Transcript Native and immigrant fertility patterns in Greece: A comparative study based on aggregated census statistics and IPUMS microdata

Native and immigrant fertility patterns
in Greece: a comparative study based
on aggregated census statistics and
IPUMS micro-data
Cleon Tsimbos1, Georgia Verropoulou1 & Christos Bagavos2
1University
of Piraeus, Athens
2 Panteion University of Athens
Objectives of the study
1.
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3.
To examine fertility patterns and differentials
between native and immigrant populations in
Greece, with particular reference to Albanians
and Bulgarians, based on the 2001 census
To compare fertility and proportions of
childlessness by cohort between complete
census data and IPUMS micro-data (a 10%
sample)
To explore factors associated with fertility
differentials applying multivariate techniques
to IPUMS data sets
Data: the 2001 Greek Census
Data used in the analysis:
Special tabulations of census data, produced by the National
Statistical Service of Greece
Numbers of children ever born to women, by age and
citizenship of mother
Year of first and of second birth
Focus on:
 Fertility of women born 1950-1969
 Three citizenships: Greeks, Albanian and Bulgarian
(Albanian 57.5% & Bulgarians 4.6% of immigrants)
Data: the IPUMS micro-data
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A 10% sample of the census
Systematic sample of households
Smallest identifiable geographical unit:
municipalities with 20,000+ inhabitants
Includes all persons residing in private
households
In total 1,028,884 person records and 367,438
household records
For the first time micro-data available for Greece
Became available only recently
Figure 1. Mean number of children ever
born in 2001 by citizenship: birth cohorts
1950-1969 (census data)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
Albania
1.4
Greece
1.2
Bulgaria
1.0
0.8
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
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The figures are comparable only for women of
the same cohort
Women born in 1950-54 have completed their
fertility as they would be at least age 45 in 2001.
Also women born in 1955-59 would have nearly
completed their reproductive lives by 2001
Fertility is higher for Albanians for all cohorts
and lowest for Bulgarians
Marked decline in fertility of Albanians born
between 1950 and 1959 probably reflects a
genuine trend
Most of the observed fertility was realized in the
country of origin as the vast majority of
immigrants arrived in Greece since 1991
Figure 2. Cumulative cohort fertility for
first births by cohort-group and
citizenship: birth cohorts 1950-69
1950-54
1955-59
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
Albania
0.5
0.4
Albania
0.5
Greece
Greece
0.4
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
15
1960-64
1965-69
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
45
50
0.6
Albania
0.5
0.4
Albania
0.5
Greece
Greece
0.4
Bulgaria
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Bulgaria
0.0
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
15
20
25
30
35
40
•Albanian immigrants have the
highest cumulative first-birth
rates followed by native and
Bulgarian women for all
cohorts
•Women born in the 1950s
exhibit a fairly constant
propensity to become mothers,
irrespectively of citizenship
•Levels for Bulgarian women
born over the 1960s follow a
marked declining trend
•For all cohorts timing of first
births for Bulgarian women is
earlier than for other
citizenships
2 children
Figure 3. Cohort fertility for second and
third or higher order by citizenship: birth
cohorts 1950-1959
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Albania
0.4
Greece
0.3
Bulgaria
0.2
0.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
3 or more children
0.9
0.8
Albania
0.7
Greece
0.6
Bulgaria
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
•For all birth orders and cohorts,
cumulative fertility is, as expected,
highest for Albanians and lowest
for Bulgarians.
•The top figure (2nd birth order)
shows virtually unchanged
patterns for women born in the
1950s for all citizenships
•The bottom figure (3rd and higher
birth orders) shows a very marked
decrease (from 0.82 to 0.37) for
Albanian women
•Only slight decreases for Greek
and Bulgarian women
Table 1 Women by citizenship and year of birth
based on the 2001 Census and IPUMS data:
1950-1969 birth cohorts
IPUMS data
Greece Albania Bulgaria
2001 Census data
Greece Albania Bulgaria
a) Absolute numbers
1950-54
1955-59
1960-64
1965-69
30,656
32,553
31,831
33,027
710
1,101
1,443
1,702
220
220
265
233
317,234
336,405
336,663
352,211
7,753
11,846
15,849
18,342
2,507
2,710
2,486
2,678
1950-69
128,067
4,956
938
1,342,513
53,79
10,381
14.3
22.2
29.1
34.4
23.5
23.5
28.2
24.8
23.6
25.1
25.1
26.2
14.4
22.0
29.5
34.1
24.2
26.1
23.9
25.8
Total
100
100
100
100
Source: 2001 population census and IPUMS data
(https://international.ipums.org/international)
100
100
b) Percentages
1950-54
1955-59
1960-64
1965-69
23.9
25.4
24.9
25.8
Comments on Table 1
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IPUMS proposes the use of equal weights (=10) for all
Greek micro-data.
