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財務管理理論與決策個案報告 Vegetron’s CFO Calls Again 碩財一甲 MA380203 劉自強 Vegetron's CFO Calls Again (The first episode of this story was presented in section5-1.) Later that afternoon, Vegetron's CFO bursts into your office in a state of anxious confusion. The problem, he explains, is a last-minute proposal for a change in the design of the fermentation tanks that Vegetron will build to extract hydrated zirconium from a stockpile of powdered ore. The CFO has brought a printout (Table 5.1) of the forecasted revenues, costs, income, and book rates of return for the standard, low-temperature design. Vegetron's engineers have just proposed an alternative high-temperature design that will extract most of the hydrated zirconium over a shorter period, five instead of seven years. the forecasts for the high-temperature method are given in table5.2 維格公司的首席官當天下午匆匆忙忙的衝到你的辦公室。他談到改變發酵罐設 計問題的最後方案，維格公司打算從庫存礦石中提取氫氧化鋯。首席官帶來一 份印好關於高溫設計的收入、成本、利潤、帳面收益率的預測表。工程師最近 提出一到低溫設計的替代方案，以加快提取過程，將時間由7年縮短為5年。 表5-1指出低溫方案有關的預測數據。 表5-2指出高溫方案有關的預測數據。 Low-temperature(表5-1) Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Revenue 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 Operating Cost 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Depreciation 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 Net income 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 Start-of-year book value 400 343 286 229 171 114 57 Book rate of return 7% 8.2% 9.8% 12.2% 16.4% 24.6% 49.1% High-temperature(表5-2) Year 1 2 3 4 5 Revenue 180 180 180 180 180 Operating Cost 70 70 70 70 70 Depreciation 80 80 80 80 80 Net income 30 30 30 30 30 Start-of-year book value 400 320 240 160 80 Book rate of return 7.5% 9.4% 12.5% 18.75% 37.5% CFO: Why do these engineers always have a bright idea at the last minute? But you're got to admit the high-temperature process looks good. We'll get a faster payback, and the rate of return beats Vegetron's 9% cost of capital in every year except the first. Let's see, income is $30,000 per year. Average investment is half the $400,000 capital outlay, or $200,000, so the average rate of return is 30,000/200, 000, or 15%-a lot better than the 9% hurdle rate. The average rate of return for the Low-temperature process is not that good, only 28,000/200,000,or 14%.Of course we might get a higher rate of return for the lowtemperature proposal if we depreciated the investment faster-do you think we should try that? 首席官:為什麼這些工程師總是在最後一刻才有了一個好主意呢？但你必須承認 高溫提取看起來很好。我們會得到更快的投資回報，和報酬率每年除了第一年 高於維格公司9%的資金成本。讓我們看看，收入是每年 30,000 美元。平均投資 是 400,000 美元資本投入的一半，有 20 萬美元，因此，平均收益率是 30,000/200000，即 15%— — 一個高於 9%的收益率。低溫處理的平均收益率卻 沒那麼好，只有 28,000/200,000 即 14%。當然如果我們對投資加速折舊，我們 就可提高低溫方案的平均收益率，— — 你覺得我們應該試試這招嗎？ YOU: Let’s not fixate on book accounting numbers. Book income is not the same as cash flow to Vegetron or its investors. Book rates of return don't measure the true rate of return. CFO: But people use accounting numbers all the time. we have to publish them in our annual report to investors. YOU: Accounting numbers have many valid uses, but they're not a sound basis for capital investment decisions. Accounting changes can have big effects on book income or rate of return, even when cash flows are unchanged. Here's an example. Suppose the accountant depreciates the capital investment for the low-temperature process over six years rather than seven. Then income for years 1 to 6 goes down, because depreciation is higher. Income for year 7 goes up because the depreciation for that year becomes zero. But there is no effect on year-to-year cash flow, because depreciation is not a cash outlay. It is simply the accountant's device for spreading out the "recovery" of the up-front capital outlay over the life of the project. 