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RESEARCH
At a Glance
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY
Q3 2014
German logistics indicator
Climate
Situation
Expectations
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: IfW, BVL
Take-up of light industrial and logistics space in Germany
Q1-3
in m²
Q4
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Key figures of logistics market Germany
Q1-3 2013
Take-up
Q1-3 2014
3,751,000 m² 3,833,000 m²
TAKE-UP AT PRIOR-YEAR LEVEL
Nationwide take-up in the logistics and warehouse premises
market in the first three quarters of 2014 totalled just over
3.83 million m². That was just a marginal 2 % or so increase on
the prior-year figure but all of more than 10 % above the longterm average. This is the fifth time in succession that the result
at this stage has been well over the 3 million m² mark, which
impressively underlines this sector's sustained positive development. In spite of the second-quarter decline in GDP and the
already significantly amended forecasts for the year as a whole,
the July to September period produced another very good performance, with take-up in this quarter amounting to over
1.25 million m².
2014
Trend
remaining
year

- Thereof owner-occupier
51.6 %
47.3 %

- Thereof new building
53.2 %
62.9 %

© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
2008
GROWING UNCERTAINTY IMPACTS ON L0GISTICS SECTOR TOO
The increasing sense of disquiet regarding economic developments in Germany and the rest of Europe is now also making
itself felt in the logistics sector. In line with other important
measures of business sentiment, like the Ifo Index or the ZEW
Index, which have worsened appreciably in the past few months,
the logistics indicator computed by the Institute for the World
Economy (IfW) slipped in the third quarter of 2014 by around
14 points to 124.9. The fall was particularly marked in respect of
expectations, where the index fell by 20 points to 122.5. But
businesses also assessed their current situation less positively
than before, something which must be seen a warning signal. In
combination with the sluggish economy, such international crises
as the Ukraine conflict or the turmoil and fighting in the Middle
East create risks which could impact on the development of the
logistics industry, especially in the coming year.
HIGH RATIO OF NEW-BUILD AND OWNER-OCCUPIER SPACE
The third quarter brought a continuation of a now long-apparent
trend: new-build premises are becoming the most important
market segment. Altogether in Germany, they have so far been
responsible for nearly 63 % of aggregate take-up. One key reason
for this is the still very limited availability of ready-to-rent modern space and especially of sizeable modern logistics complexes.
In view of this, more and more users are opting to have the
facilities they need constructed for them instead of accepting
existing but suboptimal alternatives. This development is also
reflected by the owner-occupier proportion of total take-up,
which currently stands at just over 47 %.
AT A GLANCE - LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY - Q3 2014
Take-up according to sectors Q1-3 2014
in %
3.7
22.2
Logistics firms
Wholesale/retail
Manufacturing
Construction/crafts
Supply/disposal
Others
41.6
31.8
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
0.1
0.6
Take-up of light industrial and logistics space
Q1-3 2013
(m²)
Q1-3 2014
(m²)
Change
(%)
240,000
246,000
2.5%
97,000
215,000
121.6%
Düsseldorf
260,000
211,000
-18.8%
Frankfurt
405,000
340,000
-16.0%
Hamburg
300,000
305,000
1.7%
Leipzig
176,000
138,000
-21.6%
Munich
170,000
184,000
8.2%
1,648,000
1,639,000
-0.5%
14,000
22,000
57.1%
Bremen
241,000
31,000
-87.1%
Hannover/Braunschweig
124,000
131,500
6.0%
Mannheim
61,000
157,000
157.4%
Münster/Osnabrück
53,000
260,500
391.5%
Nuremberg
61,000
48,000
-21.3%
Ruhr region
168,000
210,000
25.0%
61,000
195,000
219.7%
1,320,000
1,139,000
-13.7%
Total selected logistics regions
2,103,000
2,194,000
4.3%
Total Germany
3,751,000
3,833,000
2.2%
BUSINESS-SECTOR SPREAD RELATIVELY STABLE
The way demand is distributed between the various business
sectors has been relatively stable for almost two years now.
Activity is dominated by three different branches of the economy.
Basically, this is a very positive phenomenon, since up to now
there have been no signs that any of these mainstays of demand
has been affected disproportionately by the present economic
troubles. The turnover table is again headed by logistics firms;
these have stepped up their prior-year take-up share of just over
34 % to just under 42 % this year. Structural developments in this
sector, especially in the field of third-party logistics, help to
ensure a comparatively solid basis of demand. In second place
come wholesalers/retailers with a share of close to 32 %, thus
re-affirming their long-apparent growing significance in respect
of demand for logistics space. Anticipated innovations, such as in
the field of online trading, should help to maintain this trend in
the medium term, too. Third place in the ranking is taken by
manufacturing companies; these have contributed to take-up
quite substantially, especially in the third quarter, and have so
far accounted for slightly more than 22 % of the result. As in
recent years, all the other demand groups have played only a
fairly subordinate role.
Important logistics markets
Berlin
Cologne
Subtotal
Augsburg
Stuttgart
Rest of Germany
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
Selected logistics regions*
SLIGHT INCREASE OUTSIDE MAJOR CENTRES
In the first three quarters, take-up of logistics space outside the
major metropolises amounted to just over 2.19 million m². That
