Transcript Forecasting Enrollment for a New Academic Program: A Masters of Economics Degree?

Graduate Program in Economics?
Amanda Anderson – UW Oshkosh
Faculty Advisors: M. Ryan Haley, Sarinda Taengnoi
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Background
 Increased interest in a graduate program for Economics
 MA Economics existed at UWO until the mid 1980s
 Number of Econ majors has increased from < 20 to nearly 200
 The last 6-8 yrs. many UWO undergrads to grad programs
elsewhere
 Econ dept. joined COB – soon to be in a new state-of-the-art
academic building
 Determine the viability of MA program at UWO
 Many benchmark schools have similar programs
 Determine likelihood of sustaining a new program
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Motivation
 Gain research experience
 The prior failure of a Masters program in
Economics at UWO
 Develop a more efficient and concrete means for
decision making
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Data

Compared to benchmark universities:




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Size 10,000 students and greater
Great Lakes region: IL, WI, OH, MI, IN
At least an undergrad program in Econ
Compiled data for each school on:
 Size

 Rating

 Econ department size

 Degrees available

 Enrollment
Conferment
Admittance scores
Student to faculty ratio
COB relationship
Data Sources
 Integrated Post-secondary Education Database (IPED) by
the U.S. Department of Education.
 StateUniversity.com
 Website for each individual university included in the
study
 Variables: 2008 academic year to current
 47 Universities
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Methodology
 LOGIT model was most appropriate
 Use dummy variable: Econ Grad Program
 Provides a probability model using current school
statistics
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Models
 LOGIT A:
 Dependent variable: Graduate program in Econ dummy
 Independent variables: Economics faculty size, COB dummy,
undergrad Econ diplomas, ACT, student/faculty ratio
 Multicollinearity leading to Z suppression, but pseudo R2 of
0.2477
 LOGIT B:
 Dependent variable: Graduate program in Econ dummy
 Independent variables: COB dummy and ACT
 Reduces multicollinearity, but pseudo R2 decreased to 0.1620
 Most parsimonious model – includes most statistically significant
predictors
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Descriptive Statistics
Variable
Econ faculty
Undergrad Econ diplomas
ACT
Student/faculty ratio
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Mean
24.739
80.674
26.238
20.239
Std Dev
14.863
99.260
3.067
8.214
Probability Results
 LOGIT A =1/(1+ exp (5.582617+1.547932*[COB
dummy]-0.2716347*[ACT]))
 LOGIT B=1/(1+ EXP(-0.2593125+ 0.043009* [Econ
Faculty]+0.6626516* [COB dummy]-0.0182598* [Econ
undergrad diplomas]-0.128417* [ACT]+0.132186*
[student/faculty ratio]))
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Conclusion
Institution
Econ Faculty Part of COB? Grad Program
ProbabilityA
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire
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0
0
81.46%
University of Wisconsin-Madison
53
0
1
92.87%
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
21
0
1
71.84%
University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh
13
1
0
35.18%
University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
10
1
0
35.18%
ErrorA
-81.46%
7.13%
28.16%
-35.18%
-35.18%
ProbB
64.06%
99.58%
68.39%
54.36%
39.27%
ErrorB
-64.06%
0.42%
31.61%
-54.36%
-39.27%
UW Oshkosh has a probability of 35.18% with LOGIT A and
54.36% with LOGIT B indicating that there is evidence that a
Masters of Economics program is supportable and appropriate.
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