ FCV IGNĎM KU CCP JGV XGTUEJKN VWUUGP JGV CCPVCN
KOOKITCPVGPGPJGVCCPVCNGOKITCPVGP
–20
–20
XGTMNCTGP FQQTFCV OGGT MKPFGTGP FG GGTUVG NGXGPULCTGP
QXGTNGXGP GP XQNYCUUGP YQTFGP FCPM\Ď FG XQQTWKVICPI
XCP FG OGFKUEJG YGVGPUEJCR XQQTPCOGNĎM UKPFU FG
GGTUVG JGNHV XCP FG VYKPVKIUVG GGWY &CCTPCCUV YQTFGP
UVGGFUOGGTOGPUGPQWFGTCNUIGXQNIXCPFGDGNCPITĎMG
XQQTWKVICPIKP\CMGXQGFKPIURCVTQPGPGPIGPGGUMWPFG
+P $GNIKÇ PCO JGV LCCTNĎMU OKITCVKGUCNFQ VQG XCP QPIGXGGT | RGTUQPGP CCP JGV DGIKP XCP JGV OKNNGPPKWO
VQV OGGT FCP | IGFWTGPFG FG RGTKQFG &CCTPC XQNIFG GGP VĎFGNĎMG VGTWIXCN GP FG LQPIUVG VĎF
UVGGI JGV UCNFQ QRPKGWY VQV JGV PKXGCW XCP XÏÏT FG
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
PCPEKÇNG GP GEQPQOKUEJG ETKUKU 8QNIGPU FG TGEGPVUVG
Ƃ
FGOQITCƂUEJG XQQTWKV\KEJVGP \QW JGV OKITCVKGUCNFQ NCVGT
VGTWINQRGPVQVGGPRGKNVWUUGP|GP|RGTLCCT
&KV XGTVGIGPYQQTFKIV QPIGXGGT XCP FG $GNIKUEJG
bevolking.
&GDGXQNMKPIUXQQTWKV\KEJVGPVQPGPFG
KORCEVXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPI
&G XGTCPFGTKPI KP JGV DGXQNMKPIUCCPVCN MCP WKVIGFTWMV
YQTFGP CNU FG UQO XCP JGV PCVWWTNĎM CEETGU CCPVCN IGDQQTVGP OKP CCPVCN UVGTHIGXCNNGP JGV OKITCVKGUCNFQ GP
GGP XTĎYGN VG XGTYCCTNQ\GP UVCVKUVKUEJG CCPRCUUKPI &KV
MCP IGËNNWUVTGGTF YQTFGP CCP FG JCPF XCP FG $GNIKUEJG
EĎHGTU QXGT FG RGTKQFG VQGP FG DGXQNMKPI
ITQGKFG OGV IGOKFFGNF | RGTUQPGP RGT LCCT &KG
ITQGK KU VQG VG UEJTĎXGP CCP GGP PCVWWTNĎMG CCPYCU XCP
| RGTUQPGP RGT LCCT GP GGP OKITCVKGUCNFQ XCP
|RGTUQPGP&GUVCVKUVKUEJGEQTTGEVKGDGVTGHVIGOKFFGNF | RGTUQPGP RGT LCCT 8QNIGPU FG RTQLGEVKGU \QW
FGDGXQNMKPIVQV|LCCTNĎMUVQGPGOGPOGVIGOKFFGNF
|RGTUQPGPXCPYKG|CNUIGXQNIXCPJGVPCVWWTNĎMCEETGUGP|CNUIGXQNIXCPJGVOKITCVKGUCNFQ
&G\G EĎHGTU VQPGP CCP FCV JGV OKITCVKGUCNFQ IGFWTGPFG
FKGRGTKQFGUFGDGNCPITĎMUVGHCEVQTKUXQQTFGXGTCPFGTKPI
van de totale bevolking in België.
&G QRURNKVUKPI XCP FG VQVCNG DGXQNMKPIUEĎHGTU RGT NGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKG IGGHV GGP DGGNF XCP JGV XGTNQQR XCP FG
GRAFIEK 2
$Ď FG CPCN[UG XCP FG NGGHVĎFUUVTWEVWWT YQTFV FQQTICCPU
GGPQRURNKVUKPIIGOCCMVVWUUGPFGDGXQNMKPIQRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎFGPFGCPFGTGDGXQNMKPIUECVGIQTKGÇPOGVPCOGFG
LQPIGTGPGPFGQWFGTGP+PFKVCTVKMGNYGTFGTXQQTIGQRVGGTFFGDGXQNMKPIQRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎFIGNĎMVGUVGNNGPOGV
FGNGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKGXCP|VQVGPOGV|LCCT&GNGGHVĎF
XCP | LCCT YGTF IGMQ\GP CNU NGGHVĎFUITGPU QOFCV FKV
XCPCH|FGYGVVGNĎMGRGPUKQGPNGGHVĎFYQTFVKP$GNIKÇ
&G5VWFKGEQOOKUUKGXQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPIJCPVGGTVFG\GNHFG
DGPCFGTKPIKPJCCTXGTUNCIXCP|
8QNIGPU FG TGEGPVUVG FGOQITCƂUEJG XQQTWKV\KEJVGP \QW
FGCCPITQGKXCPFGDGXQNMKPIQRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎFUVGTMXGTVTCIGPIGFWTGPFGFGRGTKQFG|GP\GNHUPGICVKGH
YQTFGPXCPCH|8CPCH|\QWGTQRPKGWYGGPVQGPCOGMQOGPVQVCCPJGVGKPFGXCPFGRTQLGEVKGRGTKQFGKP
1XGTJGVIGJGGNXCPFGRGTKQFG||\QWFG
DGXQNMKPI QR CTDGKFUNGGHVĎF OGV QPIGXGGT | RGTUQPGPCCPITQGKGP7KVIGFTWMVKPXGTJQWFKPIVQVFGVQVCNG
DGXQNMKPI \QW JGV CCPFGGN XCP FG\G NGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKG
XTĎYGN QPCHIGDTQMGP VGTWINQRGP XCP QPIGXGGT KP|VQVKP
&GNGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKGXCPFGRGTUQPGPXCP|LCCTGPQWFGT
FCCTGPVGIGP\QWVĎFGPUFGRGTKQFG||XQQTVFWTGPFVQGPGOGPOGVDĎPC|OKNLQGPKPVQVCCN7KVIGFTWMV
(145'61'0#/'8#0&'#(*#0-'.č-*'+&54#6+18114#.#.5)'81.)8#0''061'0#/'8#0&'17&'4'
BEVOLKING
AFHANKELIJKHEIDSRATIO
(verhouding personen van 67 jaar en ouder t.o.v.
18 tot 66-jarigen, in %)
VERANDERING IN HET BEVOLKINGSAANTAL
(jaar-op-jaar verandering van de bevolking per
leeftijdscategorie, duizenden personen)
80
80
45
45
70
70
40
40
60
60
35
35
50
50
30
30
40
40
30
30
25
25
20
20
20
20
10
10
15
15
10
10
0
0
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
0
2020
0
2015
–20
2010
5
–20
2005
5
2000
–10
1995
–10
1995
1.2
NGGHVĎFUUVTWEVWWT XCP FG DGXQNMKPI &G\G UVTWEVWWT \CN
KP FG VQGMQOUV CCP\KGPNĎMG YĎ\KIKPIGP QPFGTICCP OGV
DGNCPITĎMGGEQPQOKUEJGGPDWFIGVVCKTGIGXQNIGP
18-66 jaar
67 jaar en ouder
$TQPPGP(GFGTCCN2NCPDWTGCW(1&'EQPQOKGs#&50$$
&GEGODGT
\
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
97
'%101/+5%*'$'&4č8+)*'+&
XGTCPFGTKPIURGTEGPVCIGUVQXJGVXQQTICCPFGLCCT
–1
–2
–2
–3
–3
2060
–1
2055
0
2050
0
2045
1
2040
1
2035
2
2030
2
2025
3
2020
3
2015
4
2010
4
2005
&G\G VYGG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP NKIIGP CCP FG DCUKU XCP GGP
FWKFGNĎMG XGTQWFGTKPI XCP FG DGXQNMKPI &KG YQTFV
FQQTICCPU U[PVJGVKUEJ YGGTIGIGXGP FQQT FG CHJCPMGNĎMJGKFUTCVKQ XCP QWFGTGP JKGT IGFGƂPKGGTF CNU FG XGTJQWFKPIVWUUGPJGVCCPVCNRGTUQPGPXCP|LCCTGPQWFGT
VGPQR\KEJVGXCPJGVCCPVCNRGTUQPGPXCP|VQVGPOGV
| LCCT &G\G TCVKQ PCO XQQT $GNIKÇ VQG XCP VQV
IGFWTGPFGFGRGTKQFGGP\QWQRDCUKU
XCP FG FGOQITCƂUEJG XQQTWKV\KEJVGP XGTFGT QRNQRGP VQV
DĎPCKP#PFGTUWKVIGFTWMVDGVGMGPVFKVFCV
GTKP|QPIGXGGT|CEVKGXGPRGTIGRGPUKQPGGTFGYCTGP
GP FCV FKV GT VGIGP | PCCT XGTYCEJVKPI PQI UNGEJVU
|\WNNGP\ĎP
GRAFIEK 3
2000
CNU RGTEGPVCIG XCP FG XQNNGFKIG DGXQNMKPI \QW JGV CCPFGGN XCP FG\G NGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKG XTĎYGN QPCHIGDTQMGP
UVĎIGPXCPKP|VQVKP
.
Werkgelegenheid
+P $GNIKÇ DGUVCCP GT ITQVG TGIKQPCNG XGTUEJKNNGP KP\CMG
FGOQITCƂUEJ XGTNQQR )GYGUVGNĎMG IGIGXGPU VQPGP CCP
FCV FG DGXQNMKPI XQQTPCOGNĎM XGTQWFGTV KP JGV 8NCCOU
)GYGUV GP KP OKPFGTG OCVG KP JGV 9CCNU )GYGUV +P
JGV$TWUUGNU*QQHFUVGFGNĎM)GYGUVFCCTGPVGIGPDNĎHVFG
DGXQNMKPI QR CTDGKFUNGGHVĎF IGFWTGPFG FG JGNG RGTKQFG
UVGTMGT VQGPGOGP FCP FG DGXQNMKPI QR RGPUKQGPNGGHVĎF
&KVMCPXGTMNCCTFYQTFGPFQQTFGLQPIGNGGHVĎFUUVTWEVWWT
XCP FG $TWUUGNUG DGXQNMKPI OGGT MKPFGTGP GP RGTUQPGP
QRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎFOGVPCOGKPFGNGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKGXCP
|VQV|LCCTGPFQQTFGUVGTMGTGITQGKXCPFGDGXQNMKPI
QRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎFKP$TWUUGN
2. 'EQPQOKUEJGGPDWFIGVVCKTG
IGXQNIGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPI
&G XGTITĎ\KPI XCP FG DGXQNMKPI MCP QOUEJTGXGP YQTFGP
CNUGGPFGOQITCƂUEJUWEEGUXGTJCCN6GIGNĎMGTVĎFUVGNVFG\G
ontwikkeling de overheid voor een aantal uitdagingen wat
DGVTGHV FG \QTI XQQT FG QWFGT YQTFGPFG DGXQNMKPI GP
FG FCCTOGG XGTDQPFGP JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP JGV $GNIKUEJG
UQEKCNGOQFGN
2.1
'EQPQOKUEJGIGXQNIGP
*GV GGTFGT DGURTQMGP XGTNQQR XCP FG DGXQNMKPI QR
CTDGKFUNGGHVĎF JGGHV DGNCPITĎMG KORNKECVKGU XQQT JGV
ITQGKRQVGPVKGGN XCP FG GEQPQOKG 8QNIGPU JGV TGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQ KP JGV XGTUNCI XCP FG 5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG XQQT
FG 8GTITĎ\KPI XCP| \QW FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITQGK
KOOGTU CHPGOGP VGP QR\KEJVG XCP FG RGTKQFG XÏÏT FG
*GVCCPFGGNXCPFGECVGIQTKGXCPFGLQPIGTGP
|LCCT\QWQXGTFGJGNG
XQQTURGNNKPIURGTKQFGTGNCVKGHEQPUVCPVDNĎXGPTQPFXCPFGVQVCNGDGXQNMKPI
98
\
Arbeidsproductiviteit
Gemiddelde bbp-groei
$TQP5%X8
ƂPCPEKÇNG GP GEQPQOKUEJG ETKUKU GP XCPCH | IGOKFFGNF PQI UNGEJVU QPIGXGGT RGT LCCT DGFTCIGP &G
LCCTNĎMUG UVĎIKPI XCP FG CTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKV \QW IGNGKFGNĎM CCPVTGMMGP XCP KP| VQV XCPCH
| GP \Q FG DGNCPITĎMUVG GP PCIGPQGI GPKIG OQVQT
XCP FG GEQPQOKUEJG ITQGK YQTFGP $ĎIGXQNI \QW FG
IGOKFFGNFG RQVGPVKÇNG GEQPQOKUEJG ITQGK IGFWTGPFG FG
RGTKQFG| | DGFTCIGP VGIGP IGOKFFGNF
KP FG RGTKQFG XÏÏT FG ƂPCPEKÇNG GP GEQPQOKUEJG
ETKUKU
+PFGOGGUVG'WTQRGUGNCPFGPYQTFVGGPUQQTVIGNĎMXGTNQQRXGTYCEJV1QMFCCT\QWFGVQGPCOGXCPFGCTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKVFGDGNCPITĎMUVGOQVQTXCPFGGEQPQOKUEJG
groei worden.
