Transcript The Antebellum Heights Conundrum

Shawn Osell
University of Wisconsin – Superior
[email protected]
1
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Adult stature decreased at a time of significant economic
growth (1800 – 1860).
We expect there to be a positive correlation between the
average heights of a population and increased productivity &
consumption.
Note: life expectancy was also decreasing during this same
time period.
2

Margo and Steckel (1983)

Haines, Craig Weiss (2003)
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Komlos (1987)
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Sokoloff (1984)
3
Real GDP per capita in 2000
dollars
4
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Internal /external mobility and disease;
i.e. domestic trade routes, immigration.
Urbanization, congestion, lack of sanitation
Slow growth in real wages
Environmental degradation
Political strife
(Reviewed in Haines, Craig, and Weis (2003))
5
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Was there a substitution effect between food
prices and manufactured products that
contributed to the decline of average heights
of Americans during the Antebellum Period?
6
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Stature = b0 + b1 farmer
+b2 professional1
+b3 Professional 2
+ b4 artisan
+b5 service
+ b6 manual
+ b7 unproductive
+b8 agricultural worker
+ b9 born in NY
+ b10 born in PA
+b11 Born 1826-1830
+ b12 Born 1831-1835
+b13 Born 1836-1843
+ b14 RPI (Relative Price Index)
+U
Stature = Height of the union army recruit;
Professional1 = manufacturers, teachers, lawyers, and other
professional workers;
Professional2 = clerks, merchants and salesmen;
Artisan = skilled labor including blacksmiths, carpenters, and
masons;
service = service workers including assistants, spinners, and
policemen;
Unproductive = includes those who are not involved in paid
work i.e. retirees, students;
agricultural worker = hired farm workers;
8
born in MW = the army recruit was born in MW;
born in NY = the army recruit was born in NY;
born in PA = the army recruit was born in PA;
Born 1826-1830 = the army recruit was born
1826-1830;
Born 1831-1835 = the army recruit was born
1831-1835;
Born 1836-1843 = the army recruit was born
1836-1843;
RPI = relative price index;
U = disturbance term;
9
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The RPI is a price index of manufactured
goods divided by a price index of agricultural
goods:
Information about army recruits:
Fogel, Robert W., and Stanley Engerman, UNION ARMY RECRUITS IN
WHITE REGIMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1861-1865
Price statistics :
Wholesale commodity prices in the United States, 1700-1861 (Cole,
1938).
The index of this book includes monthly averages of several products for
various different US cities during the antebellum period. However, only
three of the cities were applicable to this research: Cincinnati, New York
City, and Pittsburgh.
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Prices of agricultural goods and prices of manufactured goods
were added together in order to create a price index for both
types of products.
In order to create a price index that reflected price sensitivity
to stature determination, another annual index was created.
These price indexes include the prices of manufactured and
agricultural goods for the time periods t = -1, 1, 6, 7, 12, and
13; where t = 0 is the army soldiers birth year.
These years represent when an individual’s stature is most
sensitive to food consumption.
The variable RPI was created with the two price indexes:
Selected Regression Coefficients
Independent Variable
Intercept
Born in MW
1
2
66.349
(80.224)*
.561
(7.839)*
66.264
(132.959)*
.078
-1.542
(-5.980)
-.78
(2.081)
2.217
(6.419)*
1.808
(7.564)*
1.481
(9.642)*
1.158
(2.153)*
.10
5560
1751
Born in NY
Born in PA
Born 1826-1830
Born 1831-1835
Born 1836-1843
1.803
(11.399)*
1.569
(13.629)*
1.314
(17.364)*
Relative Price Index (RPI)
Adj-R2
N