Transcript Motivans OOSCI Pisa for development June 2013

Identifying and profiling out of school
populations – lessons from the UNICEF/UIS
Out of School Children Initiative
PISA for Development, Paris, 27-28 June
Albert Motivans, UNESCO Institute for Statistics
Jordan Naidoo, UNICEF
Slowdown in educational progress
Number of primary school-aged
children out of school, 2000- 2011
Number
An unfinished education agenda
• 69 million young adolescents were out of school
• 31 million out-of-school young adolescents in
South and West Asia although there much
progress for girls
• Sub-Saharan Africa (22 million) has been almost
no change in participation rates or gender parity
• Little progress in reducing dropout–34 million
children left school before reaching the last
grade of primary education - an early school
leaving rate of 25% – the same level as in 2000.
What is the Out of School Children Initiative?
Objective: To reduce the number of out of school children
by addressing gaps in data collection, analysis and policy
on out of school children
- National teams/partners coordinated by UNICEF and UIS
Around half of
the world’s
OOSC live in
these countries
Three core objectives
1. Data: Develop comprehensive profiles of excluded
children drawing on a range of data sources using
innovative measurement approaches
2. Analysis of barriers: Link quantitative data with the socio-
cultural barriers and resource-based bottlenecks that
create exclusion
3. Implement policies: Identify policies which reduce
exclusion from education (especially among groups most
disadvantaged) from a multi-sectoral approach
Five dimensions of exclusion model
Data sources: Administrative data/hh-based surveys
Key outputs: OOS Typologies and disaggregated profiles
Problems in identifying age cohorts
• Administrative data (supply-side)
– School reporting problematic, capture systems weak
– Often collected in completed years not. DOB
– Age distribution seems to overstate participation in
younger ages – and understate (or gets right?) older ages
• Household survey data (demand-side)
– Proxy reporting problematic, age-heaping
– Often collected in completed years not. DOB
– Age distribution seems to overstate participation in older
ages – understate (or gets right?) younger ages
Population distribution by
single year of age Nigeria, 2008
Where are 15 year olds in schools?
Overage pupils by grade in Brazil
% students who are one or more years over-age
by grade and location, 2009
Source: Brazil OOSCI report
http://www.uis.unesco.org/Education/Documents/OOSCI%20Reports/brazil-oosci-report-2012-pr.pdf
Lower secondary school age students
by level attended in Zambia, 2007
Source: UIS calculations based on Zambia DHS 2007
Where are 15 year-old girls in Cambodia?
Source: DHS, Cambodia 2010-11
School attendance by age and household wealth
India 2000 MICS:
IndiaSchool
2000att. by wealth
Richest 20%
14
Indonesia 2002-03
DHS: School
att. by wealth
Indonesia
2002-03
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Poorest 20%
13
12
Age (years)
11
10
9
Richest 20%
Poorest 20%
India 2000 MICS: School att. by sex
8
7
14
Male
6
13
5
100
80
60
12
40
Primary
20
0
20
Attendance rate (%)
40
60
Secondary
11 2001 DHS:
Mali
att. by wealth
MaliSchool
2001
Left school
Never
in school
100
80
60
40
100
Primary
Left school
2080 0
20
60
Attendance rate (%)
40
40 60
Primary
Left school
100
80
Higher
80
20
40
Primary
20
0
20
Attendance rate (%)
40
60
Secondary
24
Richest 20%
23 Primary school: 7-12 years. Secondary school: 13-18 years.
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
80
0 100 20
Attendance rate (%)
Higher
60
Nigeria
2003 DHS: School
att. by wealth
2003
Left school NigeriaNever
in school
Poorest 20%
Secondary
Never in school
Primary school: 7-12 years. Secondary school: 13-18 years.
100
Age (years)
24
Richest 20%
23 Primary school: 6-10 years. Secondary school: 11-17 years.
10
22
21
20
9
19
18
17
16
8
15
14
13
7
12
11
10
6
9
8
7
5
6
5
80
Female
100
60
40 40
Primary
Left school
20
60 0 8020
Attendance rate (%)
100
Higher
Poorest 20%
40
100 60
Secondary
Never in school
Secondary
Higher
Primary school: 6-11 years. Secondary school: 12-17 years.
Never in school
80
80
Higher
100
How many and who are out of school?
Out-of-school children of lower secondary
school age, Pakistan, 2006-07
Source: UIS calculations based on Pakistan DHS 2006-07
School exposure of out-of-school children,
by household wealth in Pakistan, 2006-07
Source: UIS calculations based on Pakistan DHS 2006-07
Out-of-school children from poor households
are more likely to never attend school
Nigeria
73
Yemen
45
Ghana
33
Timor-Leste
29
Kenya
23
Liberia
23
DR Congo
15
Cambodia
3
Colombia
1
Brazil
1
Zambia
-2
Kyrgyzstan
Bolivia
-12
-21
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Difference "will never attend" poorest-richest (%)
Source: Household survey data, 2006-2010. Data for children of primary school age.
Considerations
• There is potential for using OOSCI results to help design a
strategy to reach youth
– In schools (across grades and levels)
– Outside of schools
• Disadvantage mediates school progression and out of
school status
• Recognise technical limitations
– Measuring age is problematic
– Coverage issues (reaching most disadvantaged)
– Use of national data for targeting and profiling is still limited
• Sampling strategies
• Presenting assessment results
– On-time, late, out of school