Transcript m5progress

Progress Report and
Recent Developments
Carol S. Carson
AEG Meeting
March 19-23, 2007
Plan of the presentation
• Background: Timeline since last AEG
meeting
• Overview: Project Manager’s progress
report of February 25, 2007
• Statistical Commission, 2007
– ISWGNA report to the Statistical Commission
– Statistical Commission discussion, February
27-28
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Timeline since last AEG meeting
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March-September: consistency issues, e-consults
April: Full Set of Provisional Recommendations
Mid September: close of country comment period
October: First draft chapters posted for comment
October-November: ISWGNA review of comments
December: ISWGNA report to Statistical
Commission, along with …
– January: Full Set of Consolidated Recommendations
– February: Supplement to the report
• February: Statistical Commission
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Project Manager’s Report
• Recommendations for Rev. 1
– Five-step process—agreement on a list of
issues, research by experts, consideration of
proposals by AEG, circulation of
recommendations for comment, review of
comments by ISWGNA—was professional
and transparent
– Wide agreement of international statistical
community on most recommendations (more
later)
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Project Manager’s Report (cont’d)
• Drafting and review of the chapters
– Status: 10 chapters (of a total of 27) have
been posted (two more circulated to AEG)
• Include the 8 about the sequence of accounts and
two new chapters
• Account for about two-thirds of the occurrences in
existing text in which changes are needed to
incorporate recommendations
– Comments received:
• 17-19 sets of comments on most chapters
• Wide range, some far-reaching
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Project Manager’s Report (cont’d)
• Drafting and review of the chapters (cont’d)
– Stock take is underway
• From perspective of schedule
– Sequence of steps prior to posting a chapter is taking
longer than had been anticipated
– Comments have been more far-reaching than anticipated
such that the processing will take longer than anticipated
• From reviewers’ perspective?
– Some adjustments have been agreed, notably
on a two-phase delivery of Rev. 1 (more later)
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Project Manager’s Report (cont’d)
• Groundwork for implementation
– Background: ISWGNA committed to presenting a
strategy to the Statistical Commission in 2008
– ISWGNA is taking first soundings; see agenda item
on Friday
• Research—again see agenda item on Friday
– Carry forward recommendations as agreed by the
Statistical Commission
– Long-term research agenda for issues outside the
scope and timetable of the update
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Project Manager’s Report (cont’d)
• Message of the report:
– Overall: good process, but some adjustments are
necessary
– There are risks, of course:
• Issues may unravel
• Two-phase delivery of chapters may …
– Lead us to “relax” too much
– Involve tough (that is, time-consuming) considerations about
where to put some material
• Size and complexity of the whole process
–With hard work and focus, we
can pull it off.
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ISWGNA report
• Background:
– Comments were a “gold mine”
– Brought out differing perspectives on national
accounts
• Unanimous or near-unanimous agreement on all
but five AEG recommendations (as presented in
the FSCR)
• ISWGNA in-depth review of the five issues:
– Issue specific
– General factors
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ISWGNA report (con’t)
• The five issues:
– R & D (issue 9): proposes adoption of the
principle of treating research and
development expenditure as fixed capital
formation and the encouragement of focused
work to implement that principle in a sound
and internationally comparable way.
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ISWGNA report (con’t)
• The five issues (cont’d):
– Cost of capital services (issue 15): proposes
for adoption the recommendation
incorporated in the Consolidated
Recommendations with the understanding
that the identification of the cost of capital for
market producers is voluntary within the
recommended supplementary accounts
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ISWGNA report (con’t)
• The five issues (cont’d):
– Capital services on assets owned by non-market
producers (16): brings to the Statistical Commission
the view that more research should be undertaken in
a manner…
– that deals squarely with the unresolved points,
– tests as conclusively as possible the impact on GDP,
and
– takes into account the differing degrees of data
availability around the world.
The ISWGNA is prepared …
– to coordinate this research and
– to report to the Statistical Commission on progress.
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ISWGNA report (con’t)
• The five issues (cont’d):
– Military expenditures (issue 19): considers
that the recommendation in the Consolidated
Recommendations should be adopted
– Goods for processing (issue 40): considers
that the recommendation should be adopted
Summary: took forward the AEG
recommendation on three issues and
presented compromise on two
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Statistical Commission
• Setting: long discussion, with 30 + interventions
spread over two days
• Key points in the “decision” relevant to AEG:
– Adopted the package of recommendations
– Emphasized need for…
• guidelines on when to recognize pension entitlements in the
core accounts
• additional research on R&D
• guidelines on goods for processing considering I-O and trade
statistics
• guidelines on integrated measurement of the informal sector
within national accounts
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Statistical Commission
• Key points in the “decision” (cont’d)
– Reiterated its request for the ISWGNA to submit an
implementation strategy in 2008
– Took note of the proposal by the ISWGNA to present
the draft of the update in two volumes:
- framework in 2008
- interpretation and extension in 2009
• ISWGNA had reached the conclusion that this was a
necessary step just below the Commission
• ISWGNA consulted informally with some countries before the
Commission discussion
More about this on Friday
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Statistical Commission (cont’d)
• Key points in the “decision” (cont’d)
– Supported the formation of a high-level group to
examine long-term implications of SNA and possible
future changes, taking into consideration…
• rapid changes of the global economy,
• the need to balance users’ needs, theory and the ability to
collect primary data,
• the choice between imputed versus observable transactions,
and
• the role of satellite accounts vis-à-vis the core accounts.
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Statistical Commission (cont’d)
• Now that the dust is settling:
– AEG can be pleased with the Statistical
Commission’s decision on the Update
recommendations
– The pulls and pressures on national accounts
will continue
– Acceptance of the proposal for two-volume
Rev. 1 should be taken as a good omen for
the remaining efforts
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Thank you
Contact:: [email protected]
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