Taking this into account, the IPUMS weighted data would
total 1,280,670 Greek, 49,560 Albanian and 9,380
Bulgarian women.
Compared to the census enumeration, these figures show an
undercount of 5%, 8% and 10% for the Greek, Albanian
and Bulgarian women, respectively.
For the five-year cohort groups, the difference ranges from
3% to 6% for Greek women, from 7% to 9% for Albanians
and from 6% to 19% for Bulgarians.
In all cases, the IPUMS data tend to underestimate the
census counts, apart from the 1960-64 cohort of Bulgarian
women.
This might indicate a need for computing appropriate
weights for the smaller population sub-groups.
Figure 4 Cohort fertility by citizenship :
1950-1969 birth cohort groups
Figure 1. Cohort Fertility (2001Census vs IPUMS data), 1950-1969 cohort groups
2,2
2
Greek - 2001 Census
1,93
1,95
1,88
Greek - IPUMS
1,92
1,76
1,8
1,78
1,6
1,40
1,43
1,4
1,2
1
1950-54
2,6
2,45
1955-59
1960-64
1965-69
2,52
2,4
2,22
Albanian -2001 Census
2,24
Albanian - IPUMS
2,2
1,96
2
1,93
1,8
1,66
1,64
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
1950-54
1955-59
1,9
1960-64
1,81
Bulgarian - 2001 Census
1,8
1,7
1965-69
1,67
1,65
Bulgarian - IPUMS
1,64
1,6
1,47
1,5
1,50
1,4
1,3
1,19
1,2
1,15
1,1
1
1950-54
1955-59
1960-64
1965-69
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Comments on Figure 4:
The mean numbers of children ever born for all
cohorts of Greek and Albanian women are fairly
similar for both data sources, showing a
decreasing trend for successive cohorts
For Bulgarians there is a discrepancy for the
1955-59 birth cohort of women!!
Figure 5 Percentage childless by citizenship:
1950-1969 birth cohort groups
Figure 2. Childlessness (%), (2001Census vs IPUMS data), 1950-1969 cohort groups
0,35
0,3
28,0%
Greek - 2001 Census
Greek - IPUMS
0,25
26,6%
0,2
0,15
16,1%
12,3%
11,6%
15,1%
0,1
11,2%
10,7%
0,05
0
1950-54
1955-59
1960-64
0,14
12,5%
Albanian -2001 Census
0,12
12,1%
Albanian - IPUMS
9,3%
0,1
7,8%
0,08
1965-69
6,8%
0,06
8,7%
7,1%
4,8%
0,04
0,02
0
1950-54
1955-59
1960-64
1965-69
0,4
36,9%
32,9%
0,35
Bulgarian - 2001 Census
0,3
Bulgarian - IPUMS
24,2%
0,25
0,2
16,5%
23,4%
18,0%
15,0%
0,15
14,1%
0,1
0,05
0
1950-54
1955-59
1960-64
1965-69
Comments on Figure 5:
•Proportions of childless women are lowest for
Albanian women and highest for Bulgarian, for all
cohorts, confirmed from both data sources
•An increasing tendency for women of all
ethnicities to remain childless, between successive
cohort-groups
•Again some discrepancies between census and
IPUMS data, particularly for Bulgarian women
born over 1955-59
•Overall, IPUMS data tend to underestimate
proportions of childless women
Assessing associations based on IPUMS microdata: Differentials by educational attainment
for selected employment statuses
Methods: Logistic regression models.
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– Model 1: having at least one child in comparison to being
childless
– Model 2: having at least two children in comparison to having
only one
– Model 3: having at least three children in comparison to having
only two
All models control for year of birth of women (age effects).
