Transcript Powerpoint presentation

Panel discussion: Q2a
A.S. Young
ILO Bureau of Statistics
Unemployment rates: UK & France
14
12
United Kingdom ILO
Comparable estimates
10
United Kingdom ILO
Yearbook
6
France ILO Comparable
estimates
%
8
France ILO Yearbook
4
2
Years
D2000
D1999
D1998
D1997
D1996
D1995
D1994
D1993
D1992
D1991
D1990
D1989
D1988
D1987
0
ILO-Comparable annual employment and
unemployment estimates
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Requirements
– Source of data: regular labour force surveys that can generate annual data, e.g.
continuous surveys, monthly, quarterly or 6-monthly surveys, or an annual survey
with period that is considered as representative of the year.
– Survey concepts: Inclusion in labour force of CFW, non-seeking unemployed,
lay-offs, armed forces (conscripts and career members), minimum age
– Coverage: Complete geographical (including all rural), total non-institutional
population, all branches of economic activity, all sectors
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Adjustments:
– Full coverage, standardized age groups for core active ages, annual averages
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Series (total, sex, yearly for 10 years)
– LFPR, unemployment rate, labour force (civilian, total), employment (total, age
groups, economic sectors), unemployment (total, age groups)
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Metadata:
– National source (title, coverage, type and time reference), Concept and definition
differences (inclusions & exclusions), Adjustments, Averaging method
Metadata
France
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Source: Official monthly estimates of
unemployment based on the annual
Employment Survey (LFS) and monthly
records of the National Employment Agency.
Official quarterly estimates of employment
based on Population Censuses updated by
various administrative sources i.e. social
security bodies, and establishment surveys.
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Population covered: All employed and
unemployed persons aged 15 years and
over living in private households, including
career members of the armed forces.
Conscripts are excluded as is the
institutional population i.e. hospital, school
and hotel staff living within an establishment,
members of religious communities, mobile
homes, prison populations, seafarers, etc.
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National data: Annual averages based on
monthly or quarterly observations.
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Concept differences: Employment:
Excluded (a) conscripts treated as inactive;
(b) Persons who worked only a few hours
during the reference week
United Kingdom
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Source: Labour Force Survey, continuous.
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Population covered: All persons aged16
years and over living in private households,
including career armed forces personnel,
plus students in residence halls
(enumerated at parents' address), plus
National Health Service (NHS) and hospital
staff living in NHS/hospital trust
accommodations. Other institutional
populations and communal army bases are
excluded.
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National data: The survey is continuous,
providing quarterly results. Three-month
rolling averages are published on a monthly
basis. These are used to calculate the
annual averages. The UK working age
population is 16-59 for women and 16-64 for
men. Civilian excludes armed forces based
on SOC2000 (a new question introduced in
the LFS from Spring 2003 gives more
comprehensive measure of armed forces
employees than provided by SOC2000).
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Concept differences; Employment:
Excluded (a) military in army bases; (b)
unpaid apprentices.
Adjustments
(a) are included in employment and
total labour force and grouped with
career members of the armed forces
under Services and in age-groups 1524 and 25-49. The data on (b) can be
obtained from population censuses
and the employment survey. However,
the national authorities consider it
incorrect to combine employment
evaluation methods using annual
series based on census benchmarks
updated by administrative records with
employment survey data (LFS).
Moreover the order of magnitude of
such persons is insignificant.
Working Age population and all estimates
have been provided for the population 16
years and over. (a) are included, based on
the Employer Survey which provides the
armed forces figures. The LFS reports
armed forces (from private households)
around 120,000 to 130,000; by comparison,
the UK Employer Survey gives a total armed
forces figure of just over 200,000, not
considered a very significant difference by
the national authorities. For civilian
employment estimates, armed forces
personnel living in private households have
been removed. (b) is insignificant: the LFS
captures unpaid family workers and people
on government training schemes or other
trade apprenticeships. The number of
apprentices responding “no” to having done
any paid work in the reference week should
not be significant. The number of unpaid
family workers is around 100,000; the
number on training programmes 150,000, so
missing unpaid apprentices should
represent a considerably smaller group.