Transcript 15. Implications adaptation for economic development Bell

Implications, adaptations & policies
for economic development
Presented by
Johann Bell
Authors
This presentation is based on Chapters 12 and 13 in the
book Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and
Aquaculture to Climate Change, edited by JD Bell, JE
Johnson and AJ Hobday and published by SPC in 2011.
Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to
atmospheric and oceanic
conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for economic
development, food security and
livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce
threats and capitalise on
opportunities
Outline
• Revisit changes in tuna distribution
• Implications for government
revenue and GDP
• Framework for adaptations
 Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies
Projected changes in skipjack tuna
• Future distributions
of tuna are likely to
resemble those
during El Nino events
today
Skipjack tuna
Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)
Projected changes in skipjack tuna
Change in catch relative to 1980-2000
from SEAPODYM model
2000
East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE)
2035
2050
2100
+35-40%
+40-45%
+25-30%
West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW)
2050
2035
2050
2100
~ +10%
Negligible
~ -20%
2050
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
Implications of altered skipjack catch
• General trends for Government revenue and GDP
West
2035
2050
Negligible
East
2100
2035
2050
2100
Implications
• Countries with greatest dependency on tuna
should receive additional benefits!
• Countries in the east could be in a stronger
position to negotiate increased licence fees
from DWFNs in the surface fishery
Implications
• Risks occur mainly in countries where tuna
makes a relatively low contribution to
economic development (due to the large size
of their economies) but where tuna
processing provides many jobs
• Countries in the west may need to source
more fish for canning operations from outside
their EEZs
Implications of altered skipjack catch
Projected changes to gov’t
revenue and GDP available
in SPC Policy Brief 15
Copy of front page of
Policy Brief 15 to be
added
Caution! Preliminary results
• It is the trends that are important, not the
percentage increase
• As models improve, estimated changes in catch
will be more precise
Future distribution of bigeye tuna
2000
2000
Change in catch relative to 1980-2000
from SEAPODYM model
East (15oN-20oS, 130oE-170oE)
2050
2035
2050
2100
< + 5%
-5%
-20%
West (15oN-15oS, 170oE-150oW)
2035
2050
2100
< - 5%
-10%
-30%
Source: Lehodey et al. (2011)
Implications of altered bigeye catch
• General trends for national longline fishing
and local processing opportunities
West
2035
2050
East
2100
2035
2050
• Fiji
2035
2050
2100
+1
+1
-1
2100
Adaptations and policies
• Practical adaptations and policies are needed
to:
 Harness the opportunities for increased
revenue for countries in the east

Reduce the risk of difficulties in supplying
fish for canneries in the west (and job losses)
Adaptation decision framework
Near-term Loss
Near-term Gain
Addresses present drivers
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Lose-Lose
Long-term Gain
Lose-Win
X
X
Win-Lose

Win-Win
X


x
X
After Grafton (2010)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
La Niña
El Niño
Adaptations
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage
effort of industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of
VDS enable all PNA
members to receive some
benefits during ENSO
Ask
events, regardless
of where
tuna are concentrated
Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1977)
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Adaptations
‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage
effort of industrial tuna fleets
• Allocation of vessel days is
adjusted regularly
2050
Ask
S
2100
Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Develop and maintain
trade preferences
• Global sourcing provisions of EPA
with EU assists countries obtain and
export fish
• Helps ensure viable industries as
tuna move east
Photo: Peter Sharples
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Immediate conservation
measures for tuna
• Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and
preventing overfishing of other tuna, will:
 maintain stocks at healthy levels
 make these valuable species more
resilient to climate change
Bigeye tuna
Adaptations
L-L
L-W
W-L
W-W
Energy audits for industrial
fishing vessels
• Addresses likelihood of near-term
rises in fuel costs
• Assists national fleets from west
to go greater distances in the
future to catch fish for their
canneries
Photo: Bruno Leroy
Other adaptations
• Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in
the cyclone belt
• Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent
inundation by rising sea levels and more
severe cyclones
Suggested supporting policies
Promote access agreements that are clear for all
stakeholders; and strengthen national capacity to
implement effort schemes
Adjust tuna management plans to increase
flexibility to sell tuna, or acquire tuna
Include implications of climate change in
management objectives of WCPFC
Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level
catch and effort data to improve tuna models
Suggested supporting policies
Develop further measures to reduce capture of
bigeye tuna by purse-seine
Apply management measures to address the
effects of climate change on tuna in archipelagic
waters
Develop tuna products and distribution channels
that minimise CO2 emissions
Conclusions
• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce
risks and capitalise on opportunities
• Supporting policies are required
• Integrate adaptations and policies into
national strategies and action plans for
climate change