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2.5 BIASES 偏見 Biases and Heuristics 偏見與啟發式教學 At the end of June 2004 , eBay’s stock price reached $180 (on a presplit basis ), well above Meekers’ target price of $106. 在2004年6月底，eBay的股價達到$180 (分裂前為基礎)，高於 Meeker的目標價格$106。 At year-end 2004 its stock price closed 2004 ( presplit ) at $232, and its forward P/E for eBay was 70, well above Meeker’s forecast of 47. Those facts alone in no way indicate that Meeker’s analysis was biased. 在2004年年底股價收盤(分裂前)為$232，和eBay的本益比為70， 高於Meeker預測的47。這些事實沒辦法指出Meeker分析是有 偏見的。 The rate of return associated with a target price of $106 lies above Meeker’s discount rate of 12 percent. 報酬率關聯在目標價格$106在Meeker的折扣率的12%之上。 In this respect , $106 would be upwardly biased , if in April 2003 Meeker judged eBay’s stock to have been fairly priced. Of course, in April 2003 Meeker might have judged eBay’s stock to be undervalued. 在這方面，如果在2003年4月Meeker認為eBay股價是公平的價格 $106美元將會往上漲。當然，在2003年4月Meerker認為eBay股 價是被低估的。 The P/E heuristic is the approach most favored by analysts. 以本益比為評估的法則是接近分析者贊成的方法。 Meeker’s range for the P/E target price was $74 to $111. Her base case estimate of $84 lies below the April 2003 price of $89.22 and therefore gives rise to a negative return. Meeker 目 標 價 格 範 圍 為 $74 到 $111 。 她 的 基 本 估 計 是 $84 在 2003年4月價格$89.22之下，因此是上漲的負報酬。 The PEG heuristic produces a value range that is more negative and is therefore even worse. 以本益比/成長率比值為評估的法則產生的價格範圍是負數因此更 差的。 Unless Meeker judged eBay stock to have been overvalued at the time, it is safe to conclude that the P/E heuristic or the PEG heuristic, or both, produced downward biased estimates of future value. 除非Meeker認為eBay股票被高估，它是安全的結論是 以本益比為評估的法則或以本益比/成長率比值為評估 的法則，或兩者皆是，產生向下降估計的未來價格。 Moreover, the assumptions that underlie the two techniques are not consistent. The P/E heuristic target price computation is premised on a growth rate of 38 percent, whereas the PEG heuristic target price computation is premised on a growth rate of 32percent. 此外，這兩種技術基礎假設是不一致。以本益比為評估的法則目 標價格計算成長比率為38%，反之，以本益比/成長率比值為評估 的法則目標價格計算成長比率為32%。 Moreover, for her PEG calculation, Meeker appears to have used an EPS number of $1.50 for 2004 rather than 2005. Actually, she used $1.42 for EPS, which corresponds to $1.50 discounted back to mid2004, but which she listed as expected cash earnings for the year 2003. 此外，她的PEG計算，Meeker使用2004年的EPS$1.50而不是 2005年。實際上，她使用EPS為$1.42，符合一致$1.50到2004年 中期貼現，但她預期現金收益為2003年。 The target price range of $97 to $210 based on the price-to-sales ratio might well be biased upward. The average of this range produces a return of 63 percent, far above the required return (discount rate) of 12 percent. 目標價格範圍在$97到$210基於價格銷售比率將會向上偏。在此 範圍內的平均產生63％的回報，遠遠高於要求回報率12％（貼現 率）。