Transcript loadforecastslides.ppt

Load Forecasting within Vermont
& New England
Docket 7081 workshop
9/13/05
What forecasts exist?
• ISO-NE publishes annual forecasts within their
Capacity, Energy, Loads and Transmission
report (CELT)
– This report now includes forecasts for all of New
England and by state
• The DPS has from time to time created a statewide load forecast, with the last one created in
2002
• VELCO examines, on a regular basis, historic
information for comparison against existing
forecasts
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What methodologies are used in
these forecasts
• ISO-NE uses information provided in FERC 715
submittals to create a state by state, and with
historical load information, creates a load
database which is then weather normalized to
provide regional and state peak load forecasts
– This forecast includes a set of predicted peak loads
for the potential spectrum of weather
– ISO-NE’s methodology is available at:
• http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/celt/fsct_detail/index.html
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What is the latest ISO-NE forecast
for New England?
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How do the latest Vermont peak
load forecasts compare?
Year
2005 CELT 90/10
2005 CELT 50/50
2004 CELT 90/10
DPS 2002
2004
-
-
1085
1060
2005
1100
1045
1105
1073
2006
1130
1070
1120
1109
2007
1145
1085
1130
1130
2008
1160
1100
1145
1145
2009
1175
1115
1155
1164
2010
1185
1125
1170
1182
2011
1200
1140
1185
1202
2012
1210
1150
1200
1224
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What is the historic data VELCO
would use for a forecast?
Vermont seasonal peaks
1100
1050
1000
950
VT load
900
850
max sum
max win
800
750
700
650
600
550
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
1980 to 2005
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What might the short-term trend
be?
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What information can VELCO provide to
assist this process?
• VELCO has VT-wide load information from 1991 to today
• VELCO has detailed information within the state from
2002 to today
– Can examine load trends in specific areas within the state based
on subtransmission information VELCO now has
– Can correlate the load information with temperature information
we are collecting around the state
– This information will be used to provide better information to the
ISO-NE and DPS forecasting efforts
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