2.2
Budgettaire gevolgen
1RDWFIGVVCKTXNCMNGKFVFGXGTITĎ\KPIFGMQOGPFGFGEGPPKC VQV GGP UVĎIKPI XCP FG MQUVGP XQQT FG QXGTJGKF &KV
KUXQQTPCOGNĎMJGVIGXQNIXCPJGVHGKVFCVOGGTOGPUGP
CCPURTCCM MWPPGP OCMGP QR GGP RGPUKQGP GP FCV FG
MQUVGPXQQTFGIG\QPFJGKFU\QTIVQGPGOGPQPFGTOGGT
FQQTFGXGTQWFGTKPIXCPFGDGXQNMKPI#NNG'WTQRGUGNCPFGPYQTFGPOGVFKVRTQDNGGOIGEQPHTQPVGGTF\ĎJGVKP
WKVGGPNQRGPFG OCVG &G XGTUEJKNNGP YGGTURKGIGNGP FGGNU
FGFKXGTUKVGKVXCPFGRGPUKQGPUVGNUGNU
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
+P $GNIKÇ UVGNV FG 5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG XQQT FG 8GTITĎ\KPI
5%X8 TCOKPIGP QR XCP FG DWFIGVVCKTG MQUVGP XCP FG
XGTITĎ\KPI FKG YQTFGP IGFGƂPKGGTF CNU FG XGTCPFGTKPI
XCPFGUQEKCNGWKVMGTKPIGPKPXGTJQWFKPIVQVJGVDDR
&G YGGTUNCI XCP FG XGTQWFGTKPI XCP FG DGXQNMKPI QR
FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP YQTFV IGTCCOF CCP FG JCPF
XCP RTQLGEVKGU XCP FG UQEKCNG WKVMGTKPIGP CCPIG\KGP FGOQITCƂUEJG YĎ\KIKPIGP GGP DGNCPITĎM GHHGEV
JGDDGP QR FG\G WKVICXGP *KGTDĎ YQTFV GGP CCPVCN
FGOQITCƂUEJG UQEKQGEQPQOKUEJG OCETQGEQPQOKUEJG GP UQEKCNG DGNGKFUJ[RQVJGUGP IGJCPVGGTF $Ď FG
OQFGNNGTKPI YQTFV WKVIGICCP XCP GGP QPIGYĎ\KIF
TGIGNIGXGPFMCFGTOGVKPDGITKRXCPFGTGGFUIQGFIGMGWTFG JGTXQTOKPIGP QPFGT OGGT KP\CMG RGPUKQGPGP
/CCVTGIGNGPFKGQRJGVQIGPDNKMXCPFGRWDNKECVKGXCP
JGVXGTUNCIXCPFG5VWFKGEQOOKUUKGXQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPI
PQI PKGV FWKFGNĎM QOUEJTGXGP YCTGP YQTFGP DWKVGP
DGUEJQWYKPIIGNCVGP
8QNIGPU FG OGGUV TGEGPVG TCOKPIGP XCP FG
5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG XQQT FG 8GTITĎ\KPI FKG FCVGTGP XCP
LWNK| \QWFGP FG FGOQITCƂUEJG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP
GTVQGNGKFGPFCVFGUQEKCNGWKVMGTKPIGPQRNCPIGVGTOĎP
GRAFIEK 4
$7&)'66#+4'-156'08#0&'8'4)4č<+0)
XGTCPFGTKPIXCPFGUQEKCNGWKVMGTKPIGPKPRTQEGPVRWPVXCP
JGVDDRVQX|
–0,5
–1,0
–1,0
–1,5
–1,5
2060
0,0
–0,5
2055
0,5
0,0
2050
1,0
0,5
2045
1,5
1,0
2040
2,0
1,5
2035
2,5
2,0
2030
3,0
2,5
2025
3,0
2020
3,5
2015
3,5
Pensioenen (1)
Gezondheidszorg
Arbeidsongeschiktheid
Werkloosheid
Kinderbijslag
Overige sociale uitgaven
XGTFGT VQGPGOGP KP XGTIGNĎMKPI OGV| <Q \QW JGV
IGJGGN XCP FG UQEKCNG WKVMGTKPIGP XQNIGPU JGV TGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQ UVĎIGP XCP XCP JGV DDR KP| VQV
KPPCGGPTGEQTFRGKNXCPVGJGDDGP
DGTGKMV IGFWTGPFG FG RGTKQFG 6ĎFGPU FKG
RGTKQFG\QWFGPFGDWFIGVVCKTGMQUVGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPI
DĎIGXQNIGGPRKGMXCP|RTQEGPVRWPVNCVGPQRVGMGPGP
GP FCCTPC IGNGKFGNĎM CHPGOGP VQV | RTQEGPVRWPV KP
&GWKVICXGPXQQTRGPUKQGPGPGPIG\QPFJGKFU\QTI
\QWFGP IGFWTGPFG FG RGTKQFG| | UVĎIGP OGV
TGURGEVKGXGNĎM | GP | RTQEGPVRWPV DDR #NNG CPFGTG
WKVICXGPUCOGP\QWFGPFCNGPOGV|RTQEGPVRWPVDDR
8QQTCN FG WKVICXGP KP XGTDCPF OGV FG YGTMNQQUJGKFUWKVMGTKPIGP s| RTQEGPVRWPV DDR GP FG MKPFGTDĎUNCI
s| RTQEGPVRWPV DDR \QWFGP VGTWINQRGP &KG FCNKPI
KU JGV IGXQNI XCP FG UNGEJVU IGFGGNVGNĎMG YGNXCCTVUCCPRCUUKPIGP XCP FG HQTHCKVCKTG WKVMGTKPIGP OCCT QQM XCP
JGV CHPGOGPF CCPVCN IGTGEJVKIFGP KP JGV IGXCN XCP FG
YGTMNQQUJGKFUWKVICXGP
'TFKGPVDGPCFTWMVVGYQTFGPFCVQOFG\GXQQTWKV\KEJVGP
VG DGYGTMUVGNNKIGP GT PQQF KU CCP GGP CEVKGH DGNGKF QO
FG RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGK VG QPFGTUVGWPGP GP FG CTDGKFUOCTMVRCTVKEKRCVKG VG XGTJQIGP &GTIGNĎMG TCOKPIGP \ĎP
DQXGPFKGP UNGEJVU KPFKECVKGH CCPIG\KGP \G GTI IGXQGNKI
\ĎPXQQTXGTCPFGTKPIGPOGVDGVTGMMKPIVQVFGCCPIGPQOGP J[RQVJGUGP 4COKPIGP FKG WKVICCP XCP GGP CPFGTG
J[RQVJGUGKP\CMGFGLCCTNĎMUGRTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGKYQTFGP
DGURTQMGPKPFGGN|
1R'WTQRGGUPKXGCWYQTFGPGXGPGGPUTCOKPIGPQRIGUVGNFXCPFGDWFIGVVCKTGKORCEVXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPI&G
'WTQRGUG %QOOKUUKG GP FG NKFUVCVGP YGTMGP JKGTXQQT
UCOGP NCPIGVGTOĎPRTQLGEVKGU WKV KP JGV MCFGT XCP FG
YGTMITQGR 8GTITĎ\KPI XCP JGV %QOKVÅ XQQT GEQPQOKUEJGRQNKVKGM&GGGTUVGRTQLGEVKGUXCPFG\GVGEJPKUEJG
YGTMITQGR FKG KP | YGTF QRIGTKEJV FCVGTGP XCP
|GPJCFFGPGPMGNDGVTGMMKPIQRFGWKVICXGPXQQT
RGPUKQGPGPGPIG\QPFJGKFU\QTI+P|YGTFGPFG\G
IGIGXGPU XGTXQNNGFKIF OGV RTQLGEVKGU XQQT QPFGTYĎUWKVICXGP GP YGTMNQQUJGKFUWKVMGTKPIGP *KGTWKV DNĎMV
FCV DĎPC CNNG NKFUVCVGP XCP FG '7 VG OCMGP \WNNGP
MTĎIGP OGV GGP CCP\KGPNĎMG VQGPCOG XCP FG NGGHVĎFUIGDQPFGP QXGTJGKFUWKVICXGP &G OGVJQFQNQIKG
FKG FG 'WTQRGUG %QOOKUUKG JKGTXQQT IGDTWKMV KU PKGV
XQNNGFKI XGTIGNĎMDCCT OGV FKG XCP FG 5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG
XQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPI
Totaal
$TQP5%X8
&GVQGPCOGXCPFGWKVICXGPXQQTRGPUKQGPGPVGIGP|
|RTQEGPVRWPVDDR
MCPCNUXQNIVYQTFGPQRIGURNKVUV|RTQEGPVRWPVXQQTJGVYGTMPGOGTUUVGNUGN
|RTQEGPVRWPVXQQTJGV\GNHUVCPFKIGPUVGNUGNGP|RTQEGPVRWPVXQQTFG
RGPUKQGPGPXCPFGQXGTJGKFUUGEVQT
&GEGODGT
\
7KV GGP XGTIGNĎMKPI XCP FG GGTUVG VYCCNH NCPFGP FKG
FGGN WKVOCCMVGP XCP JGV GWTQIGDKGF QR DCUKU XCP FG
EĎHGTU WKV JGV #IGKPI 4GRQTV| XCP FG 'WTQRGUG
%QOOKUUKG DNĎMV FCV FG NGGHVĎFUIGDQPFGP WKVICXGP
KP JGV GWTQIGDKGF CNU IGJGGN OGV | RTQEGPVRWPV
DDR \QWFGP VQGPGOGP QXGT FG RGTKQFG &'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
99
GRAFIEK 5
+06'40#6+10#.'8'4)'.č-+0)8#0&'8'49#%*6'8'4#0&'4+0)+0&'.''(6č&5)'$10&'018'4*'+&57+6)#8'0
XGTCPFGTKPIGPKPRTQEGPVRWPVDDRQXGTFGRGTKQFG
BELANGRIJKSTE CATEGORIEËN IN DE
LEEFTIJDSGEBONDEN OVERHEIDSUITGAVEN
TOTALE LEEFTIJDSGEBONDEN OVERHEIDSUITGAVEN
8
8
Recente
pensioenhervorming
7
6
7
Pensioenen
6
5
5
4
4
Gezondheidszorg
3
3
Gemiddelde eurogebied 1,5 (1)
2
1
1
0
0
–1
–1
–2
–2
–3
–3
LU
BE
DE
NL
AT
BE
FI
IE
PT
ES
IT
FR
Onderwijs
2
Werkloosheid
Totaal
EL
–1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
België
België na de recente pensioenhervorming
Eurogebied
$TQPPGP'%0$$
*GVIGOKFFGNFGDGFTCCIV|KPFKGPTGMGPKPIYQTFVIGJQWFGPOGVFGTGEGPVG$GNIKUEJGRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI
#EJVGTFKVIGOKFFGNFGICCPGEJVGTITQVGXGTUEJKNNGPVWUUGPFGNKFUVCVGPUEJWKN#CPFGGPGMCPVXCPJGVURGEVTWOMCPGGPITQGRXCPNCPFGPQPFGTUEJGKFGPYQTFGP
PCOGNĎM .WZGODWTI $GNIKÇ XÏÏT FG RGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPIGP&WKVUNCPFYCCTKPFGXGTYCEJVGVQGPCOGXCP
FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP | RTQEGPVRWPV DDR QH OGGT DGNQQRV
#CPFGCPFGTGMCPVKUGTGGPITQGRXCPNCPFGP
DGUVCCPFG WKV 5RCPLG +VCNKÇ (TCPMTĎM GP )TKGMGPNCPF
YCCT FG NGGHVĎFUIGDQPFGP QXGTJGKFUWKVICXGP VĎFGPU
FG RGTKQFG | \QWFGP CHPGOGP &G FCNKPI KP
FG\GNCPFGPMCPITQVGPFGGNUXGTMNCCTFYQTFGPFQQTFCV
FG QXGTJGKFUWKVICXGP KP XGTDCPF OGV FG RGPUKQGPGP
IGFWTGPFG FG RTQLGEVKGRGTKQFG VGTWINQRGP CNU IGXQNI
XCPTGGFUFQQTIGXQGTFGJGTXQTOKPIGP
$GNIKÇ DGJQQTV VQV FG NCPFGP OGV JQIGT FCP IGOKFFGNFGDWFIGVVCKTGMQUVGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPI\GNHUKPFKGP
TGMGPKPI YQTFV IGJQWFGP OGV FG PGGTYCCTVUG KORCEV
XCP FG RGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI XCP| &KV KU XQQTPCOGNĎM VQG VG UEJTĎXGP CCP JGV HGKV FCV FG XGTYCEJVG
&G'WTQRGUG%QOOKUUKGJKGNFKPJGVQQTURTQPMGNĎMG#IGKPI4GRQTV|PQI
IGGPTGMGPKPIOGVFGKORCEVXCPFGRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPIXCP|'KPFXQTKI
LCCTRWDNKEGGTFG\GGXGPYGNGGPCCPIGRCUVGTCOKPIXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP
XQQT$GNIKÇYCCTKPFG\GRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPIYGNKPCCPOGTMKPIYQTFV
IGPQOGP+PFG\GTCOKPIYGTFGPFGMQUVGPXQQT$GNIKÇDĎIGUVGNFXCP|PCCT
|RTQEGPVRWPVDDR&GXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPXQQTJGVGWTQIGDKGF\QWFGPFQQT
FG\GCCPRCUUKPIXQQT$GNIKÇFCNGPXCP|VQV|RTQEGPVRWPVDDR
\
VQGPCOGXCPFGRGPUKQGPWKVICXGPKP$GNIKÇCCP\KGPNĎM
JQIGTNKIVFCPIGOKFFGNFKPJGVGWTQIGDKGF
3. 9CV\ĎPJQWFDCTG
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP!
