Transcript Indian collapse after European contact: old and new interpretations

Conquest: the Destruction of
the American Indios
Massimo Livi-Bacci
University of Florence
British Society for Population Studies
University of Manchester, September 10-12, 2008
1
2
Estimates of America’s Population
at Contact (million)
ESTIMATES OF AMERICA's POPULATION AT CONTACT (million)
Kroeber
(1939)
Steward
(1949)
Rosenblat
(1954)
Dobyns
(1966)
Denevan
(1976)
Denevan
(1992)
Nort America
Mexico
Central America
Caribe
Andes
Other South America
0,9
3,2
0,1
0,2
3,0
1,0
1,0
4,5
0,7
0,2
6,1
2,9
1,0
4,5
0,8
0,3
4,8
2,0
11,0
33,8
12,2
0,5
33,8
10,1
4,4
21,4
5,7
5,9
11,5
8,5
3,8
17,2
5,6
3,0
15,7
8,6
America
8,4
15,5
13,4
101,3
57,3
53,9
Source: Denevan (1992), pp. xviii e 3.
3
America’s Population 1500-1800
• Contact: unknown number, 100% indios;in
1800=25.0, 45% indios & mestizos:
• 1500-1800: “high returns” to european
immigration. Stock of europeans in
1800=8.0; Net immigration: 2.3; Ratio=3.6
• 1500-1800: “negative returns” to african
“immigration” (slavery): Stock of africans in
1800=5.6; net “immigration”=7.2;
Ratio=0.8
4
The Catastrophe
• Population of America at contact: “high” and
“low” counters (8 to 110 million);
• Hispaniola: 1492=0.2/0.3 (personal estimates:
“modern” estimates ranging 0,06-8.0 !!);
1518=12,000; 1550=extinction (Epid. 1518-19)
• Mexico: 1519=(3.3/37.5): 1568= 3.0; 1608=1,1
(Epid: 1520-21; 1545-47; 1576-80).
• Peru: 1570=1.290; 1600=0,851 (Epid: 1520s,
unlikely; 1558; 1585-91
5
Motolinia’s 10 Plagues
(Mexico)
• (1) Smallpox; (2) War;
• (3) Famine as a consquence of war;
• (4) Cruelty, greed, oppression
(calpixques);
• (5) Heavy tributes and services; (6) Gold;
• (7) Building Mexico city; (8) Enslavement;
• (9) Provisioning the mines;(10) factions
among the Spaniards
6
Origin of infectious diseases in
Amazonia
Table 4: Infectious diseases among indigenous populations in Amazonia
Introduced from elsewhere
Zoonotic
Endemic
Smallpox
Measles
Chicken pox
Mumps
Influenza A and B
Parainfluenza
Polio
Malaria
Hepatitis A
Dengue
Common cold
Rotavirus diarrhea
Diphtheria
Scarlet fever
Whooping cough
Yellow fever
Mayaro fever
Oropouche fever
Toxoplasmosis
Leismaniosis
Trichinosis
Tetanus (?)
Malaria
Herpes type I
Mononucleosis
Cytomegalovirus
Hepatitis B
Ascaris
Amoebiasis
Treponematosis
Syphihlis (?)
Several types of worms
Source: Francis L. Black, “Infectious Diseases and Evolution of Human
Populations. The Example of South American Forest Tribes,” in Alan C.
Swedlund and George J. Armelagos, eds. Disease in Populations in Transition,
New York, Bergin & Garvey, 1990.
7
Smallpox: general characteristics
• Crowd disease: develops in animals living in close
contact: flocks, herds (virus of smallpox, measles etc);
• Interaction, evolution, adaptation: virus migrates to
humans; Eurasia, Africa;
• But not in America: no large mammals (but bison,
turkeys, llamas, dogs); little opportunities for interaction;
low human density; recent settlement of humans;
• Lack of immunity among Indios: everybody susceptible;
• Latency: 12-14 days after infection: no symptoms;
• Infectiousness: 12 day max: high fever, nausea, pains,
eruptions, eventually death
• Mortality of the infected: 20 to 50% according to age.
8
Smallpox Pandemic of the 1520s
9
Smallpox: basic model I
•
•
•
•
•
Interval among outbreaks: ca. 15 years;
80% are infected;
40% of the infected die;
No growth in the population between outbreaks;
Susceptible population after the first outbreak:
20% not infected; 60% of those infected who
survived; newborn in the 15 years interval;
• Population of 1000 at first outbreak reduced to
600 after 15 years and to 423 after 30 years;
• Mortality rate: 40% f.o; 16% s.o.
