Transcript VermontWindTiers2.ppt

Wind Capacity Tiers
PSB Cost Analysis Subgroup
William Basa
Ben Beinecke
JULY 2009
Wind Capacity Tiers Make Sense for VT FIT
Wind Capacity Tiers make sense because wind turbines
have economies of scale
• Cost per kilowatt decreases as capacity increases (negative slope)
• Cost per kilowatt decreases with a non-linear relationship to
capacity (logarithmic shape to curve)
• Dividing capacity into tiers helps minimize variation in cost
• Capacity Tiers should be small at low capacities and large at high
capacities
• NPS has proposed 3 Tiers above the 15 kW designation:
• Small Wind: 16 to 100 kW
• Mid-Size Wind: 101-500 kW
• Utility Scale: 501-2200 kW
• These recommendations largely agree with REV’s proposed tiers
•
<15kW, 15-150kW, 151-500kW, >501kW
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
“Small Wind” Tier Based on Existing Definitions
American Wind Energy Association (AWEA)
• Small Wind “defined as having rated capacities 100 kilowatts or
less”
US Federal Government for Investment Tax Credit/ARRA
• Eligible small wind property includes wind turbines 100 kW or less in
capacity.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL)/Department of Energy
• “Small wind turbine” refers to a turbine less than or equal to 100
kW.”
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Methodology
Develop a cost curve based on publicly available information
on installed costs of commissioned wind energy projects
• Not a perfect approximation of cost at any capacity (not meant to
be), but accurate enough to show trend in data (ie economies of
scale, decreasing costs)
Test existing tiers (less than or equal to 15 kW; >15 kW) for
cost variance
Divide cost curve into tiers based on existing definitions of
wind projects and cost variance
Test tiers for cost variance
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Published Installed Costs as Chart Data
Project
Location
Machine
Turbine
Capacity
Installed
Cost
Cost per
kW
Sources:
Hypothetical
Hypothetical
MariahPower
1
$9,500
$7,917
http://www.windenergy.com/news/news_Wind_Wire_4-17-09.html
Hypothetical
Hypothetical
Skystream
2
$19,000
$7,917
http://www.windenergy.com/news/news_Wind_Wire_4-17-09.html
Hypothetical
Hypothetical
Bergey
10
$65,000
$6,500
http://www.windenergy.com/news/news_Wind_Wire_4-17-09.html
Ocean Gate
Ocean Gate,
NJ
50
$300,000
$6,000
http://www.app.com/article/20090629/NEWS/90629099/1070/NEWS02
Hypothetical
Hypothetical
Northern Power
100
$550,000
$5,500
Northern Power
Bartlett Farm
Nantucket,
MA
Furhlander
250
$1,000,000
Sand Bay Wind Farm
Falkland
Islands
Enercon E33
330
$1,040,024
Holy Name
Worcester,
MA
Vestas RRB 600
600
$1,500,000
Mass. Maritime Academy
Buzzards
Bay, MA
660
$1,500,000
Portsmouth Abbey
Rhode Island
Vestas V47
660
Jiminy Peak
Hancock, MA
GE 1.5 sle
Berkshire Wind
$4,000
$3,152
$2,500
http://www.plumtv.com/videos/bartletts-farm-windmill/index.html
www.falklands.gov.fk/site/legco/155-08.pdf
www.holyname.net
$2,273
http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071118/BIZ/711180311/1/NEWS
$1,250,000
$1,894
http://www.portsmouthabbey.org/page/1018/
1500
$3,900,000
$2,600
www.informationweek.com
Brodie, MA
1500
$4,500,000
Stetson II
Maine
1500
$3,529,412
Mars Hill
Maine
1500
$3,035,714
Rollins
Maine
1500
$3,000,000
PMLD
Princeton,
MA
1550
$3,650,000
Otis Air National Guard
Otis, MA
Vestas V82
1650
$4,600,000
$2,788
www.boston.com
Kibby Mountain
Maine
Vestas
3000
$7,272,727
$2,424
www.transcanada.com/news/2008_news/20080709.html
$3,000
http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2008/06/09/daily39.html
$2,353
http://www.bangordailynews.com/detail/100847.html
$2,024
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Maine#Stetson_Wind_Farm
$2,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Maine#Stetson_Wind_Farm
$2,355
http://www.pmld.com/WindFarm.htm
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
Logarithmic
Existing
Proposal
Trendline
for Single Tier above 15kw
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt
by Turbine Capacity
y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
($/kW)
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Nam eplate Capacity (kW)
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
2500
3000
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt
by Turbine Capacity
y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$9,000
Existing Single Tier Proposal:
16-2200kW
$8,000
$7,000
($/kW)
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
Statute Proposed Single Tier: 16-2200 kW
$0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Nam eplate Capacity (kW)
$7,000
R2 = 0.8095
$6,000
$5,000
Approx. $/kW
Cost
Variation
$4,000
~$4200
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
0
500
1000
1500
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
2000
2500
2500
3000
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt
by Turbine Capacity
y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$9,000
$8,000
$6,000
($/kW)
NPS Proposed Tier 2: 16-100 kW
$7,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
NPS Proposed Tier 2: 16-100 kW
$0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Nam eplate Capacity (kW)
$7,000
$6,000
R2 = 0.9492
$5,000
Approx. $/kW
Cost
Variation
$4,000
~$1400
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
0
20
40
60
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
80
100
120
2500
3000
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt
by Turbine Capacity
y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
NPS Proposed Tier 3: 101-500 kW
($/kW)
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
NPS Proposed Tier 3: 101-500 kW
$0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Nam eplate Capacity (kW)
$5,000
$4,500
$4,000
R2 = 0.9612
Approx. $/kW
$3,500
Cost
Variation
$3,000
~$1350
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
0
100
200
300
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
400
500
600
2500
3000
Wind Energy Installed Cost per Kilowatt
by Turbine Capacity
y = -838.03Ln(x) + 8477.5
R2 = 0.9236
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
NPS Proposed Tier 4: >501 kW
($/kW)
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
NPS Proposed Tier 4: 501-2200 kW
$0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Nam eplate Capacity (kW)
$3,500
$3,000
R2 = 0.9665
$2,500
Approx. $/kW
Cost
Variation
$2,000
~$1300
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
0
500
1000
1500
Nameplate Capacity (kW)
©2009. Northern Power Systems. All Rights Reserved. Not to be used or shared without permission. Proprietary and Confidential.
2000
2500
2500
3000