3.1
6JGQTGVKUEJEQPEGRVXCPJQWFDCTG
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP
&G JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP KU IGGP
GGPFWKFKIEQPEGRV+PVWËVKGHKUJGVPQEJVCPUFWKFGNĎMFCV
JQWFDCTG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP KORNKEGTGP FCV FG QXGTJGKF
GGPYCPDGVCNKPIQRFGQXGTJGKFUUEJWNFMCPXGTOĎFGPGP
FWUUQNXCDGNKU
'GP CNIGOGGP CCPXCCTFG FGƂPKVKG XCP GGP JQWFDCTG
QXGTJGKFUUEJWNFQRNCPIGVGTOĎPJQWFVKPFCVFGQXGTJGKF
JCCTJWKFKIGXGTRNKEJVKPIGPKPXGTDCPFOGVFGUEJWNF\CN
MWPPGPPCMQOGPCCPFGJCPFXCPVQGMQOUVKIGRTKOCKTG
QXGTUEJQVVGP FKV \ĎP QXGTUEJQVVGP QR FG DGITQVKPIUDCNCPU QPIGTGMGPF TGPVGNCUVGP (QTOGGN JGGV JGV FCV CCP
FGKPVGTVGORQTGNGDWFIGVTGUVTKEVKGOQGVYQTFGPXQNFCCP
YCV DGVGMGPV FCV FG YCCTFG XCP FG JWKFKIG UEJWNF IGNĎM KU CCP FG JWKFKIG YCCTFG XCP VQGMQOUVKIG RTKOCKTG
QXGTUEJQVVGP &CCTDĎ YQTFV XGTQPFGTUVGNF FCV CCP FG
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
JWKFKIG EQPVTCEVWGNG XGTRNKEJVKPIGP KP XGTDCPF OGV FG
UEJWNF YQTFV XQNFCCP GP GT FWU IGGP YCPDGVCNKPI QH
WKVUVGNRNCCVUXKPFVGPFCVUEJWNFGXGPOKPFQQTFGOQPGVCKTGQXGTJGKFYQTFVIGOQPGVKUGGTFFQQTOKFFGNXCPGGP
QRNQRGPFGKPƃCVKG+PFKGPFGJWKFKIGUEJWNFITQVGTKUFCP
FG IGCEVWCNKUGGTFG YCCTFG XCP FG VQGMQOUVKIG RTKOCKTG
QXGTUEJQVVGPFKGDĎQPIGYĎ\KIFDGNGKFYQTFGPXGTYCEJV
FCP\ĎPGZVTCEQPUQNKFCVKGOCCVTGIGNGPQPCHYGPFDCCTQO
FG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP VG ICTCPFGTGP#CPIG\KGPGTGGPDQXGPITGPUKUCCPFGJCCNDCCTJGKF
XCP VQGMQOUVKIG RTKOCKTG QXGTUEJQVVGP DĎXQQTDGGNF KP
XGTDCPFOGVFGDGITGPUFGDGNCUVKPIFTWMFKGGGPGEQPQOKGXGTFTCCIVQHUCPGTKPIUOQGJGKFFKGPCXGTNQQRXCPVĎF
MCP QRVTGFGP JGGHV FG KPVGTVGORQTGNG DWFIGVTGUVTKEVKG
VQVIGXQNIFCVGTGGPDQXGPITGPUKUCCPFGUEJWNFITCCF
DQXGPFKVOCZKOWORGKNYQTFVFGQXGTJGKFKPUQNXCDGN
CN FCP PKGV EQPUQNKFCVKGOCCVTGIGNGP OQGV PGOGP QO
CCP FG KPVGTVGORQTGNG DWFIGVTGUVTKEVKG VG XQNFQGP
OQGVGP VCN XCP J[RQVJGUGP KP CCPOGTMKPI YQTFGP
IGPQOGP DĎXQQTDGGNF OGV DGVTGMMKPI VQV FG VQGMQOUVKIG OCETQGEQPQOKUEJG QOIGXKPI JGV XGTNQQR
XCP QXGTJGKFUKPMQOUVGP GP WKVICXGP DĎ QPIGYĎ\KIF
DGNGKF TGPVGXQGVGP GP\ 1R DCUKU XCP FGTIGNĎMG
XGTQPFGTUVGNNKPIGP DGTGMGPV FG 'WTQRGUG %QOOKUUKG
VYGGJQWFDCCTJGKFUKPFKECVQTGPsFG\QIGJGVGP5|GP
5|sFKGCCPIGXGPKPYGNMGOCVGJGVRTKOCKTUCNFQKP
FG VQGMQOUV OQGV XGTDGVGTGP QO FG UEJWNF QR GGP
DGRCCNF PKXGCW VG JQWFGP &CCTDĎ YQTFV VGNMGPU QQM
TGMGPKPI IGJQWFGP OGV FG XGTYCEJVG DWFIGVVCKTG
MQUVGP XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI 8QQT $GNIKÇ YGTF FG PGGTYCCTVUGKORCEVXCPFGRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPIXCP|
KPCCPOGTMKPIIGPQOGP
&GKPVGTVGORQTGNGDWFIGVTGUVTKEVKGDGVGMGPVPKGVFCVGGP
NCPF OGV QXGTJGKFUUEJWNFGP \KEJ KP FG VQGMQOUV GPMGN
PQIRTKOCKTGDGITQVKPIUQXGTUEJQVVGPMCPXGTQQTNQXGPQO
UQNXCDGNVG\ĎP*GVMCP\ĎPFCVVGMQTVGPGPGGPVQGPCOG
XCPFGUEJWNFKPDGRCCNFGRGTKQFGU\GNHUYGPUGNĎM\ĎP1R
NCPIGVGTOĎPOQGVGPFKGGEJVGTIGEQORGPUGGTFYQTFGP
OGVQXGTUEJQVVGP
3.2.1
*QGYGNFGUQNXCDKNKVGKVXCPFGQXGTJGKFXCPWKVGGPNCPIGVGTOĎPRGTURGEVKGH OQGV YQTFGP DGMGMGP MWPPGP QPVYKMMGNKPIGP QR MQTVG VGTOĎP GT GGP KORCEV QR JGDDGP
KP JGV DĎ\QPFGT OGV DGVTGMMKPI VQV FG NKSWKFKVGKV XCP FG
QXGTJGKFUUEJWNF,CCTNĎMUYQTFVGGPDGNCPITĎMFGGNXCPFG
UEJWNFKOOGTUJGTPKGWYFGPFGƂPCPEKÇNGOCTMVGPOQGVGP DĎIGXQNI XQQTVFWTGPF DGTGKF IGXQPFGP YQTFGP QO
FGUEJWNFVG
JGTƂPCPEKGTGPCPFGTUFTGKIVXQQTFGQXGTJGKFGGPNKSWKFKVGKVURTQDNGGO+PDGRCCNFGRGTKQFGU\QCNU
VĎFGPU FG TGEGPVG QXGTJGKFUUEJWNFGPETKUKU FKG KP JGV DĎ\QPFGTUQOOKIGNCPFGPXCPJGVGWTQIGDKGFVTQHMWPPGP
FGƂPCPEKÇNGOCTMVGPJGVXGTVTQWYGPKPFGQXGTJGKFXCP
GGP NCPF XGTNKG\GP YCCTFQQT FG ƂPCPEKGTKPI \GGT FWWT
QH\GNHUQPOQIGNĎMYQTFV*QGYGNJGVUGPVKOGPVXCPFG
ƂPCPEKÇNGOCTMVGPPKGVCNVĎFJGVHWPFCOGPVGNGKP\KEJVKP
FGJQWFDCCTJGKFXCPFGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPYGGTURKGIGNV
MCPGGPIGDTGMCCPVQGICPIVQVƂPCPEKGTKPIQRMQTVGVGTOĎPFGUQNXCDKNKVGKVKPJGVIGFTCPIDTGPIGP$ĎFGDTGFG
CPCN[UG XCP FG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP
OQGV FWU QQM TGMGPKPI IGJQWFGP YQTFGP OGV HCEVQTGP
FKGFGJQWFDCCTJGKFXCPFGUEJWNFDGËPXNQGFGPQRMQTVG
VGTOĎP\QCNUFGNKSWKFKVGKV
3.2
Indicatoren van de houdbaarheid van de
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP
1O FG JWKFKIG YCCTFG XCP VQGMQOUVKIG DGITQVKPIUUCNFK VG DGTGMGPGP VGPGKPFG PC VG ICCP QH GGP NCPF
&GEGODGT
\
&G5JQWFDCCTJGKFUKPFKECVQT
&G5JQWFDCCTJGKFUKPFKECVQTXCPFG'WTQRGUG%QOOKUUKG
UNWKVPCWYCCPDĎFGKPVGTVGORQTGNGDWFIGVTGUVTKEVKG*Ď
IGGHV RGT NCPF YGGT YGNMG XGTCPFGTKPI XCP JGV UVTWEtureel RTKOCKT UCNFQ PQFKI KU QO FG UEJWNFITCCF VG
UVCDKNKUGTGP QR NCPIG VGTOĎP TGMGPKPI JQWFGPF OGV FG
MQUVGP XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI #NU GGP NCPF FG\G UVTWEVWTGNGXGTCPFGTKPIQPOKFFGNNĎMTGCNKUGGTVKUXQNFCCPCCPFG
KPVGTVGORQTGNGDWFIGVTGUVTKEVKG
/GV FG 5KPFKECVQT IGGHV FG 'WTQRGUG %QOOKUUKG FWU
GGP KPFKECVKG XCP FG DWFIGVVCKTG CCPRCUUKPI FKG GGP
NCPF OQGV XGTYG\GPNĎMGP QO FG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP QR NCPIG VGTOĎP VG XGT\GMGTGP 'GP
RQUKVKGXG 5KPFKECVQT DGVGMGPV FCV FG VQGMQOUVKIG RTKOCKTG QXGTUEJQVVGP DĎ QPIGYĎ\KIF DGNGKF GP TGMGPKPI
JQWFGPFOGVFGMQUVGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIQPVQGTGKMGPF
\ĎPQOFGJWKFKIGQXGTJGKFUUEJWNFVGMWPPGPVGTWIDGVCNGP'GP5KPFKECVQTXCPDDR\QCNUXQQT$GNIKÇ
IGGHV CCP FCV JGV UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT UCNFQ RGTOCPGPV
DDR JQIGT \QW OQGVGP NKIIGP FCP JGV JWKFKIG
UVTWEVWTGGNRTKOCKTUCNFQQOFGUEJWNFITCCFVGUVCDKNKUGTGPQRNCPIGVGTOĎP
'GP RQUKVKGXG 5KPFKECVQT DGVGMGPV PKGV PQQF\CMGNĎM
FCV FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP QPJQWFDCCT \ĎP OCCT YGN
FCV EQPUQNKFCVKGKPURCPPKPIGP PQFKI \ĎP QO FG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP VG YCCTDQTIGP
&G YCCTFG XCP FG 5KPFKECVQT OQGV IG\KGP YQTFGP
CNU GGP TGHGTGPVKGRWPV GP PKGV PQQF\CMGNĎM CNU GGP
DGNGKFUCCPDGXGNKPI <Q KU JGV OQIGNĎM FCV GGP UCPGTKPIUKPURCPPKPIVGTYCCTFGXCP5|QRMQTVGVGTOĎPPKGV
YGPUGNĎMKU8QQTVUXCNVQRVGOGTMGPFCVFG5KPFKECVQT
&KVYKN\GIIGPIG\WKXGTFXQQTPKGVTGEWTTGPVGHCEVQTGPGPFGKPXNQGFXCPFG
EQPLWPEVWWT
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
GRAFIEK 6
5+0&+%#6148'4'+56'8'4#0&'4+0)8#0*'65647%674''.24+/#+45#.&11/##0&'+06'46'/214'.'
