Transcript PPT

Session 4:
Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility
and migration
• Historical trends in life expectancy, fertility
and migration
Life expectancy
Life expectancy by sex (at birth) in years, both sexes combined
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
World
2020
Africa
2030
Europe
2040
2050
Japan
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Africa: Life expectancy
Life expectancy (at birth) in years, both sexes combined, African countries
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Africa: Life expectancy
The five African countries with the highest and the lowest life expectancy,
2005-2010
Rank
Country
Life expectancy at birth, bot
sexes combined
1
2
3
4
5
Réunion
Mayotte
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Tunisia
Cape Verde
77.26
77.14
74.04
73.90
73.54
50
51
52
53
54
Guinea-Bissau
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Lesotho
Central African Republic
46.76
46.59
46.26
46.02
45.91
Session 04_Demographic Trends_Presentation.xlsx
Fertility levels
Fertility
Total fertility (children per woman)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
World
2020
Africa
2030
2040
Europe
2050
Japan
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Niger
TFR naïve estimates
Official estimates
1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
National Trend
1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 WPP Revision
1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
1988 census
(births < 12 months)
1998 DHS
(births < 3 years)
2001 census
(births < 12 months)
7.0
1992 DHS
(births < 3 years)
2006 DHS/MICS3
(births < 5 years)
6.5
6.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Niger
TFR final estimates
Official estimates
1992 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2000 MICS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
National Trend
1998 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
2001 RGPH P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 WPP Revision
1992 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
1998 DHS P/F ratios (indirect method)
2006 DHS (retrospective birth histories)
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
1988 census
(births < 12 months)
1998 DHS
(births < 3 years)
2001 census
(births < 12 months)
7.0
1992 DHS
(births < 3 years)
2006 DHS/MICS3
(births < 5 years)
6.5
6.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Africa: Fertility
Total fertility (children per woman), African countries
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
International migration
Total migration (in thousands)
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Africa
2030
Europe
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Africa: International Migration
Total migration (in thousands), African countries
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Migration rates
Crude net migration rate
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Africa
2030
Europe
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Africa: Migration rates
Crude net migration rate, African countries
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Winners and losers…
Population change between 2010 and 2100
Nigeria
India
United Republic of Tanzania
United States of America
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Uganda
Zambia
Niger
Kenya
Malawi
Poland
Thailand
Republic of Korea
Germany
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Ukraine
Brazil
Russian Federation
Japan
China
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
Millions
200
300
400
500
600
South-South migration is as common …
South
55 million
2010
73.6 million
North
12.6 million
72.7 million
North
South
…as South-North migration
Source: United Nations, Population Division/DESA, 2011
Momentum
Total population of high-fertility countries by variants, 1950 -2100
Billions
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.5
0.0
1950
1975
2000
Medium
2025
2050
2075
Instant
2100