10
Smallpox: basic model II
• Interval between outbreaks: ca. 15 years;
• 70% are infected (population more dispersed;
learns to escape contagion etc;
• 40% of the infected die at first outbreak, but 30%
at second, third… outbreaks (the sick are not
abandoned etc;
• Population rebounds 15% between outbreaks;
• Initial population of 1000, reduced to 901 after
30 years
11
Mines in Central America
(A=Silver; O=Gold)
12
Area of origin of Potosi’s mitayos
13
Mines in South America
14
Four paradigms after Conquest
Paradigm I: Caribbean (destruction without
epidemics)
• Population disappears; catastrophic decline;
• High ratio Europeans/Indios;
• Enslavement and dislocation;destructuring of
communities;
• Forced labor (gold mines);
• “Appropriation” of young women (F/M=0,8);
• Low fertility (Children/women ratio 0.3);
• High mortality and low fertility: no rebound
15
(Alburquerque’s Repartimiento: first census of
America)
16
Hispaniola’s Population at Contact
(modern estimates)
Table 6: Estimates for the population of Hispaniola at the moment of contact
Author
1 Verlinden
2 Amiama
3 Rosenblatt
4 Mira Caballos
5 Lipschutz
6 Nabel Pérez
7 Moya Pons
8 Cordova
9 N.D. Cook
10 Moya Pons
11 C.N. de Moya
12 Zambardino
13 Denevan
14 Guerra
15 Denevan
16 Watts
17 Borah and Cook
Year
1973
1959
1954, 1976
1997
1966
1992
1987
1968
1993
1971
1976
1978
1992
1988
1976
1987
1971
Population (in 1000s)
60
100
100
100
100/500
250
378
500
500/750
600
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,100
1,950
3-4,000
7,975
17
Indios
18
185 e +
180-184
175-179
170-174
165-169
160-164
155-159
150-154
145-149
140-144
135-139
130-134
125-129
120-124
115-119
110-114
105-109
100-104
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Caciques
Caciques by number of Indios, 1514
Caciques by number of indios
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Paradigm II: Coastal lowlands, Gulf
of Mexico, Peru (catastrophic)
• Higher pathological density; favorable
environment for diffusion of new pathologies;
• Malaria & plasmodium: mortality and emigration;
• Vulnerable environment (coastal valleys of
Peru): appropriation of best land and water
resources;
• High impact of europeans (Peru);
• General dislocation (Brazilian variant)
19
Paradigm III: highlands of Mexico,
Peru (rapid decline and resilience)
• Lesser dislocation of society, but:
• restructuring of settlements (much stronger in
Peru than Mexico);
• Destructive impact of wars in Peru (1520s1540s);
• Radial conformation of Mexican meseta, comblike conformation of Peru: possible impacts on
diffusion of pathologies;
• Lesser impact of pathologies at high altitudes?
20
City of Mexico and Valley of Mexico
21
The Collapse of Mexico’s Population
(according to Cook and Borah)
THE COLLAPSE OF MEXICO's POPULATION
ACCORDING TO COOK AND BORAH
Meseta
1519
1532
1548
1568
1580
1595
1605
15300
11226
4765
2231
1631
1125
852
Coastal
regions
9900
5645
1535
418
260
247
217
Central
Mexico
25200
16871
6300
2649
1891
1372
1069
Indici 1519 = 100
1519
1532
1548
1568
1580
1595
1608
100
73
31
15
11
7
6
100
57
16
4
3
2
2
100
67
25
11
8
5
4
22
Population of New Spain, 1570
(Royal Cosmographer Lopez de Velasco)
Table 9: Population of New Spain according to the Royal Cosmographer López de Velasco, c. 1570
Population
Spanish families
Spanish Cities
Pueblos de indios
Indian tributaries
Confessing Indios
Repartimientos de
encomederos
Repartimientos of
the king
Blacks
Monasteries
Diocese of
México
Diocese of
TlaxcalaPuebla
Diocese of
Oaxaca
Diocese of
Michoacán
Captaincy
General of
Yucatán
Audiencia of
Nueva Galicia
TOTAL
2,794
9
400
2
420
4
1,000
7
300
4
1,500
8
6,414
34
247
336,000
739,000
186
200
215,000
66
350
96,000
82
330
44,000
25
200
60,000
130
150
20,000
1,477
771,000
54
543
60
60
68
69
-
50
307
-
1,000
-
-
-
-
1,000
90
30
-
-
10
-
130
Source: Juan López de Velasco, Geografía y descripción universal de las Indias, Madrid, Atlas, 1971.
23
Travels of Cieza de Leon
24
Paradigm IV: Paraguay
(Expansion in spite of epidemics)
• Frequent epidemics, high epidemic
mortality (young age structure);
• Very high fertility: Jesuits enforce early
and universal marriage, high fertility;
• Strong rebounds after epidemics and high
population growth in the interepidemic
intervals;
• Preservation of Guaranì communities from
dislocation, forced labor, enslavement
25
Jesuit Missions in South America
26
Jesuit’s 30 Missions of “Paraguay”(1750)
27
Population of Paraguay’s 30
Missions
Popolazione delle Missioni, XVII-XIX secolo
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1642 1649 1656 1663 1670 1677 1684 1691 1698 1705 1712 1719 1726 1733 1740 1747 1754 1761 1768 1775 1782 1789 1796 1803 1810
28