BUDGETRESTRICTIE TE VOLDOEN
KPDDR
NIVEAU VAN DE S2-INDICATOR
VERANDERING VAN DE S2-INDICATOR (2015-2012)
10
3
2
8
1
6
0
4
–1
2
–2
–3
0
–4
–2
–5
–4
–6
NL
LU
FI
AT
BE
DE
IE
PT
FR
ES
IT
NL
LU
FI
AT
BE
DE
Initiële begrotingspositie
Initiële begrotingspositie
Vergrijzingskosten
Vergrijzingskosten
IE
PT
FR
ES
IT
S2-indicator in 2015
J
S2-indicator in 2012
$TQP'%
IGGP DGVTGMMKPI JGGHV QR JGV XGTGKUVG PKXGCW XCP FG
UEJWNFITCCF OCCT GPMGN FG UVCDKNKUCVKG GTXCP DGQQIV
$ĎIGXQNIOQGVFG5KPFKECVQTOGVFGPQFKIGXQQT\KEJVKIJGKF IGËPVGTRTGVGGTF YQTFGP KP JGV DĎ\QPFGT XQQT
NCPFGPOGVGGPJQIGUEJWNFITCCF
&G5KPFKECVQTMCPYQTFGPQRIGURNKVUVKPVYGGEQORQPGPVGP PCOGNĎM FG DWFIGVVCKTG CCPRCUUKPI FKG PQFKI
KU OGV JGV QQI QR FG KPKVKÇNG DGITQVKPIURQUKVKG GP FG
DWFIGVVCKTG CCPRCUUKPI FKG PQFKI KU VGP IGXQNIG XCP
FGXGTYCEJVGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP&GGGTUVGEQORQPGPV
IGGHV JGV XGTUEJKN YGGT VWUUGP JGV UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT
UCNFQ FCV PQFKI KU QO FG JWKFKIG UEJWNFITCCF VG UVCDKNKUGTGP GP JGV JWKFKI UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT UCNFQ GTXCP
WKVICCPFG FCV FKV JWKFKI UCNFQ GGWYKI JGV\GNHFG \QW
DNĎXGP &G VYGGFG EQORQPGPV IGGHV FG GZVTC DWFIGVVCKTG CCPRCUUKPI YGGT FKG PQFKI KU OGV JGV QQI QR FG
XGTYCEJVG VQGMQOUVKIG MQUVGP XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI FKG
GTXQQT \QTIGP FCV JGV JWKFKI UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT UCNFQ
DĎ QPIGYĎ\KIF DGNGKF \QW XGTUNGEJVGTGP GP PKGV EQPUVCPV \QW DNĎXGP &G\G EQORQPGPV MQOV FWU QXGTGGP
OGV FG JWKFKIG XGTFKUEQPVGGTFG YCCTFG XCP FG VQGMQOUVKIGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP
\
8QQT $GNIKÇ DGFTCCIV FG GGTUVG EQORQPGPV DDR
GP FG VYGGFG EQORQPGPV DDR &KV DGVGMGPV FCV
QPIGTGMGPF FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP JGV UVTWEVWTGGN UCNFQ
OGV DDR OQGV XGTDGVGTGP QO FG UEJWNFITCCF VG
UVCDKNKUGTGP QR NCPIG VGTOĎP &CCTGPDQXGP KU PQI GGP
XGTDGVGTKPIXCPJGVUVTWEVWTGGNUCNFQXCPDDRPQFKI
QOFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPQRVGXCPIGP
+PXGTIGNĎMKPIOGVFGCPFGTGQQTURTQPMGNĎMGNCPFGPXCP
JGV GWTQIGDKGF DGXKPFV $GNIKÇ \KEJ KP FG OKFFGPOQQV
+P FG OGGUVG NCPFGP QQM KP $GNIKÇ XQTOGP XQQTCN FG
XGTITĎ\KPIMQUVGP GGP DGFTGKIKPI XQQT FG JQWFDCCTJGKF
XCP FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP 1ROGTMGNĎM KU FG NCIG \GNHU
PGICVKGXG UEQTG XQQT +VCNKÇ JQGYGN FKV NCPF FG JQQIUVG
UEJWNFITCCFJGGHVXCPCNNGXQQTIGUVGNFGNCPFGP&KVMQOV
QOFCVJGVKPKVKÇNGDGITQVKPIUUCNFQXCP+VCNKÇDĎFTCCIVVQV
GGPNKEJVGFCNKPIXCPFGUEJWNF$QXGPFKGP\WNNGPFGMQUVGPKPXGTDCPFOGVFGXGTITĎ\KPIXCPFGDGXQNMKPIPCCT
XGTYCEJVKPIPKGVVQGPGOGP
7KVGGPXGTIGNĎMKPIVWUUGPFG5KPFKECVQTXCP|GPFKG
XCP| DNĎMV FCV FG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPQRNCPIGVGTOĎPKPXTĎYGNCNNGNCPFGPKUXGTDGVGTF
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
behalve in Italië $GNIKÇ DGJQQTV VQV FG NCPFGP OGV FG
UVGTMUVGFCNKPI6GPQR\KEJVGXCP|KUFGXGTGKUVGUVTWEVWTGNG RTKOCKTG KPURCPPKPI VGTWIIGNQRGP OGV DDR
XQQTPCOGNĎM CNU IGXQNI XCP FG IWPUVKIGT XGTYCEJVKPIGP
KP\CMGFGXGTITĎ\KPIMQUVGP&KVJGGHVVGOCMGPOGVGPGT\ĎFUFGUVTWEVWTGNGJGTXQTOKPIGPFKGFGTGIGTKPIGPUKPFU
| VGP WKVXQGT JGDDGP IGNGIF XQQTCN KP\CMG CTDGKFUOCTMVDGNGKFGPRGPUKQGPGPQOFGXGTYCEJVGWKVICXGPVG
DGVGWIGNGPGPFGXGTYCEJVGITQGKVGQPFGTUVGWPGPGPCPFGT\ĎFUGGPJGT\KGPKPIXCPFGFGOQITCƂUEJGJ[RQVJGUGP
1QMFGXGTDGVGTKPIXCPFGUVTWEVWTGNGRTKOCKTGDGITQVKPIURQUKVKGVWUUGP|GP|JGGHVJKGTVQGDĎIGFTCIGP
3.2.2
&G5JQWFDCCTJGKFUKPFKECVQT
&G5JQWFDCCTJGKFUKPFKECVQTXCPFG'WTQRGUG%QOOKUUKG
IGGHVCCPJQGXGGNFGIGEWOWNGGTFGXGTCPFGTKPIXCPJGV
UVTWEVWTGGNRTKOCKTUCNFQIGFWTGPFG|LCCTOQGVDGNQRGP
&G5KPFKECVQTYQTFVUNGEJVUQOFGFTKGLCCTIGRWDNKEGGTFFQQTFG'WTQRGUG
%QOOKUUKGPCOGNĎMKPJGVn(KUECNUWUVCKPCDKNKV[TGRQTVo*GVNCCVUVGTCRRQTVFCVGGTV
XCPDGIKP|
n(KUECN5WUVCKPCDKNKV[4GRQTV|oGPJGVXQTKIGXCPGKPF
6GPUNQVVGYQTFVDĎFGDGTGMGPKPIXCPFGVGNGXGTGPCCPRCUUKPIDĎFG5|TGMGPKPI
IGJQWFGPOGVGGPIGURTGKFGCCPRCUUKPIQXGT|LCCTVGTYĎNFG5|WKVICCVXCPGGP
QPOKFFGNNĎMGCCPRCUUKPIXCPJGVUVTWEVWTGGNUCNFQ
GRAFIEK 7
QOKP|WKVVGMQOGPQRGGPUEJWNFITCCFXCP
DDRFGFTGORGNYCCTFGXQNIGPUJGV8GTFTCIDGVTGHHGPFG
FGYGTMKPIXCPFG'WTQRGUG7PKG
+PVGIGPUVGNNKPIVQVFG5KPFKECVQTXGTGKUVFG5KPFKECVQT
FWUIGGPUVCDKNKUCVKGXCPFGUEJWNFITCCFOCCTGGPEQPXGTIGPVKGPCCTDDR'GPJQIGTGKPKVKÇNGUEJWNFRQUKVKG
DGVGMGPV FCP QQM FCV GGP ITQVGTG KPURCPPKPI XGTGKUV KU
0GVCNUKPFG5KPFKECVQTYQTFVKPFG5KPFKECVQTTGMGPKPIIGJQWFGPOGVFGXGTYCEJVGMQUVGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIOCCTFGRGTKQFGYCCTQRFG5KPFKECVQTDGVTGMMKPI
JGGHVKUDGRGTMVVQV
.
&G 5KPFKECVQT MCP GXGPGGPU YQTFGP QRIGURNKVUV KP FGGNEQORQPGPVGP&GGGTUVGEQORQPGPVFGnKPKVKÇNGDGITQVKPIURQUKVKGo IGGHV CCP JQGXGGN JGV UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT
UCNFQOQGVXGTCPFGTGPQOFGUEJWNFITCCFVGUVCDKNKUGTGP KP FG XGTQPFGTUVGNNKPI FCV FKV UCNFQ VQV | DGJQWFGP DNĎHV &G VYGGFG EQORQPGPV FG nXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPo IGGHV CCP YGNMG GZVTC XGTDGVGTKPI XCP JGV
UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT UCNFQ PQFKI KU QO FG UEJWNFITCCF
VGUVCDKNKUGTGPIGNGVQRFGXGTITĎ\KPIMQUVGP&GFGTFG
EQORQPGPV FG nUEJWNFXGTGKUVGo IGGHV CCP KP YGNMG
5+0&+%#6148'4'+56'8'4#0&'4+0)8#0*'65647%674''.24+/#+45#.&11/''05%*7.&)4##&8#0$$2
6'$'4'+-'06')'0
KPDDR
8
NIVEAU VAN DE S1-INDICATOR
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
–2
–2
–4
–4
–6
–6
VERANDERING VAN DE S1-INDICATOR (2015-2012)
–8
–8
PT
FR
IT
BE
IE
FI
ES
AT
NL
DE
Initiële begrotingspositie
LU
PT
FR
IT
BE
IE
FI
ES
AT
NL
DE
LU
Initiële begrotingspositie
Schuldvereiste
Schuldvereiste
Vergrijzingskosten
Vergrijzingskosten
S1-indicator in 2015
J
S1-indicator in 2012
$TQP'%
&GEGODGT
\
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
OCVG JGV UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT UCNFQ FCCTDQXGPQR OQGV
XGTCPFGTGP QO FG QXGTJGKFUUEJWNF VGIGP | VQV
DDRVGTWIVGDTGPIGP
1O FG UEJWNFITCCF KP $GNIKÇ VGIGP | VGTWI VG DTGPIGP VQV DDR OQGV JGV UVTWEVWTGGN RTKOCKT UCNFQ
XGTDGVGTGP OGV DDR IGURTGKF QXGT | LCCT 8GTWKV
JGV ITQQVUVG FGGN JKGTXCP PCOGNĎM | RTQEGPVRWPV KU
VQGVGUEJTĎXGPCCPFGJQIGUEJWNFITCCFKP$GNIKÇFKGDĎ
FGDGTGMGPKPIXCPFGKPFKECVQTGPDDRDGFTQGI
)GNGVQRFGMQTVGTGRGTKQFGYCCTQRFGKPFKECVQTXCPVQGRCUUKPIKUKUJGVGHHGEVXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIMQUVGPGGPUVWM
DGRGTMVGTFCPKPJGVIGXCNXCPFG5KPFKECVQT
8GTIGNGMGPOGVFGCPFGTGQQTURTQPMGNĎMGNCPFGPXCPJGV
GWTQIGDKGFDNĎMV$GNIKÇCNUIGXQNIXCP\ĎPJQIGUEJWNFITCCFGGPOKPFGTIWPUVKIG5UEQTGVGNCVGPQRVGMGPGP
+VCNKÇOGVGGPUEJWNFITCCFXCPOGGTFCPDDR\QW
GGP\GGTHQTUGKPURCPPKPIOQGVGPNGXGTGPQO\ĎPUEJWNF
VGTWI VG FTKPIGP PCCT JGV XGTGKUVG PKXGCW .WZGODWTI
FCCTGPVGIGP OGV ÅÅP XCP FG OKPUV IQGFG 5UEQTGU
UEQQTV IWPUVKI QR OKFFGNNCPIG VGTOĎP YGIGPU FG NCIG
UEJWNFITCCF XCP QPIGXGGT DDR *GV KU FWU \KPXQN
QOFGUEQTGUXCPDGKFGJQWFDCCTJGKFUKPFKECVQTGPUCOGP
VGDGMĎMGPGPFGXGTUEJKNNGPFGFGGNEQORQPGPVGPKPCCPOGTMKPIVGPGOGP
*QGMCPFGQXGTJGKFKPURGNGPQRFG
WKVFCIKPIXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPI!