你： 我們可別老盯著帳面數據。對維格公司 或其投資者，帳面利潤與現金流量並 不相同。帳面報酬率不能真實的衡量報酬率。 首席官:但大家都在用。我們必須向投資者公布在年報裡。 你：會計有很多有效的用途，但他們不是做資本投資決策的可靠依據。即使現金流 量保持不變，會計方法變更對帳面上的收入或報酬率都有很大的影響。以這個投資 為例，假設會計折舊對低溫方案是六年，而不是七年。因為折舊是提高，然後1 至 6 年的利潤下降。而第7 年的收入因為這年折舊為零而上升。因為折舊不是現金的 支出，不會影響每年的現金流量。它是只是會計方法攤提回收前期的資本支出。 CFO: So how do we get cash flows? YOU: In these cases it's easy. Depreciation is the only noncash entry in your spreadsheet (Tables 5.1 and 5.2),so we can just leave it out of the calculation. Cash flow equals revenue minus operating costs. For the high-temperature process, annual cash flow is: Cash flow=revenue-operating cost=180-70=110,or$110,000 CFO: In effect you're adding back depreciation, because depreciation is noncash accounting expense. YOU: Right. You could also do it that way: Cash flow=net income +depreciation=30+80=110,or$110,000 CFO: Of course. I remember all this now, but book returns seem important when someone shoves them in front of your nose. 首席官：那我們如何得到現金流量？ 你： 在這種情況下很容易。在表格 （表 5.1 和 5.2）中，折舊 是唯一的非現金科目， 所以我們可以把它排除在計算之外。現金流等於收入減去成本。對高溫方案，每年 的現金流量是： 現金流量 = 收入減經營成本 = 180-70 = 110 即 $110,000美元 首席官： 實際上你的折舊加回來了，因為 折舊是非現金科目。 你:當然.你也能這樣做： 現金流量 = 淨利潤 + 折舊 = 30 + 80 = 110 即 $110,000 美元 首席官： 當然。我現在記得這一切了，但當某人把它們放在你面前，帳面收益顯得 也很重要。 YOU: It's not clear which project is better. The high-temperature process appears to be less efficient. It has higher operating costs and generates less total revenue over the life of the project, but of course it generates more cash flow in years 1 to 5. CFO: Maybe the processes are equally good from a financial point of view. If so we'll stick with the low-temperature process rather than switching at the last minute. YOU: We'll have to lay out of the cash flows and calculate NPV for each process. CFO: OK, do that. I'll be back in a half hour-and I also want to see each project's true, DCF rate of return 你： 也不清楚是哪個專案更好。高溫方案似乎是效率較低。且具有較高 的成本，並在專案的生命週期裡收入也少，但在1 到 5 年中會產生更多的 現金流量 。 CFO:也許從財務角度來看，兩個同樣好。如果是這樣那我們繼續採用低溫 方案，也不要改了。 你： 我們還是要知道各個方案的淨現值。 首席官:好，去工作吧。我會在半小時後回來-我也想要看到每個方案的真 實現金流量的報酬率。 QUESTIONS 1. Are the book rates of turn reported in Table 5.1 and 5.2 useful inputs for the capital investment decision? 2. Calculate NPV and IRR for each process. What is your recommendation? Be ready to explain to the CFO. 問題 1.對於資本投資決策來說，表 5.1 和 5.2 有用嗎？ 2.計算 兩種方案的NPV 和 IRR 。你的建議是什麼？向首席官解釋。 NPV CF0 CF0 CFn CF1 CF2 ... (1 r )1 (1 r ) 2 (1 r ) n CFn CF1 CF2 ... 0 1 2 n (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) 1.帳面收益表對資本決策沒有提供有用的意義去影響決策。 現金流量跟帳面收益是不相同的，帳面收益率並不能真實的呈現真實營利能力。 折舊費用在表格中每年都代表扣除額，然而實際上並沒有每年支出這筆費用。 2. (1) 85 85 85 NPVlowtemperature -400 ... 27.8010(千元) 1 2 7 (1 9%) (1 9%) (1 9%) 400 (2) 85 85 85 ... 0, IRRlowtemperature 11.0415% 1 2 7 (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) NPVhightemperature 400 400 110 110 110 ... 27.8616(千元) 1 2 5 (1 9%) (1 9%) (1 9%) 110 110 110 ... 0, IRR hightemperature 11.6488% 1 2 5 (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) (3) 約當年金法 27.801 PMT * PVIFA(9%, 7 ) PMTlowtemperature 5.52(千元) 27.8616 PMT * PVIFA(9%, 5) PMThightemperature 7.16(千元) (4) 重置鏈法 27.801 27.801 27.801 27.801 58.37 7 14 21 28 (1 9%) (1 9%) (1 9%) (1 9%) NPVlowtemperature 58.37(千元) 27.801 27.8616 27.8616 27.8616 27.8616 27.8616 5 10 15 20 (1 9%) (1 9%) (1 9%) (1 9%) 27.8616 27.8616 75.69, NPVhightemperature 75.69(千元) 25 30 (1 9%) (1 9%)