corresponds to a year-on-year rise of over 4 % and is also a highly satisfactory result from the long-term angle. Of the total, just
over 1.2 million m² is accounted for by the 14 logistics regions
which BNPPRE regularly analyses in addition to the chief German
cities. Several of these regions have registered turnover growth,
in some cases on a substantial scale. In Münster/Osnabrück, for
instance, take-up comes to more than 260,000 m², fuelled by the
construction of a new logistics facility of over 70,000 m² for Gerry
Weber and a 100,000 m² goods distribution centre being built for
Hermes by ECE Project Management. Turnover in the Mannheim
area has also risen sharply, to 157,000 m², due among other
things to a new Daimler logistics centre for parts from automotive suppliers (close to 80,000 m²). In the Stuttgart region, takeup has more than doubled, to total 195,000 m². Contrasting with
these positive developments, though, there have also been cases
of declining figures. The foremost example is the Bremen logistics
region: after producing an exceptionally good result in the prioryear period, it has seen turnover fall by 87 % to just 31,000 m².
Take-up also declined in the Nuremberg region, but not to such
an extent, slipping by 21 % to 48,000 m². The Ruhr region, on the
other hand, registered turnover growth of 25 % to 210,000 m².
The biggest deal there involved the construction by Goodman of a
40,000 m² or so logistics park to be leased to DB Schenker.
*Deals ≥5,000 m²
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AT A GLANCE - LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY - Q3 2014
Top rents in important logistics markets Q1-3 2014
in €/m²
Berlin
Cologne
5.00
Düsseldorf
5.30
Frankfurt
6.20
Hamburg
5.70
Leipzig
4.35
Munich
6.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
4.70
7.00
Rental ranges in selected logistics regions Q1-3 2014
in €/m²
MAJOR MARKETS MAINTAIN STABLE LEVEL
The seven key logistics markets (Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf,
Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig and Munich) posted aggregate takeup on a par with the prior-year level. The combined result of
slightly under 1.64 million m² is more than 5 % above the longterm average. But, just as in other years recently, there were
differences in the way the various cities evolved. The Frankfurt
market area once again posted the biggest take-up, with
340,000 m², but this actually represented a slight fall, of 16 %. A
significant proportion of the total there was due to the construction of the Fiege Group's new 90,000 m² multi-user logistics
centre in Dieburg. Just behind in the inter-city ranking comes
Hamburg with 305,000 m² (+2 %). Then, somewhat further behind
in third place, comes Greater Berlin with 246,000 m² (+2.5 %).
Other cities with a turnover above 200,000 m² were Düsseldorf,
with 211,000 m² (+19 %), and Cologne, with 215,000 m², which
also posted the strongest growth (+122 %), due largely to a deal
by Hammer (102,000 m²). The Munich logistics market also
registered an increase, of just over 8 % to 184,000 m². The biggest
year-on-year fall was that seen in Leipzig, where turnover slipped
by 22 % to the nevertheless respectable total of 138,000 m².
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
Augsburg
Bremen
Hannover/Braunschweig
Mannheim
Münster/Osnabrück
Nuremberg
Ruhr region
Stuttgart
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
Quarter Company
Location
Area
(m²)
Q2
Hammer
Bedburg
102,000
Q2
Hermes
Löhne
100,000
Q1
FIEGE
Dieburg
90,000
Q2
Daimler AG
Speyer
79,000
Q2
JYSK
Kammlach
60,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate Industrial Services, September 30, 2014
Major contracts Q1-3 2014
RISE IN SOME PRIME RENTS
Compared with the same period last year, prime rents in some
locations have risen somewhat. The biggest increases, of around
4 % in each case, were posted in Düsseldorf (5.30 €/m²) and
Cologne (5.00 €/m²). Rises were also registered in Hamburg
(5.70 €/m²) and Leipzig (4.35 €/m²), with the increase amounting
to about 2 % in each case. On the other hand, the prime rent in
each of Germany's two most expensive locations – Munich
(6.50 €/m²) and Frankfurt (6.20 €/m²) – remained stable. The
same applies to the Ruhr region, where the top rent still stands
at 4.30 €/m². Rental price levels mainly stayed steady in the other
logistics regions, too, but there were modest climbs in the top
rents in some South German locations like Stuttgart and Ulm. As
before, the lowest rents are those posted in Eastern German regions, something due above all to the favourable land prices
there.
OUTLOOK
In spite of the duller economic climate, but taking into account
the fact that a whole series of deals are currently close to finalisation, all the signs suggest that take-up nationwide in the year
as a whole can reach a level of between 4.5 and 5.0 million m².
This would once again be well above the long-term average.
Medium-term prospects for the coming year will be determined
mainly by whether the economy is now just going through a dip
or whether it will be affected adversely if any of the global crises
intensify. Prime rents look likely to develop in a stable fashion for
the time being.
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AT A GLANCE - LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY - Q3 2014
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Imprint Publisher and Copyright: BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH | Prepared by: BNP Paribas Real Estate Consult GmbH | Status: 30.09.2014
Further Information BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH | Hans-Jürgen Hoffmann, Head of Industrial Investment & Services | Telephone +49 (0)69-298 99-0 | [email protected]
www.realestate.bnpparibas.de
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