&G XQQTICCPFG CPCN[UG OCCMV FWKFGNĎM FCV JGV CCPRCMMGP XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI GGP DGNCPITĎMG RNCCVU QR FG
RQNKVKGMG CIGPFC XGTFKGPV 1O FG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG
QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP QR NCPIG VGTOĎP VG YCCTDQTIGP KP
JGV NKEJV XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI YGTF QR 'WTQRGGU PKXGCW
GGP FTKGNGFKIG DGNGKFUUVTCVGIKG WKVIGYGTMV FKG JKGTPC CNU
NGKFTCCFYQTFVXQQTIGUVGNF&G\GUVTCVGIKGQOXCVGGPIG\QPFOCMKPIXCPFGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPGGPCEVKGHDGNGKF
QOJGVRQVGPVKÇNGDDRVGXGTJQIGPGPGGPDGRGTMKPIXCP
FG XGTITĎ\KPIUIGDQPFGP WKVICXGP +P FKV JQQHFUVWM YQTFGPFG\GFTKGCURGEVGPPCFGTVQGIGNKEJVOGVDĎ\QPFGTG
CCPFCEJVXQQTFGUKVWCVKGKP$GNIKÇ
$WFIGVVCKTGUVTCVGIKG
&GQXGTJGKFFKGPVIG\QPFGDGITQVKPIUUKVWCVKGUVGDGYGTMUVGNNKIGP GP VG JCPFJCXGP CNUQQM FG QXGTJGKFUUEJWNF
VGTWI VG FTKPIGP &KV KU QPFGT OGGT PQQF\CMGNĎM QO FG
PQFKIGDGNGKFUTWKOVGVGETGÇTGPQOFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP
QR VG XCPIGP *KGTVQG OQGV \G GZVTC EQPUQNKFCVKGOCCVTGIGNGP PGOGP VGPGKPFG QR OKFFGNNCPIG VGTOĎP GGP
UVTWEVWTGGN GXGPYKEJV VG DGTGKMGP &G\G UCPGTKPI OQGV
\
XQQTCN DGTWUVGP QR GGP UGNGEVKGXG XGTOKPFGTKPI XCP FG
WKVICXGP &CCTPCCUV OQGV YQTFGP IGUVTGGHF PCCT GGP
EQTTGEVG DGNCUVKPIKPPKPI GP MWPPGP OCTIGU KP UQOOKIG
QPVXCPIUVGPYQTFGPDGPWV
*QGYGNFGQXGTJGKFFCPM\ĎUVTWEVWTGNGOCCVTGIGNGPGTKP
IGUNCCIF KU QO FG XGTYCEJVG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP UVGTM VG
FTWMMGP DNĎXGP FG\G MQUVGP CCP\KGPNĎM +P EQODKPCVKG
OGVFGJQIGQXGTJGKFUUEJWNFFKGJGVETKVGTKWOXCP
DDR XCP JGV 8GTFTCI XCP /CCUVTKEJV XGT QXGTUEJTĎFV GP
JGV DGITQVKPIUVGMQTV FCV KP| PQI DDR DGFTQGIDNĎHVFGJQWFDCCTJGKFXCPFG$GNIKUEJGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPGGPCCPFCEJVURWPV
&QQT\KEJVGJQWFGPCCPJGV'WTQRGUGDGITQVKPIUMCFGT
\QW$GNIKÇFGJQWFDCCTJGKFXCP\ĎPQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP
MWPPGP XTĎYCTGP +PFKGP FG\G XQQTYCCTFG YQTFV XGTXWNF \CN GGP DWFIGVVCKTG OCTIG QPVUVCCP FKG MCP YQTFGPCCPIGYGPFQOFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPQRVGXCPIGP
'PGT\ĎFU\CNFGXGTUPGNFGUEJWNFCHDQWYKOOGTUFGTGPVGNCUVGPFQGPFCNGPGPCPFGT\ĎFUMCPYQTFGPKPIGVGGTF
QRJGVDGITQVKPIUUCNFQ
&KGXKUKGYQTFVIGUVCCHFFQQTFGTGUWNVCVGPXCPGGPUKOWNCVKGQGHGPKPIOGVDGVTGMMKPIVQVJGVXGTNQQRXCPFGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPQRNCPIGVGTOĎP$ĎFG\GQGHGPKPIYQTFV
WKVIGICCPXCPFGJ[RQVJGUGFCVKP|GGPUVTWEVWTGGN
DGITQVKPIUGXGPYKEJV \CN YQTFGP DGTGKMV YCV QXGTGGPMQOVOGVFGFQGNUVGNNKPIKPJGVUVCDKNKVGKVURTQITCOOCXCP
CRTKN|GPFCVFKVGXGPYKEJV\CNIGJCPFJCCHFYQTFGP
VQV KP *GV ƂPCPEKGTKPIUUCNFQ XCP FG QXGTJGKF \QW
PC|VGPFGTGPPCCTGGPVGMQTVXCPDDR0CFCV
FGUEJWNFITCCFQPFGTFGDDRKUIG\CMV\QWJGVVGMQTVQRNQRGPVQVDDR&KVVTCLGEVKUXQNNGFKIEQPUKUVGPV
OGVJGV'WTQRGUGDGITQVKPIUMCFGTYCCTKPYQTFVDGRCCNF
FCV JGV DGITQVKPIUVGMQTV QR OKFFGNNCPIG VGTOĎP OCZKOCCN DDR OCI DGFTCIGP OCCT VQV DDR OCI
QRNQRGPKPNCPFGPYCCTFGUEJWNFITCCFNCIGTKUFCP
DDRGPFGTKUKEQoUQRFGJQWFDCCTJGKFXCPFGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPQRNCPIGVGTOĎPDGRGTMV\ĎP$ĎFG\GQGHGPKPI
YQTFGP XQQTVU FG ITQGKJ[RQVJGUGP WKV JGV TGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQXCPFG5VWFKGEQOOKUUKGXQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPIIGJCPVGGTF 8QNIGPU FCV UEGPCTKQ \CN FG CTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKV
VĎFGPU FG RGTKQFG| | OGV IGOKFFGNF RGT
LCCTVQGPGOGPVGTYĎNFGYGTMIGNGIGPJGKFOGV\CN
ITQGKGPYCCTFQQTFGITQGKXCPFGGEQPQOKUEJGDGFTĎXKIJGKFIGOKFFGNFRGTLCCT\CNDGFTCIGP
8QNIGPU FG\G UKOWNCVKGQGHGPKPI \QW JGV RTKOCKT UCNFQ
DDR DGFTCIGP KP| GP XGTXQNIGPU IGNGKFGNĎM
VGTWINQRGP VQV KP | GP XGTFGT VQV DDR KP
&GVQGIGUVCPGXGTUNGEJVGTKPIXCPJGVRTKOCKTQXGTUEJQVOGVDDRVWUUGP|GP|DGFTCCIVKGVU
OKPFGTFCPFGJGNHVXCPFGVĎFGPUFKGRGTKQFGXGTYCEJVG
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
$TQPPGP5%X8+040$$
1RDCUKUXCPFGOCETQGEQPQOKUEJGJ[RQVJGUGPXCPJGVTGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQXCP
FG5%X8GPXCPFGJ[RQVJGUGFCVFGKORNKEKGVGTGPVGQRFGQXGTJGKFUUEJWNF\QW
UVĎIGPVQVKP|GP\KEJXGTXQNIGPUQRFCVPKXGCW\QWUVCDKNKUGTGP
KORCEVXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP6GIGP|\QWWKVFG
FCNKPIXCPJGVRTKOCKTUWTRNWUGGPOCTIGQPVUVCCPFKGDĎPCQXGTGGPMQOVOGVFGXGTYCEJVGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP&G
UEJWNF\QWTQPFJGVLCCT|QPFGTFGFTGORGNYCCTFG
XCPDDR\CMMGP
1O QQM KP FG VQGMQOUV FG UQEKCNG WKVMGTKPIGP GP FG
CPFGTG WKVICXGP VG MWPPGP ƂPCPEKGTGP \QPFGT FG DGNCUVKPIFTWMDQXGPOCVKIVGOQGVGPQRXQGTGPKUJGVFGTJCNXG
TCCF\CCOQOQXGTGGPMQOUVKIFGTGIGNUXCPJGV'WTQRGUG
DGITQVKPIUMCFGTFGDGITQVKPIUUKVWCVKGVGXGTDGVGTGPVGPGKPFGGGPUVTWEVWTGGNGXGPYKEJVVGDGTGKMGP
6GXGPU FKGPV GGP CEVKGH DGNGKF VG YQTFGP IGXQGTF QO
JGV RQVGPVKÇNG DDR VG XGTJQIGP 8QQTCN QR XNCM XCP FG
DGXQTFGTKPI XCP FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKF \ĎP GT FCCTVQG
OQIGNĎMJGFGP IGNGV QR FG XCPWKV KPVGTPCVKQPCCN RGTURGEVKGH TGNCVKGH NCIG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF KP $GNIKÇ
&CCTPCCUV FKGPV FG CTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKV VG YQTFGP
QPFGTUVGWPF *QGYGN XQQTCN RCTVKEWNKGTG KPKVKCVKGXGP
VGP ITQPFUNCI NKIIGP CCP FG UVĎIKPI XCP FG RTQFWEVKXKVGKV MCP FG QXGTJGKF GGP DGNCPITĎMG DĎFTCIG NGXGTGP
FQQT IWPUVKIG TCPFXQQTYCCTFGP VG ETGÇTGP XKC IGTKEJVG
&GEGODGT
\
EEN GUNSTIG VERLOOP VAN DE
WERKGELEGENHEID VERGT EEN ACTIEF
ARBEIDSMARKTBELEID
KPXCPFGQXGTGGPUVGOOGPFGDGXQNMKPI
Realisaties
80
Raming SCvV
15
70
13
60
11
50
9
40
7
30
5
20
3
2000
5VTCVGIKGXQQTFWWT\COGITQGK
GRAFIEK 9
2060
TGEJVGTUEJCCN
2055
Primair saldo
$GNIKÇ DGUEJKMV PQI QXGT GGP TWKOG OCTIG YCV DGVTGHV
FGVQGPCOGXCPFGYGTMIGNGIGPJGKF+P|DGFTQGI
FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF KP FG NGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKG XCP
| VQV | LCCT KP $GNIKÇ VGTYĎN FG FQGNUVGNNKPI
XQNIGPU FG 'WTQRC| UVTCVGIKG XQQT ITQGK GP DCPGP
DGNQQRV +P FG NGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKG XCP | VQV
| LCCT MYCO FG $GNIKUEJG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF
KP|WKVQRVGTYĎNFGFQGNUVGNNKPIVGIGP|
KUXCUVIGNGIFQR
2050
(KPCPEKGTKPIUUCNFQ
Werkgelegenheid
2045
1XGTJGKFUUEJWNF
NKPMGTUEJCCN
&GGEQPQOKUEJGITQGKXNQGKVXQQTVWKVVYGGEQORQPGPVGP
PCOGNĎMFGITQGKXCPFGYGTMIGNGIGPJGKFGPFGVQGPCOG
XCPFGCTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKV*GVKUFWUXCPDGNCPIDGKFG
EQORQPGPVGP \QXGGN OQIGNĎM VG QPFGTUVGWPGP XKC GGP
CEVKGHQXGTJGKFUDGNGKF
2040
2060
–3
2055
0
2050
–2
2045
20
2040
–1
2035
40
2030
0
2025
60
2020
1
2015
80
2035
1,9
2030
1,4
2025
2
100
2020
3
120
2015
KPDDR
QXGTJGKFUKPXGUVGTKPIGP GP WKVICXGP XQQT QPFGT\QGM
GP QPVYKMMGNKPI FQQT GGP GHƂEKÇPVGTG OCTMVYGTMKPI
QPFGTPGOGTUEJCRGPETGCVKXKVGKVVGDGXQTFGTGPFQQTFG
YGTMKPIXCPFGKPUVGNNKPIGPVGXGTDGVGTGPGP\&GYĎ\G
YCCTQRFGVQGMQOUVKIGQXGTJGKFUWKVICXGPOGVKPDGITKR
XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP MWPPGP YQTFGP IGƂPCPEKGTF
JCPIVKOOGTUKPDGNCPITĎMGOCVGCHXCPFGGEQPQOKUEJG
ITQGKKPFGMQOGPFGLCTGP
2010
HET BEGROTINGSTRAJECT VAN HET
STABILITEITSPROGRAMMA LAAT TOE EEN
&''.8#0&'8'4)4č<+0)5-156'081147+6
TE FINANCIEREN 2005
GRAFIEK 8
Werkgelegenheid totaal (18-66)
H
Werkgelegenheid totaal (20-64)
doelstelling 2020
Werkgelegenheid 55-66 jaar
J
(linkerschaal)
Werkgelegenheid 55-64 jaar
doelstelling 2020
Werkloosheid (1) (rechterschaal)
$TQP5%X8
*GVDGVTGHVFGCFOKPKUVTCVKGXGFGƂPKVKGXCPFGYGTMNQQUJGKFUITCCF
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
1PFCPMUGGPXGTDGVGTKPIVGPQR\KEJVGXCPJGVLCCT
NKIVFGYGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCFXCPRNWUUGTUKP$GNIKÇ
|RTQEGPVRWPVQPFGTJGVIGOKFFGNFGXCPJGVGWTQIGDKGF GP XGGN NCIGT FCP KP &WKVUNCPF GP 0GFGTNCPF &G
QRGGPXQNIGPFGJGTXQTOKPIGPUKPFUYCCTDĎQPFGT
OGGTFGXQQTYCCTFGPXQQTVQGICPIVQVXGTXTQGIFRGPUKQGPYGTFGPCCPIGUEJGTRVJGDDGPGEJVGTPQIPKGVXQNQR
GHHGEVIGUQTVGGTF1QMJGVUVCVWWVXCPFGPKGVYGTM\QGMGPFGQWFGTGYGTMNQ\GYGTFXGTCPFGTFUKPFU|\ĎP
PKGWYG YGTMNQ\GP VQV FG NGGHVĎF XCP | XGTRNKEJV YGTM
VG\QGMGP
&G 5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG XQQT FG 8GTITĎ\KPI ICCV KP JCCT
TGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQ WKV XCP GGP IGUVCIG UVĎIKPI XCP FG
YGTMIGNGIGPJGKF VWUUGP| GP 6ĎFGPU FG RGTKQFG| | \QW FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF VQGPGOGP OGV | RTQEGPVRWPV XCP VQV XQQT
VQVLCTKIGP6GPGGTUVG\CNFGCEVKXKVGKVUITCCFPCCT
XGTYCEJVKPIOGV|RTQEGPVRWPVUVĎIGP&KVYKN\GIIGP
FCVGGPITQVGTCCPFGGNXCPFGDGXQNMKPIQRCTDGKFUNGGHVĎF
DGUEJKMDCCT\CN\ĎPXQQTFGCTDGKFUOCTMVCNUYGTMGPFGQH
YGTM\QGMGPFG&GUVĎIKPIFQGV\KEJXQQTPCOGNĎMXQQTDĎ
VQVLCTKIGPCNUIGXQNIXCPFGRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI
GP FG ITQGKGPFG FGGNPCOG XCP XTQWYGP QR FG CTDGKFUOCTMV 6GP VYGGFG YQTFV XGTYCEJV FCV JGV CCPFGGN XCP
FGYGTMGPFGPKPFGDGTQGRUDGXQNMKPI\CNVQGPGOGP1R
NCPIG VGTOĎP \QW FG YGTMNQQUJGKFUITCCF KOOGTU FCNGP
XCPOQOGPVGGNVQV
.
