Download Presentation 1

Download Report

Transcript Download Presentation 1

The Discrete Fourier Transform
Leigh J. Halliwell, FCAS, MAAA
[email protected]
Brian Fannin, ACAS, MAAA
[email protected]
CASE Spring Meeting
Middle Tennessee State University
March 22, 2016
1
Antitrust Notice
The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to adhering
strictly to the letter and spirit of the antitrust laws. Seminars
conducted under the auspices of the CAS are designed
solely to provide a forum for the expression of various points
of view on topics described in the programs or agendas for
such meetings.
Under no circumstances shall CAS seminars be used as a
means for competing companies or firms to reach any
understanding – expressed or implied – that restricts
competition or in any way impairs the ability of members to
exercise independent business judgment regarding matters
affecting competition.
It is the responsibility of all seminar participants to be aware
of antitrust regulations, to prevent any written or verbal
discussions that appear to violate these laws, and to adhere
in every respect to the CAS antitrust compliance policy.
2
Outline
I.
Complex Numbers
II. Roots-of-Unity Random Variables
III. Collective-Risk Model
IV. Examples
3
I. Complex Numbers
Basic Arithmetic
ii  1
z  x  iy
z  x  iy
zz   x  iy  x  iy 
 xx  xiy  iyx  iyiy
 xx  yy
Complex Plane versus Real Line
Wessel(1979)-Argand(1806) diagram [Kramer, 73]
No trichotomy between complex numbers
4
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
Completeness of Complex Numbers
1 i
jj  i  j  
2
Fundamental Theorem of Algebra [Kramer, 71]
Actuaries should examine the meaning of their formulas with
complex numbers. Or are they just “imaginary” numbers?
Conjugate Theorems
uv uv
u v  u v
f  z    ak z k  f  z    ak z k
k


k
ak   ak  ak  f  z    ak z k  f  z 
k
5
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
The exponential function

ez  
k 0
zk
k!

ez  
k 0
zk
 ez
k!
Absolutely convergent, since k! outgrows zk.
k
l
k l






u
v
u
v
u v




e e  
 




k!l!
 k 0 k!  l 0 l! 

n

u k v nk
1 n
n!
 
 
u k v nk
n  0 k  0 k!n  k !
n  0 n! k  0 k!n  k !
n

n
  k nk

1
u  v
    u v

 eu v
n!
n  0 n! k  0  k 
n 0

n
6
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
The real exponential
e :    is 1-to-1 (increasing)
every unit is e more than before. “Real” exponential growth
The wheat and chess problem
What is “imaginary” exponential growth?
ez 
ez ez 
ezez 
e zz 
e x x 
e xe x  e x
The distance of ez from O is invariant to the imaginary part of z
e iy  e 0iy  e 0  1
We’re almost to Euler’s famous formula (see next)
7
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
f t   e it  f t   i  e it  i  f t 
Velocity here is proportional to position
But multiplication by i is counterclockwise rotation by 90°
So f(t) is circular motion; must repeat every 2π radians
“Will it Go Round in Circles?” Billy Preston 1972
Euler’s Formula:
e i  2  1
e i  cos   i sin 
“Imaginary” growth is circular, with period 2πi
The basis of polar coordinates:
x  iy  rei
8
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
Never again need you forget your trig identities!
cos     i sin      e i     e i e i
 cos   i sin  cos   i sin  
 cos  cos   sin  sin  
 i cos  sin   sin  cos  
Physical or Actuarial Application??
As
Varθ   , e iθ becomes uniform circular
Infinite variance can be “domesticated” exponentially
Integral powers of
e i1 are dense but unordered on Κ – chaos
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
What is legitimate exponentiation, or zs? Use logs:
z  0s  e s ln z
 e s ln z i2 
 e s ln z e i2s
  z  0   e i2s
s
Uniquely defined only for integral values of s.
like a double-slit experiment that recombines before we can see it
real exponential allows for well defined (x>0)y, but not extendable to C.
10
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
The Circle Group (multiplicative):
Κ  z  C : z  zz  1
closed under multiplication
a) associative
b) identity element
c) inverse:
z 1  z
n
The “nth Roots of Unity” Group Ωn  z  C : z  1  Κ
primitive root ω
n distinct numbers
1   0 ,  1  e
i
2
n
, ,  n 1 ,  n  1
11
I. Complex Numbers (Cont’d)
Excel Graphs of Ωn
Findings
nth roots of unity sum to zero for n > 1
The kth powers of Ωn equal Ωm , where m = n/GCF(k, n)
e.g., squares of tenth roots are the fifth roots of unity
e.g., outer join of second and third roots = sixth roots
e.g., outer join of second and fourth roots = fourth roots
e.g., if n is prime, kth powers of Ωn equal Ωn for 0 < k < n
Ωn groups are useful in number theory (prime factorization)
12
II. Roots-of-Unity Random Variables
The Ωn RV:


Prob Z   k  pk

k  0,1,  , n  1 n  1

Because Prob Z n  1  1, only n distinct moments:
1
1  1 1 
 Z  1    k

 
  

E j   
j
jk
Z
1



 
  

 n 1  
n 1
 n 1k
 Z  1 
m   nn  p


  p0 
 n 1   p1 
  

j  n 1  

  pk 
  

 n 1 n 1  

  pn 1 
1
13
II. Roots-of-Unity Random Variables (Cont’d)
Ω is the (nxn) discrete Fourier transform
jk
mod jk , n 
symmetric:
invertible:
jk    
1
  n
     
n 1
1
jl
jk
l 0
lk

n 1
n  1 n    jl lk
l 0
n 1
 1 n     j  k l   jk  I n  jk
l 0
One-to-one matching between probabilities
moments. Ω1 is the inverse Fourier transform
and
14
II. Roots-of-Unity Random Variables (Cont’d)
If Z1 and Z2 are independent Ωn RVs, then:

 
    
E Z1Z 2   E Z1 Z 2  E Z1  E Z 2
j
j
j
j
j
DFT Z1Z 2   DFT Z1  DFT Z 2 
pZ1Z 2  pZ1  pZ 2

pZ1Z 2   1 pZ1  pZ 2

Isomorphism between <[Z]n, +> and < Ωn, ×>:
j  k  l mod n   j k   l
Circles fundamental to lines, for lines are circles of infinite radius.
15
III. Collective-Risk Model
Severities X and claim count N are all independent:
S  X1  X 2    X N

DFT S    DFT X   ProbN  k 
k
k 0

 E DFT X 
If N ~ Poisson(λ):
 
N



k 0
k 0
E z N   z k e  k k!  e    z  k!  e  e z  e   z 1
DFT S   e   DFT  X 1
k
Exact probabilities under arithmetic modulo n
What is the mean of an exponential RV wrapped around limit l?
16
IV. Examples
1. Binomial probabilities to overflow
2. Klugman example
3. Non-probabilistic DFT uses
a. Binomial coefficients
b. Combining AQ pattern in AY pattern
17
References
•
Clark, Allan, Elements of Abstract Algebra, New York: Dover, 1984
- Introduction: theory of equations as the start of modern algebra
- Chapter 2: group theory, circle group, cosets, homo- and isomorphisms
•
•
Halliwell, L., “The Discrete Fourier Transform and Cyclical Overflow,”
Variance, 8:1, 2014, 73-79, www.variancejournal.org/issues/08-01/73.pdf
“
, “Complex Random Variables,” CAS E-Form, Fall 2015,
www.casact.org/pubs/forum/15fforum/Halliwell_Complex.pdf
•
Kramer, Edna E., The Nature and Growth of Modern Mathematics,
Princeton University Press, 1981.
- Ch 4 (70-82): complex numbers, Hamilton, quaternions
- Ch 28: Grassman, Noether, twentieth-century algebra and physics
•
Klugman, S. A., H. H. Panjer, and G. E. Willmot, Loss Models: From
Data to Decisions, New York: Wiley, 1998.
- §4.7.1: fast Fourier transform
18