Transcript Nutrition, Health and Chronic Diseases

NUTRITION, HEALTH AND
CHRONIC DISEASES
Franco Sassi PhD
OECD, Health Division
3rd OECD Food Chain Network meeting
Paris, 25-26 October 2012
UN High-level Meeting on NCDs
Leading Risk Factors for Health
Attributable Mortality, 2004
Source: WHO, 2009
Deaths from NCDs
Worldwide, by Income Group
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
2004
2015
High income
Lower-middle income
Higer-middle income
Low income
Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008
2030
The Obesity Epidemic
75%
- - - Past projection
New data points
70%
65%
Rate of overweight
60%
55%
Canada
50%
USA
England
45%
Spain
40%
Italy
35%
France
30%
Korea
25%
1970
1980
2000
1990
Year
Source: OECD Obesity Update, 2012
2010
2020
Obesity: a Global Epidemic
• In Brazil, obesity tripled
in men and doubled in
women in 30 years; in
India, up to 40% are
overweight in urban areas
• Diabetes in China is now
as common as in the US
• Obesity accounts for less
than 1% of GDP in most
OECD countries, over 1%
in the US and up to 4% in
China
India
China
Russia
OECD
Brazil
S Africa
UK
Mexico
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% of adult population
Overweight and Obesity in Children
Children aged 5-17 years who are overweight (including obese), latest available estimates
Girls
Boys
Korea
Turkey
Poland
Sw itzerland
Japan
Norw ay
France
Denmark
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Germany
Netherlands
Finland
Sw eden
OECD
Portugal
Spain
Australia
Slovenia
Iceland
Hungary
Canada
United Kingdom
Chile
New Zealand
Mexico
Italy
United States
Greece
9.9
10.3
12.4
13.1
14.4
14.7
14.9
15.2
16.2
16.9
17.6
17.9
19.1
19.5
21.4
21.6
22.9
24.0
24.4
25.5
25.9
26.1
26.6
27.1
28.8
29.0
30.9
35.9
37.0
40
30
20
10
16.3
16.7
16.2
12.9
13.1
14.1
17.5
24.6
22.6
14.7
23.6
17.0
22.9
23.5
32.9
22.0
28.7
22.0
25.5
28.9
22.7
28.6
28.2
28.1
32.4
35.0
45.0
China
South Africa
India
Russian Fed.
Brazil
4.5
17.7
18.3
19.8
21.1
50
16.2
11.3
0
% of children aged 5-17 years
Source: International Association for the Study of Obesity (2011).
5.9
13.6
20.6
24.2
23.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
% of children aged 5-17 years
The Cost of Obesity
France
Australia
Germany
Canada
New Zealand
Portugal
US
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
% of healthcare budget
Sources: Roux & Donaldson, 2004; Konnopka et al., 2011
5%
6%
7%
What Can Prevention Achieve?
An Affordable Prevention Package
5
4.5
US$ per head
4
3
2
1.2
1
0.4
0
India
China
Brazil
High blood pressure & cholesterol
Alcohol use
South Africa
Russian
Mexico
Federation
Unhealthy diet and physical inactivity
Tobacco use
Where Do We Go from Here?
• Search for more causes?
• Many causal factors irreversible and likely
to have increased welfare, overall
• Need to search solutions that work:
– Effective at individual level
– Meaningful impact at population level
– Cost-effective
– Positive impact on health disparities
What Solutions?
• Increasing choice
• Information, education, influencing
established preferences (nudging)
• Raising prices on unhealthy choices
• Banning unhealthy behaviours
Prevention is Everyone’s Business
Ministry of
Health
Government
International
Organizations
Civil Society
Ministry of
Education
Ministry of
Transport
Ministry of
Agriculture
Private
Industries
Academia
Interest
Groups
What are We Here for?
• Breaking barriers
– Listening to each other
– Opening our minds to different perspectives
• Improving our understanding of:
– What is at stake
– What works
– What solutions are viable