&G CTDGKFUOCTMVRCTVKEKRCVKG XCP LQPIGTGP GP NCCIIGUEJQQNFGP KU KP $GNIKÇ VĎFGPU FG CHIGNQRGP XĎHVKGP LCCT
GXGPGGPU CEJVGTWKVIGICCP &G FCNKPI XCP FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFDĎFGLQPIGTGPKUGEJVGTFGGNUVQGVGUEJTĎXGPCCP
GGPITQVGTRGTEGPVCIGUVWFGPVGPGPCCPFGXGTNGPIKPIXCP
FGUVWFKGFWWT$GNIKÇKUJGV'WTQRGUGNCPFOGVFGNCCIUVG
YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCFXQQTPKGV'WTQRGUGUVCCVUDWTIGTU
GPJGVXGTUEJKNKPYGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCFVWUUGPFG\GDGXQNMKPIUITQGRGPFGGKIGPUVCCVUDWTIGTUKUGTXGGNITQVGT
FCP IGOKFFGNF KP 'WTQRC 'NM XCP FKG ITQGRGP XGTFKGPV
FWUDĎ\QPFGTGCCPFCEJVKPJGVDĎ\QPFGTFQQTOKFFGNXCP
QRNGKFKPIGPFGDGUVTĎFKPIXCPFKUETKOKPCVKG8QQTVUKUJGV
XCPDGNCPIGTXQQTVG\QTIGPFCVFGCUKGN\QGMGTUQRFGCTDGKFUOCTMVYQTFGPKPIGUEJCMGNF<ĎDGUEJKMMGPQXGTGGP
CCPVCN VTQGXGP \G \QWFGP OGV PCOG FG XGTITĎ\KPI XCP
FG DGXQNMKPI GPKIU\KPU MWPPGP VGIGPICCP 6GTYĎN XCP FG $GNIKUEJG DGXQNMKPI VWUUGP | GP | LCCT QWF KU
DGJQQTVQPIGXGGTFGJGNHVXCPFGCUKGN\QGMGTUKOOGTUVQV
FKGNGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKG
+PDQXGPUVCCPFGJ[RQVJGUGPKUTGMGPKPIIGJQWFGPOGV
FGVQVOKFFGP|IQGFIGMGWTFGOCCVTGIGNGPKP\CMG
RGPUKQGP GP CTDGKFUOCTMVJGTXQTOKPIGP \QCNU FG CCPRCUUKPI XCP JGV UVGNUGN XCP KPUEJCMGNKPIUWKVMGTKPIGP
FG CCPIGUEJGTRVG XQQTYCCTFGP KP\CMG VQGICPI VQV JGV
UVGNUGNXCPYGTMNQQUJGKFOGVDGFTĎHUVQGUNCI
UVTGPIGTG
GKUGP QR JGV XNCM XCP DGUEJKMDCCTJGKF XQQT FG CTDGKFUOCTMV UVTKMVGTG EQPVTQNGU XQQT VQGICPI VQV VĎFUMTGFKGV
GP NQQRDCCPQPFGTDTGMKPI GP\ *GV YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUDGNGKF OQGV GT QQM KP FG VQGMQOUV QR IGTKEJV \ĎP FG
YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUETGCVKG OCZKOCCN VG QPFGTUVGWPGP
$Ď\QPFGTG CCPFCEJV OQGV JKGTDĎ WKVICCP PCCT JGV TGOGFKÇTGP XCP FG GTI NCIG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF XCP
DGRCCNFGMCPUGPITQGRGPFKGJGVOQGKNĎMJGDDGPQOFG
QRUVCRPCCTFGCTDGKFUOCTMVVGOCMGP
Productiviteit
&GYGTMNQQUJGKFUITCCFYQTFVDGTGMGPFCCPFGJCPFXCPJGVCFOKPKUVTCVKGXG
EQPEGRVGPPKGVJGVGPSWÆVGEQPEGRVFCVOGGUVCNYQTFVIGDTWKMVXQQT
KPVGTPCVKQPCNGXGTIGNĎMKPIGP
&KV\ĎPFGXTQGIGTGDTWIRGPUKQGPGP
TABEL 1
1QMFGVYGGFGEQORQPGPVXCPFGGEQPQOKUEJGITQGKFG
VQGPCOGXCPFGCTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKVKUXCPITQQVDGNCPI
WERKGELEGENHEIDSGRAAD VAN KANSENGROEPEN
(in % van de overeenstemmende bevolking van 20 tot 64 jaar, tenzij anders vermeld ; 2015)
België
p.m. België,
verandering
sinds 2000 (1)
Duitsland
Frankrijk
Nederland
Eurogebied
Totaal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
67,2
+1,8
78,3
69,5
76,6
69,3
20 tot 29-jarigen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
57,1
Ũ
71,8
60,8
75,7
59,1
55 tot 64-jarigen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44,7
67,0
48,8
62,2
53,8
Niet-EU-staatsburgers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44,3
n.
57,1
45,6
50,5
56,0
Laaggeschoolden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
45,8
Ũ
59,3
50,6
60,0
52,7
Bron : EC
(1) In procentpunt.
\
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
GRAFIEK 10
&'61'0#/'8#0&'#4$'+&5241&7%6+8+6'+6+5%47%+##.1/&'8'4)4č<+0)5-156'06'&47--'0
PRODUCTIVITEIT PER WERKENDE
(veranderingspercentages t.o.v. het voorgaande jaar)
VERGRIJZINGSKOSTEN 2015-2060
(in procentpunt bbp)
2,0
2,0
5,0
4,6
4,5
1,5
1,5
4,0
3,0
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
0,0
2,5
4,5
4,0
3,4
3,5
5,0
3,5
3,0
2,3
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
Referentiescenario
Scenario 1,25 %
Scenario 1 %
Referentiescenario
Scenario 1 %
Scenario 1,25%
p.m. gemiddelde 2000-2007
$TQP5%X8
QO GGP GEQPQOKUEJ FTCCIXNCM VG ETGÇTGP XQQT FG ƂPCPEKGTKPIXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP
8QNIGPU JGV TGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQ XCP FG 5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG
XQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPIVTGMVFGRTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGKQRLCCTDCUKUIGUVCCICCPXCPKP|VQVKPGP
DNĎHVJĎFCCTPCEQPUVCPV1XGTFGJGNGRGTKQFGDGFTCCIV
FG IGOKFFGNFG RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGK RGT LCCT YCV
QPIGXGGT QXGTGGPMQOV OGV FG IGOKFFGNFG RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGK KP FG RGTKQFG OCCT TGNCVKGH JQQI
KUKPJGVNKEJVXCPFGTGEGPVGYCCTPGOKPIGP&G#IGKPI
9QTMKPI )TQWR ICCV WKV XCP GGP LCCTQRLCCT ITQGK XCP
QRNCPIGVGTOĎP
6YGG CNVGTPCVKGXG UEGPCTKQoU OGV GGP NCIGTG RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGK QR NCPIG VGTOĎP PCOGNĎM GGP VQGPCOG XCP
TGURGEVKGXGNĎMGPQRLCCTDCUKUYĎ\GPWKVFCV
GGP RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUUVĎIKPI XCP ETWEKCCN DGNCPI KU QO FG
XGTITĎ\KPIMQUVGP VG FTWMMGP &G IGOKFFGNFG ITQGK XCP
FG DGFTĎXKIJGKF QR LCCTDCUKU VWUUGP| GP | \QW
NCIGT NKIIGP KP JGV RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUUEGPCTKQ XCP
GPNCIGTKPJGVUEGPCTKQXCP&GDWFIGVVCKTG MQUVGP XCP FG XGTITĎ\KPI \QWFGP TGURGEVKGXGNĎM
|GP|RTQEGPVRWPVDDRJQIGTWKVXCNNGPVGPQR\KEJVG
XCPJGVTGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQ
*GV KU FCP QQM WKVGTOCVG DGNCPITĎM QO FG ITQGK XCP
FG CTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKV VG QPFGTUVGWPGP YCV XGTGKUV
FCV FG QXGTJGKF XQNFQGPFG KPXGUVGGTV KP KPHTCUVTWEVWWT
QPFGT\QGM GP QPVYKMMGNKPI GP QPFGTYĎU GP FCV \G
&GEGODGT
\
GGP CCPVTGMMGNĎMG QOIGXKPI ETGÇGTV XQQT RTKXÅKPKVKCVKGH
GPQPFGTPGOGTUEJCR
$GRGTMKPIXCPFGWKVICXGPKPXGTDCPF
OGVFGXGTITĎ\KPI
&GFTKGNGFKIGDGNGKFUUVTCVGIKGDGJGNUVVGPUNQVVGFCVFGWKVICXGPUVĎIKPIXQQTRGPUKQGPGPGPIG\QPFJGKFU\QTIQPFGT
EQPVTQNGYQTFVIGJQWFGPQOFGƂPCPEKÇNGJQWFDCCTJGKF
XCPFGUQEKCNGDGUEJGTOKPIQRNCPIGVGTOĎPVGXGT\GMGTGP
2GPUKQGPWKVICXGP
&G HGFGTCNG TGIGTKPI JGGHV DĎ JCCT CCPVTGFGP KP QMVQDGT|OCCVTGIGNGPCCPIGMQPFKIFQOJGVRGPUKQGPUVGNUGN XGTFGT VG JGTXQTOGP &G\G OCCVTGIGNGP \ĎP GT
KP GUUGPVKG QR IGTKEJV FG YGTMPGOGTU NCPIGT CCP JGV
YGTM VG JQWFGP <QFQGPFG \QWFGP FG WKVICXGP XQQT
RGPUKQGPGP NCIGT WKVXCNNGP \QW FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKF
VQGPGOGP GP FG GEQPQOKUEJG DGFTĎXKIJGKF YQTFGP
QPFGTUVGWPF YCCTFQQT FG DWFIGVVCKTG MQUVGP XCP FG
XGTITĎ\KPI\QWFGPCHPGOGP
&G OGGUV QRXCNNGPFG OCCVTGIGNGP DGUVQPFGP GTKP FG
YGVVGNĎMG RGPUKQGPNGGHVĎF VG XGTJQIGP FG XQQTYCCTFGP
XQQT XGTXTQGIFG RGPUKQPGTKPI XGTFGT VG XGTUVTGPIGP GP
FGRGPUKQGPDQPWUCHVGUEJCHHGP&G\GNCCVUVGYCUGGPƂPCPEKÇNGCCPOQGFKIKPIQOYGTMPGOGTUQRJGVGKPFGXCP
JWPNQQRDCCPNCPIGTCCPJGVYGTMVGJQWFGP&CCTPCCUV
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
JGGHVFGTGIGTKPIFGKPVGPVKGWKVIGURTQMGPQOFGRGPUKQGPUVGNUGNU XCP FG RGTUQPGGNUNGFGP XCP FG QXGTJGKF GP
XCP FG RTKXÅUGEVQT OGGT VG JCTOQPKUGTGP 0CCUV FG\G
JGTXQTOKPIGP MQPFKIFG FG TGIGTKPI DĎ JCCT CCPVTGFGP
VGXGPU FG QRTKEJVKPI CCP XCP GGP CFXKUGTGPF 0CVKQPCCN
2GPUKQGPEQOKVÅ&KVEQOKVÅDGTGKFVGGPCCPVCNUVTWEVWTGNG
JGTXQTOKPIGPXQQTGP\KGVU[UVGOCVKUEJVQGQRFGƂPCPEKÇNG GP UQEKCNG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG RGPUKQGPUVGNUGNU
*GVYQTFVQPFGTUVGWPFFQQTJGV-GPPKUEGPVTWOXQQTFG
2GPUKQGPGPGPFQQTGGP#ECFGOKUEJG4CCF&G\GKPUVGNNKPIGPYGTFGPKPFGNGPVGXCP|QRIGTKEJV
+P\CMGFGRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPIYGTFGPTGGFUKP|GGP
CCPVCN DGNCPITĎMG OCCVTGIGNGP IGPQOGP &G YGVVGNĎMG
RGPUKQGPNGGHVĎFYQTFVXGTJQQIFXCP|VQV|LCCTKP
GPVQV|LCCTKP<QFTCFKGNGGHVĎFDGTGKMVYQTFVMCP