Independent variable: educational attainment, in three categories:
– 0-6 years of schooling (at the most primary education)
– 7-12 years (any secondary)
– 13 years or more (any post-secondary qualification)
Model 1: Odds Ratios showing associations of
educational attainment with having at least one
child by employment status and citizenship
(1950-69 cohorts)
All women
Currently employed
Housewives
Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria
Predictor
Yrs in education
0-6 yrs (ref category)
7-12 yrs
0.758*** 1.484*** 1.341
13+ yrs
0.386*** 0.978 1.386
N
128067 4956
938
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
0.437*** 1.369** 1.125
0.257*** 0.776 0.940
68354 2593
694
1.121*** 1.367
0.857*** 1.257
48309 2030
2.200*
4.790**
173
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Comments on Model 1:
For Greek women, overall: higher educational
attainment seems to have a negative relationship with
progression from childlessness to first birth.
The odds ratios indicate pronounced effects among
currently employed women.
Among Greek housewives with 7-12 yrs of schooling,
odds of progressing to a first birth seem more
favourable than among their less educated
counterparts.
For Albanian and Bulgarian women, overall, more
years of education seem to increase chances of a first
birth.
Associations are not significant for currently employed
Bulgarian women; by contrast, they are very
pronounced and significant among housewives.
Model 2: Odds Ratios showing associations of
educational attainment with having at least two
children compared to mothers with one child, by
employment status and citizenship (1950-69
cohorts)
All women
Currently employed
Housewives
Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria
Yrs in education
0-6 yrs (ref category)
7-12 yrs
0.546*** 0.712*** 0.448*** 0.452*** 0.544*** 0.441*** 0.653*** 0.877 0.594
13+ yrs
0.351*** 0.412*** 0.277*** 0.324*** 0.288*** 0.246*** 0.417*** 0.573*** 0.403
N
107581 4513
726
55533 2328
544
43996 1900
128
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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Comments on Model 2:
Odds ratios indicate that for all women,
independently of citizenship, higher educational
attainment is related to lower chances of having
a second child, among mothers who already have
one.
This relationship seems to have the steepest
gradient for Bulgarian women while for Greek
women and, in particular for Albanians, it is
somewhat flatter.
Though chances of progression to a second birth
are lower for currently employed women for all
citizenships, differentiation compared to
housewives is rather small
Model 3: Odds Ratios showing associations of
educational attainment with having at least
three children compared to mothers with two
children, by employment status and citizenship
(1950-69 cohorts)
All women
Currently employed
Housewives
Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria Greece Albania Bulgaria
Yrs in education
0-6 yrs (ref category)
7-12 yrs
0.488*** 0.473*** 0.448*** 0.475*** 0.548*** 0.422*** 0.507*** 0.465*** 0.336*
13+ yrs
0.356*** 0.272*** 0.170*** 0.346*** 0.353*** 0.134*** 0.440*** 0.209*** 0.106**
N
86530 3703 529
43302 1895 410
37112 1572 84
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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Comments on Model 3:
Higher educational attainment has a negative
association with chances of progression to a third
birth and births of higher order for all women,
independently of citizenship.
Differentiation between citizenships is minimal.
Similarly, differentiation between currently
employed women and housewives is limited.
In comparison to the odds ratios for Model 2, the
greatest difference can be observed for Albanian
women
Conclusions - Discussion
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Albanians have the highest fertility and constitute a large ethnic
group. Hence, it is expected that their fertility may have a strong
impact on period rates in Greece. However, as their fertility declines
for successive cohorts, effects will decrease over time
Educational attainment has differential associations with the decision
of native and immigrant women to become mothers
For Greek women, more years in education reduce chances of
progression to a first birth (the only exception being housewives with
secondary education) and, more substantially, chances of a second
birth and births of higher order
Higher educational attainment has also a negative association with
progression to second and higher birth orders for immigrant women
BUT seems positive for having a first birth
It would be of interest to explore why associations differ between
ethnic groups!!
IPUMS micro-data are very useful for identifying and exploring such
associations
Selected References

Verropoulou G, Bagavos C and C Tsimbos (2007) Migrant
and Non-Migrant Fertility in Greece: Results Based on the
2001 Population Census. Migration Letters, 4(2):147-158.

Bagavos C, Tsimbos C and G Verropoulou. (2008). Native
and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: A Cohort
Approach. European Journal of Population, 24(4):245-263
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Tsimbos C, Verropoulou G and C Bagavos. (2008) Native
and Migrant Fertility Patterns in Greece: An Approach
Based on IPUMS Microdata and Aggregated Census Data
(1950-1969 cohorts). IPUMS Workshop: Panteion
University of Social and Political Sciences, Athens, March
18, 20, (on line: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/ipumseurope/)