Transcript Piekielek.ppt

Modeling Future Whitebark Pine
Competition with other Species
Nathan Piekielek
Whitebark pine project planning
session
Objective
• Create future spatially-explicit species
distribution models for GYE:
– Douglas fir
– Lodgepole pine
– Others?
• Incorporate competition into future models
• Compare to simulation modeling results
Douglas Fir
Results
778 Presence
Models: BRT, MARS, RF
Predictors: tmin4, pptannave,
permave
AUC: 0.83 – 0.87
Crossval: 0.815 – 0.83
% Correct Classified: 75 – 78.3%
Crossval: 73.6 – 76.2%
Lodgepole Pine
Results
1071 Presence
Models: BRT, GLM, MARS, RF
Predictors: gdd5, deft10,
pptannave, sandfract, siltfract
permave, phave
AUC: 0.75 – 0.89
Crossval: 0.75 – 0.83
% Correct Classified: 69.3 – 80.6%
Crossval: 69.5 – 75.6%
Draft Future Results – Douglas Fir
Probability of Presence
0.82
0.16
PRESENT
RCP 8.5
2070 - 2100
Geographic Properties of Areas of Suitable Climate (RCP 8.5)
Prob. Presence > 50%
Area
Current
41,191 km2
2040
2070
2100
5,237 km2
(87% reduction)
Mean elevation
Elevation Range
2,073 m
2,337 m
(6,801 ft)
(7,667 ft)
965 – 3,301 m
1,317-3,922 m
(3,166 – 10,830 ft)
(4,320 – 12,867 ft)
Examining present day
competition
N=454 FIA sites
23 sites WBP only
Examining present day
competition with
Douglas fir
N=60 FIA sites
Examining present day
competition with
Lodgepole pine
N=189 FIA sites
Examining present day
competition with
Engelmann spruce
N=289 FIA sites
Examining present day
competition with
Subalpine fir
N=331 FIA sites
One way future competition options
• Binary:
– WBP in presence of some other species always
loses (i.e. model future WBP absence)
• Continuous:
– Use probability of presence of competitors to
“adjust down” probability of presence of WBP
• Other?