OGP OGV RGPUKQGP ICCP \QPFGT NQQRDCCPXQQTYCCTFGP
&CCTPCCUVYGTFGPFGXQQTYCCTFGPQOCCPURTCCMVGMWPPGPOCMGPQRGGPXGTXTQGIFRGPUKQGPXGTFGTXGTUVTGPIF
&GXQTKIGHGFGTCNGTGIGTKPIJCFGKPF|TGGFUDGUNQVGP
FG JKGTVQG XGTGKUVG OKPKOWONGGHVĎF QR VG VTGMMGP XCP
|VQV|LCCTGPFGNQQRDCCPFWWTVGXGTJQIGPXCP|VQV
| LCCT &G JWKFKIG HGFGTCNG TGIGTKPI JGGHV DGUNQVGP FG
OKPKOWONGGHVĎF QR VG VTGMMGP VQV | LCCT KP| GP
|LCCTKP|&GNQQRDCCPXQQTYCCTFGYQTFVXGTFGTXGTJQQIFVQV|LCCTKP|GP|LCCTXCPCH|'TDNĎXGP
GXGPYGN WKV\QPFGTKPIGP DGUVCCP XQQT \GGT NCPIG NQQRDCPGP8QQTVU\CNJGVCCPVCNRGTUQPGPFCVTGEJVJGGHVQRGGP
QXGTNGXKPIURGPUKQGP YQTFGP DGRGTMV FQQT IGNGKFGNĎM FG
JKGTXQQTIGNFGPFGOKPKOWONGGHVĎFQRVGVTGMMGPPCOGNĎM
XCP | LCCT VQV | LCCT KP | GP | LCCT KP 6GP
UNQVVGYGTFJGVU[UVGGOXCPFGRGPUKQGPDQPWUOGVKPICPI
XCP|LCPWCTK|CHIGUEJCHV&KVDGVGMGPVFCVGTXCPCHFKG
FCVWOIGGPDQPWUTGEJVGPOGGTQPVUVCCPVGP\ĎCNTGEJVGP
YGTFGPQRIGDQWYFXÏÏTFGCCPMQPFKIKPIFCVJGVU[UVGGO
YQTFVQRIGJGXGP&G\GJGTXQTOKPIGPJGDDGPDGVTGMMKPI
QRFGFTKGDGNCPITĎMUVGRGPUKQGPUVGNUGNUPCOGNĎMFCVXCP
FGQXGTJGKFUUGEVQTFCVXCPFGYGTMPGOGTUGPFCVXCPFG
\GNHUVCPFKIGP
&CCTPCCUV YGTFGP GT GGP CCPVCN CCPRCUUKPIGP CCP FG
RGPUKQGPGP XCP FG QXGTJGKFUUGEVQT IQGFIGMGWTF 'GP
DGNCPITĎMGXGTCPFGTKPIKPFKVUVGNUGNKUFCVFG\QIGJGVGP
FKRNQOCDQPKƂECVKG YCCTDĎ FG UVWFKGLCTGP YQTFGP OGGIGVGNF QO FG NQQRDCCPFWWT VG DGTGMGPGP VWUUGP| GP|IGNGKFGNĎM\CNWKVFQXGP
6GXGPU YGTFGP KP PCXQNIKPI XCP FG OCCVTGIGNGP XCP FG
XQTKIGTGIGTKPIFGXQQTYCCTFGPXQQTYGTMNQQUJGKFUWKVMGTKPIGPOGVDGFTĎHUVQGUNCIFGXTQGIGTGDTWIRGPUKQGPGP
XGTUVTGPIF &CCTDĎ YGTFGP VYGG DGNCPITĎMG YĎ\KIKPIGP
CCPIGDTCEJV6GPGGTUVGYGTFFGXQQTFCVUVGNUGNIGNFGPFG
OKPKOWONGGHVĎF XGTJQQIF GP VGP VYGGFG OQGVGP FKG
YGTMNQ\GP XQQTVCCP KPIGUEJTGXGP \ĎP CNU YGTM\QGMGPFG
\
GPDGUEJKMDCCT\ĎPXQQTFGCTDGKFUOCTMV0KGVVGOKPIGNFGPGTWKV\QPFGTKPIGPQPFGTOGGTXQQT\YCTGDGTQGRGP
DĎNCPIGNQQRDCPGPGPDĎGTPUVKIGOGFKUEJGRTQDNGOGP
8QQT JGV CCPXWNNGPF DGFTĎHURGPUKQGP JGGHV FG HGFGTCNG
TGIGTKPI DGUNKUV FCV JGV KP FG VQGMQOUV QPOQIGNĎM \CN
\ĎPQOFKVQRVGPGOGPXQQTFCVFGDGVTQMMGPGGHHGEVKGH
OGV
XGTXTQGIFRGPUKQGPICCV$QXGPFKGPOQIGPPKGWYG
RGPUKQGPRNCPPGPXCPCH|LCPWCTK|PKGVOGGTCƃQRGP
XÏÏTFGNGGHVĎFXCP|LCCT
+PJCCTXGTUNCIXCP|DGUVWFGGTFGFG5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG
XQQT FG 8GTITĎ\KPI JGV GHHGEV XCP FG DGNCPITĎMUVG
OCCVTGIGNGP XCP FG TGEGPVG RGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI QR FG
CTDGKFUOCTMV FG GEQPQOKUEJG DGFTĎXKIJGKF GP FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP *KGTDĎ YGTF JGV VQGP IGJCPVGGTFG TGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQ XGTIGNGMGP OGV GGP UEGPCTKQ YCCTKP FG\G
OCCVTGIGNGPPKGVKPCCPOGTMKPIIGPQOGPYGTFGP
&G TGUWNVCVGP YĎ\GP WKV FCV FG JGTXQTOKPIGP JGV CCPVCN TGEJVJGDDGPFGP QR GGP TWUVRGPUKQGP GP JGV CCPVCN
PKGVYGTM\QGMGPFGYGTMNQ\GPOGVDGFTĎHUVQGUNCIUCOGP
QRNCPIGVGTOĎP
VGIGPOGV|FQGPVGTWINQRGP *KGTVGIGPQXGT UVCCV GGP XGTIGNĎMDCTG VQGPCOG
XCP FG PKGVIGRGPUKQPGGTFG DGXQNMKPI PCOGNĎM XCP FG
DGTQGRUDGXQNMKPI GP FG PKGVCEVKGXGP &G UVĎIKPI XCP
FG DGTQGRUDGXQNMKPI XGTVCCNV \KEJ KP GGP CCPYCU XCP FG
YGTMIGNGIGPJGKF OGV &G VQVCNG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF \QW FQQT FG JGTXQTOKPIGP KOOGTU | RTQEGPVRWPVJQIGTNKIIGPGPFKGXCPFGNGGHVĎFUECVGIQTKGXCP
|VQVGPOGV|LCCT\GNHU|RTQEGPVRWPV*GVDDR\QW
GXGPGGPU OGV VQGPGOGP CCPIG\KGP YQTFV WKVIGICCPXCPGGPQPXGTCPFGTFGRTQFWEVKXKVGKVUITQGK
&GJGTXQTOKPIGP\QWFGPCCPNGKFKPIIGXGPVQVGGPFCNKPI
XCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPOGV|RTQEGPVRWPVDDRYCCTXCP | RTQEGPVRWPV MCP YQTFGP VQGIGUEJTGXGP CCP NCIGTGRGPUKQGPWKVICXGPGP|RTQEGPVRWPVCCPFGCPFGTG
UQEKCNGWKVMGTKPIGP&GFCNKPIXCPFGUQEKCNGWKVMGTKPIGPKU
JGVTGUWNVCCVXCPFTKGHCEVQTGPFGCHPCOGXCPJGVCCPVCN
IGRGPUKQPGGTFGP GP PKGVYGTM\QGMGPFG YGTMNQ\GP OGV
DGFTĎHUVQGUNCI FG CHUEJCHƂPI XCP FG RGPUKQGPDQPWU GP
FGQRYCCTVUGJGT\KGPKPIXCPFGGEQPQOKUEJGITQGK
1PFCPMU FKV IWPUVKIG GHHGEV XCP FG RGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI
QR FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP \WNNGP FG UQEKCNG WKVMGTKPIGP KP
FGVQGMQOUVPQIHQTUUVĎIGPPCOGNĎMOGV|RTQEGPVRWPVDDRKPFGRGTKQFG|\QCNUYGTFVQGIGNKEJV
KPFGGN|
+P FG NQQR XCP| JGGHV FG TGIGTKPI GGP CCPVCN UVCRRGP IGPQOGP VQV XGTFGTG CCPRCUUKPI XCP FG RGPUKQGPUVGNUGNU *GV DGVTGHV QPFGT CPFGTG FG JCTOQPKUGTKPI XCP
FG FKRNQOCDQPKƂECVKG XQQT FG RGPUKQGPDGTGMGPKPI KP
FGFTKGRGPUKQGPUVGNUGNUFGIGNGKFGNĎMGCHUEJCHƂPIXCPFG
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
GRAFIEK 11
VERLOOP VAN DE SOCIALE UITKERINGEN VÓÓR
EN NA DE RECENTE PENSIOENHERVORMING
KPDDR
33
33
31
31
29
29
27
+2,9
27
+2,3
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
23
2020
23
2015
25
2012
25
SCvV-verslag 2016
SCvV-verslag 2014
$TQP5%X8
RTGHGTGPVKÇNG VCPVKÄOGU GP FG XGTJQIKPIUEQÇHƂEKÇPVGP KP
FG QXGTJGKFURGPUKQGPGP JGV KPXQGTGP XCP GGP IGOGPIF
RGPUKQGP KP FG QXGTJGKFUUGEVQT EQPVTCEVWGGNCODVGPCCT
FG CHUEJCHƂPI XCP GGP CCPVCN DĎ\QPFGTG RGPUKQGPUVGNUGNU
GPFGJGTXQTOKPIXCPJGV\KGMVGRGPUKQGPDĎCODVGPCTGP
&G VQGRCUUKPIUXQQTYCCTFGP XCP FG\G XQQTUVGNNGP YGTFGP
GEJVGTPQIPKGVWKVIGYGTMVGPYQTFGPPQIDGURTQMGPOGV
FGXGTUEJKNNGPFGDGVTQMMGPRCTVĎGP
&GMQOGPFGLCTGPXCNNGPPQIOGGTKPITĎRGPFGJGTXQTOKPIGP VG XGTYCEJVGP KP FG XGTUEJKNNGPFG RGPUKQGPUVGNUGNU
*GV 0CVKQPCCN 2GPUKQGPEQOKVÅ YGTF GTOGG DGNCUV GGP
CCPVCN JGTXQTOKPIGP XQQT VG DGTGKFGP *GV OQGV PCICCP
QR YGNMG OCPKGT FG \YCCTVG XCP JGV YGTM KP CCPOGTMKPI MCP YQTFGP IGPQOGP XQQT FG RGPUKQGPTGEJVGP FG
OQIGNĎMJGKF DGUVWFGTGP QO GGP FGGNVĎFU RGPUKQGP QR
VG PGOGP GP FG KPXQGTKPI XCP GGP RWPVGPU[UVGGO XQQT
JGVRGPUKQGPQPFGT\QGMGP9CVFKVNCCVUVGCURGEVDGVTGHV
JGGHVFGHGFGTCNGTGIGTKPIFGKPVGPVKGIGWKVQOVGIGPJGV
GKPFGXCPFGTGIGGTRGTKQFGGGPCMMQQTFVGDGTGKMGPQXGT
GGP FGTIGNĎM U[UVGGO \QFCV FKV WKVGTNĎM VGIGP | MCP
YQTFGP KPIGXQGTF #PFGTG CCPIGMQPFKIFG JGTXQTOKPIGP
JGDDGPQPFGTOGGTDGVTGMMKPIQRFGJGTXQTOKPIXCPFG
RGPUKQGPKPUVGNNKPIGPGPFGXGTUVGTMKPIXCPFGDCPFVWUUGP
FG CTDGKFURTGUVCVKGU GP JGV RGPUKQGPDGFTCI &CCTPCCUV
YGTFGPGTOCCVTGIGNGPCCPIGMQPFKIFKPJGVMCFGTXCPFG
XGTUVGTMKPIXCPFGVYGGFGRGPUKQGPRĎNGT
#NU IGXQNI XCP FG NCPIGTG NQQRDCPGP FKG XQNIGP WKV
FG RGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI \CN JGV IGOKFFGNFG RGPUKQGPDGFTCI JQIGT \ĎP FCP KP GGP UEGPCTKQ \QPFGT
JGTXQTOKPI *KGTFQQT GP QQM FQQT FG VQGPGOGPFG
&GEGODGT
\
CTDGKFUOCTMVRCTVKEKRCVKG XCP XTQWYGP \CN JGV CTOQGFGTKUKEQDĎIGRGPUKQPGGTFGPXGTMNGKPGP$QXGPFKGP\QWFG
QPIGNĎMJGKFVWUUGPIGRGPUKQPGGTFGPCHPGOGP&GTGGFU
KPIGXQGTFG OCCVTGIGNGP XCP FG RGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPI
\QWFGPFWUFGDGITQVKPIUMQUVGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIFQGP
CHPGOGP OCCT QQM FG UQEKCNG JQWFDCCTJGKF XCP FG
RGPUKQGPGPXGTDGVGTGP
7KVICXGPXQQTIG\QPFJGKFU\QTI
&G IG\QPFJGKFUWKVICXGP XCP FG QXGTJGKF \WNNGP FG MQOGPFG FGEGPPKC DGËPXNQGF YQTFGP FQQT PKGWYG PQFGP
CNUIGXQNIXCPFGVQGPCOGXCPJGVCCPVCNQWFGTGPFKGFG
XTCCI PCCT IG\QPFJGKFU\QTI \CN FQGP UVĎIGP &CCTPCCUV
\WNNGPURGEKCNGXQQT\KGPKPIGPPQFKI\ĎPXQQTFGFKCIPQUG
GP DGJCPFGNKPI XCP DGRCCNFG OGV FG\G NGGHVĎFUITQGR
XGTDQPFGP CCPFQGPKPIGP GP \KGMVGU &G XGTITĎ\KPI KU
GXGPYGNUNGEJVUÅÅPHCEVQTKPFGVQGPCOGXCPFGIG\QPFJGKFUWKVICXGP &G\G WKVICXGP YQTFGP KOOGTU GXGPGGPU
QRIGFTGXGP FQQT FG ITQGKGPFG YGNXCCTV GP FG UVĎIGPFG
MQUVGP XCP FG DGJCPFGNKPIGP FKG QPFGT OGGT MWPPGP
YQTFGP VQGIGUEJTGXGP CCP FG UPGNNG VGEJPQNQIKUEJG
vooruitgang.
&GQXGTJGKFUWKVICXGPXQQTIG\QPFJGKFU\QTI\ĎPQRIGNQRGPXCPDDRKP|VQVKP|8QNIGPUFG
XQQTWKV\KEJVGPXCPFG5VWFKGEQOOKUUKGXQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPI
\QWFGP FG\G WKVICXGP XGTFGT UVĎIGP VQV DDR
KP YCV OCCMV FCV FG\G WKVICXGPECVGIQTKG XQQT
|RTQEGPVRWPV\QWDĎFTCIGPCCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP
&G IGOKFFGNFG LCCTNĎMUG TGÇNG VQGPCOG XCP FG WKVICXGP
XQQT IG\QPFJGKFU\QTI \QW IGNGKFGNĎM XGTUPGNNGP XCP
QPIGXGGTKP|VQVQPIGXGGTKP+P
FG FCCTQRXQNIGPFG LCTGP \QW FKV ITQGKVGORQ IGNGKFGNĎM
XGTFGT QOJQQIICCP VQV KP | GP +P FKG
RGTKQFG PGGOV JGV CCPVCN VQV LCTKIGP HQTU VQG GP
DGTGKMV JGV CCPFGGN XCP FG VQV LCTKIGP KP FG DGXQNMKPI GGP RKGM 0CFKGP \QW FG ITQGKXQGV CHPGOGP VQV
QPIGXGGTCCPJGVGKPFGXCPFGRTQLGEVKGRGTKQFG
*GV IGOKFFGNFG TGÇNG ITQGKVGORQ XCP FG WKVICXGP XQQT
IG\QPFJGKFU\QTIKPFGRGTKQFG||\QWWKVMQOGP
QR VGTYĎN FG XQQT FG\G RGTKQFG XGTYCEJVG CEVKXKVGKVUITQGKIGOKFFGNFDGFTCCIV+PFKGPFGWKVICXGP
XQQT IG\QPFJGKFU\QTI GEJVGT UPGNNGT \QWFGP VQGPGOGP
FCP XGTYCEJV FTGKIGP FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGP CCP\KGPNĎM
QRVGNQRGP&KVMCPFWKFGNĎMYQTFGPCCPIGVQQPFCCPFG
JCPFXCPVYGGUKOWNCVKGQGHGPKPIGP+PFG\GQGHGPKPIGP
YQTFV XGTQPFGTUVGNF FCV FG WKVICXGPITQGK QR LCCTDCUKU
TGURGEVKGXGNĎM|GP|RTQEGPVRWPVJQIGT\QWWKVXCNNGP
&G IGOKFFGNFG TGÇNG WKVICXGPITQGK VĎFGPU FG RTQLGEVKGRGTKQFG \QW JKGTOGG WKVMQOGP QR TGURGEVKGXGNĎM | GP
+P FG GGTUVG QGHGPKPI \QWFGP FG WKVICXGP XQQT
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
GRAFIEK 12
18'4*'+&57+6)#8'08114)'<10&*'+&5<14)
UITGAVEN VOOR GEZONDHEIDSZORG: ALTERNATIEVE
SCENARIO’S
(in % bbp)
REËLE GROEI VAN DE UITGAVEN VOOR
GEZONDHEIDSZORG VOLGENS DE SCvV-PROJECTIE
(in %)
3,5
3,0
3,5
16
16
3,0
15
15
14
14
2,5
2,5
gemiddelde 2016-2060 : 2,0 %
2,0
1,5
13
2,0
12
1,5
11
1,0
1,0
+7,0 %
13
12
11
+4,1 %
10
10
9
9
+1,9 %
8
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
7
2015
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
7
2035
0,0
2030
0,0
2025
8
2020
0,5
2015
0,5
SCvV-projectie
0,5% extra reële groei
1% extra reële groei
$TQPPGP5%X80$$
IG\QPFJGKFU\QTIPCCTTCVCXCP|RTQEGPVRWPVDDRDĎFTCIGPCCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPVGTYĎNFKVKPFGVYGGFG
QGHGPKPI OCCT NKGHUV | RTQEGPVRWPV DDR \QW \ĎP &G\G
UKOWNCVKG VQQPV FWKFGNĎM CCP FCV JGV PQQF\CMGNĎM KU QO
JGVXGTNQQRXCPFGWKVICXGPXQQTIG\QPFJGKFU\QTIUVTKMV
onder controle te houden.
%QPENWUKG
0GVCNUKPFGOGGUVGCPFGTG'WTQRGUGNCPFGPMQOGPFG
IGXQNIGPXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIXCPFGDGXQNMKPIFGXQNIGPFG
FGEGPPKC VQV WKVKPI KP FG $GNIKUEJG QXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇP
<Q \QWFGP FG UQEKCNG WKVMGTKPIGP XCP FG QXGTJGKF KP
$GNIKÇ VWUUGP| GP | OGV | RTQEGPVRWPV DDR
VQGPGOGP
&GTGEGPVGRGPUKQGPJGTXQTOKPIJGGHVFGXGTYCEJVGVQGPCOGXCPFGRGPUKQGPWKVICXGPIGFTWMVOCCTXCPWKVGGP
'WTQRGGU RGTURGEVKGH DGUEJQWYF DNĎXGP FG XGTITĎ\KPIUMQUVGPJQQI$QXGPFKGPDGUVCCVJGVTKUKEQFCVFG\GMQUVGP
QPFGTUEJCV YQTFGP KPFKGP FG CTDGKFURTQFWEVKXKVGKV DĎXQQTDGGNFOKPFGTUVGTM\QWVQGPGOGPFCPKPFGJ[RQVJGUGYCCTQRJGVTGHGTGPVKGUEGPCTKQXCPFG5VWFKGEQOOKUUKG
XQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPIKUIGUVQGNF
&G XGTITĎ\KPI XCP FG DGXQNMKPI DNĎHV FCP QQM GGP
ETWEKCNG DGNGKFUWKVFCIKPI XQQT $GNIKÇ &CCTQO KU JGV
\
PQQF\CMGNĎM FCV GT XQQTVIGYGTMV YQTFV CCP GGP EQJGTGPVG UVTCVGIKG DGUVCCPFG WKV GGP FTKGURQTGPDGNGKF FCV
\QYGN IGTKEJVG DWFIGVVCKTG GEQPQOKUEJG CNU UQEKCNG
DGNGKFUCURGEVGPQOXCV
6GPGGTUVGFKGPVJGVDWFIGVVCKTDGNGKFVGXQQT\KGPKPGGP
EQPUQNKFCVKGRTQITCOOC OGV JGV QQI QR JGV DGTGKMGP
XCPGGPUVTWEVWTGGNDGITQVKPIUGXGPYKEJVQROKFFGNNCPIG
VGTOĎP *GV OQGV XQQTCN DGUVCCP WKV GGP UGNGEVKGXG XGTOKPFGTKPIXCPFGWKVICXGP8GTFGTOQGVIGĎXGTFYQTFGP
XQQT GGP EQTTGEVG DGNCUVKPIKPPKPI GP MWPPGP OCTIGU KP
UQOOKIGQPVXCPIUVGPYQTFGPDGPWV
8QQTVUFKGPVJGVGEQPQOKUEJDGNGKFIGTKEJVVG\ĎPQRJGV
UVKOWNGTGP XCP FG ITQGK FQQT FG XGTJQIKPI XCP JGV RQVGPVKÇNGDDR*KGTVQGOQGVXQNQRYQTFGPKPIG\GVQRJGV
QRFTĎXGP XCP FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUITCCF XKC GGP CEVKGH
YGTMIGNGIGPJGKFUDGNGKFKPJGVDĎ\QPFGTXQQTGGPCCPVCN
MCPUGPITQGRGP8GTFGTKUGTQQMPQQFCCPGGPVQGPCOG
XCPFGRTQFWEVKXKVGKVQPFGTOGGTXKCJGVUVKOWNGTGPXCP
KPXGUVGTKPIGPQPFGT\QGMGPQPVYKMMGNKPIGPGGPGHƂEKÇPVGTGOCTMVYGTMKPI
6GPUNQVVGFKGPVFGWKVICXGPUVĎIKPIXCPFGRGPUKQGPGPGP
FGIG\QPFJGKFU\QTIQPFGTEQPVTQNGIGJQWFGPVGYQTFGP
&KVKUDGNCPITĎMQOFGJQWFDCCTJGKFXCPFGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPGPFGNGGHDCCTJGKFXCPFGUQEKCNGDGUEJGTOKPIQR
NCPIGVGTOĎPVGXGT\GMGTGP
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV
$KDNKQITCƂG
$CNCUUQPG(,%WPJC).CPIGPWU$/CP\MG,2CXQV&2TCOOGTCPF26QOOCUKPQ
(KUECNUWUVCKPCDKNKV[
CPFRQNKE[KORNKECVKQPUHQTVJGGWTQCTGC0$$9QTMKPI2CRGT
$KUEKCTK2&&WT[$'WIÄPGGP.8CP/GGPUGN
n&GJGTXQTOKPIGPXCPFGRGPUKQGPUVGNUGNUKPFGNCPFGPXCP
FG'7o0$$Economisch 6ĎFUEJTKHVFGEGODGT
$WTIITCGXG-GP%2KVQP
n&GGEQPQOKUEJGIGXQNIGPXCPFGKPUVTQQOXCPXNWEJVGNKPIGPKP$GNIKÇo0$$
Economisch 6ĎFUEJTKHVLWPK
%NGOGPVU$-&[DE\CM8)CURCT5)WRVCCPF/5QVQ
6JG(KUECN%QPUGSWGPEGUQH5JTKPMKPI2QRWNCVKQPU
+/(5VCHH&KUEWUUKQP0QVG
&WT[&GP.8CP/GGPUGN
n&GJQWFDCCTJGKFXCPFGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPKPJGVNKEJVXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIo0$$
Economisch 6ĎFUEJTKHVUGRVGODGT
'%$
n#PCN[UKPIIQXGTPOGPVFGDVUWUVCKPCDKNKV[KPVJGGWTQCTGCo/QPVJN[$WNNGVKP#RTKN
'%
(KUECN5WUVCKPCDKNKV[4GRQTV 'WTQRGCP'EQPQO[
'%
6JG|#IGKPI4GRQTV7PFGTN[KPI#UUWORVKQPUCPF2TQLGEVKQP/GVJQFQNQIKGU'WTQRGCP'EQPQO[
'%
#UUGUUKPI2WDNKE&GDV5WUVCKPCDKNKV[KP'7/GODGT5VCVGU#)WKFG1EECUKQPCN2CRGTU5GRVGODGT
'%
6JG|CIGKPITGRQTV'EQPQOKECPFDWFIGVCT[RTQLGEVKQPUHQTVJG|'7OGODGTUVCVGU
'WTQRGCP'EQPQO[/C[
'%
|2GPUKQP4GHQTOKP$GNIKWO.
'%
(KUECN5WUVCKPCDKNKV[4GRQTV+PUVKVWVKQPCN2CRGTU,CPWCT[
'%
,QKPV4GRQTVQP*GCNVJ%CTGCPF.QPI6GTO%CTG5[UVGOU(KUECN5WUVCKPCDKNKV[+PUVKVWVKQPCN2CRGT1EVQDGT
'UEQNCPQ,
#RTCEVKECNIWKFGVQRWDNKEFGDVF[PCOKEUƂUECNUWUVCKPCDKNKV[CPFE[ENKECNCFLWUVOGPVQHDWFIGVCT[
CIITGICVGU6GEJPKECNPQVGUCPFOCPWCNU+/((KUECN#HHCKTU&GRCTVOGPV
(CUSWGNNG059GGOCGUGP29KNNGOÅ
n&GIG\QPFJGKFU\QTIWKVICXGPFGVGTOKPCPVGPGPRTQLGEVKGUo
&QEWOGPVCVKGDNCFXCPFG(GFGTCNG1XGTJGKFUFKGPUVƂPCPEKÇPe kwartaal.
(GFGTCCN2NCPDWTGCW(1&'EQPQOKGs#NIGOGPG&KTGEVKG5VCVKUVKGM
&GOQITCƂUEJGXQQTWKV\KEJVGP||s
$GXQNMKPIJWKUJQWFGPUGPRTQURGEVKGXGUVGTHVGSWQVKÇPVGPOCCTV
*QIG4CCFXCP(KPCPEKÇP#FXKG\GP.
.CPIGPWU)
(KUECNUWUVCKPCDKNKV[KPFKECVQTUCPFRQNKE[FGUKIPKPVJGHCEGQHCIGKPI0$$9QTMKPI2CRGT
October.
/GN[P9.8CP/GGPUGNGP58CP2CT[U
n'WTQRGGUIQXGTPCPEGMCFGTKP\CMGQXGTJGKFUƂPCPEKÇPVQGNKEJVKPI
GPGXCNWCVKGo0$$Economisch 6ĎFUEJTKHVUGRVGODGT
1'%&
#IGKPIFGDCVGVJGKUUWGU1'%&+PUKIJVU
4GKPJCTF0CPF,'5VWTO
5WUVCKPCDKNKV[QHRWDNKEFGDV%'5KHQUGOKPCTUGTKGU6JG/+62TGUU
&GEGODGT
\
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
111
5VWFKGEQOOKUUKGXQQTFG8GTITĎ\KPI8GTUNCI|GPXQTKIGLCTGP.
7PKVGF0CVKQPU
9QTNF2QRWNCVKQP2TQURGEVU-G[ƂPFKPIUCPFCFXCPEGVCDNGU.
7PKVGF0CVKQPU
9QTNF2QRWNCVKQP#IGKPI4GRQTV
8CP'YĎM%0&TCRGT*VGT4GNGCPF'9GUVGTJQWVKPEQQRGTCVKQPYKVJ,&QPFGTU
#IGKPICPFVJG
5WUVCKPCDKNKV[QH&WVEJ2WDNKE(KPCPEGU%2$0GVJGTNCPFU$WTGCWHQT'EQPQOKE2QNKE[#PCN[UKU
9KNNGOÅ2
5VTWEVWTGNGFGVGTOKPCPVGPXCPFGRWDNKGMGIG\QPFJGKFU\QTIWKVICXGP9QTMKPI2CRGTUGRVGODGT
112
\
&'*17&$##4*'+&8#0&'18'4*'+&5(+0#0%+§0+0*'6.+%*68#0&'|8'4)4+,<+0)
\
0$$'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHV