Transcript The dynamics of Britain's ethnic populations: the roles of natural change and net migration in producing the ethnic mosaic.

The dynamics of Britain’s
ethnic group populations:
the roles of natural change
and net migration in
producing the ethnic mosaic
Nissa Finney and Ludi Simpson
www.ccsr.ac.uk
BSPS Annual Conference
St. Andrews, 11-13th September 2007
www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/mrpd
Political and academic context
• Social and political concern
• Assumptions about ‘white flight’ and non-white
‘self-segregation’
• Renewed academic interest in ethnic
geographies and their measurement (e.g. Peach
1996, Simpson 2005, 2007, Voas and Williamson
2000, Poulsen et al 2005)
• Some work on migration and dispersal (e.g. Ellis
& Goodwin-White 2006, Frey 2006, Musterd &
de Vos 2007, Stillwell 2005, Simpson 2007)
Migration, Race and Population
Dynamics
Population change = (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)
•
•
•
•
Net migration and natural change
District and Ward scales
8 ethnic groups, age and sex
Change over time (1991-2001)
National population dynamics
Growth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and
Other populations in GB is more through natural growth
than immigration, 1991-2001
net migration
Other
Chinese
natural change
Bangladeshi
Pakistani
Indian
African
Caribbean
White
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
-20.00
Natural Change 1991 to 2001 as % of 1991 population
Net Migration 1991 to 2001 as % of 1991 population
Source:
MRPD
estimates
Age structure of net migration, GB, 91-01
Chinese and African immigration
Ethnic group - 8
categories
White
Caribbean
African
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Chinese
Other
250.00
Sum NetMigrationpc
200.00
150.00
Net
migration
as % of
1991 pop
Caribbean
emigration
100.00
50.00
Caribbean,
Indian,
Pakistani,
Bangladeshi
emigration
0.00
-50.00
0
20
40
60
Age in 2001 (0,1,2...89,90+)
80
100
In
ne
rL
on
O
do
ut
n
er
Pr
in
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ci p
nd
al
on
M
O
et
th
.C
er
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iti e
et
s
.D
i st
ric
La
ts
rg
e
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tie
Sm
s
all
In
Ci
du
tie
st
s
ria
l
Ar
Re
ea
so
Ne
s
rt,
w
Po
To
rt
wn
&
s
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ti r
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i xe
em
i xe
d
d
en
U
Ur
rb
t
an
ba
-R
nRu
ur
al
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l-R
em
M
ot
M
ai
e
ai
n
ly
nly
Ru
Ru
ra
ra
l
l-R
em
ot
e
Net migraiton rate
Counterurbanisation
Net migration rate for types of district for white and non-white
groups, 2000-2001, GB
1.5
1
0.5
0
White
-0.5
Non-white
-1
-1.5
-2
District type
Source: Census 2001 SMS, for districts in GB
Dispersal
Balance of migration,
% of population
Group concentrations
Group
White
Indian
Pakistani, Bangladeshi and
Other South Asian
-0.40
-1.23
-0.34
-0.79
Chinese
-0.21
-1.23
Black
-1.65
0.13
Source: Census 2001, for districts in GB
White & Indian net migration, 91-01
Net migration V natural change,
White and Bangladeshi
Migration and natural change:
demographic hypotheses
Growth in geographical clusters
•
Pioneer and chain immigration: settlement areas
•
Few deaths compared to births: natural growth becomes
greater than immigration
Dispersal
•
Lack of housing creates pressure to disperse from
settlement areas
•
Migration gives spatial form to social stratification,
economically more successful move further to achieve
better housing
•
Internal migration maintains clusters of ethnically similar
population
Correlations between net
migration and natural change
White
-0.10
African
0.89
Caribbean
-0.45
Pakistani
0.83
Indian
-0.02
Bangladeshi
0.88
Chinese
0.68
Other
0.57
Districts of GB,
1991-2001
Local examples
Bradford
60
40
20
hi
n
C
O
th
er
es
e
i
sh
ad
e
Ba
ng
l
kis
ta
ni
ia
n
Pa
In
d
an
Af
ric
n
be
a
te
ar
ib
-40
W
hi
-20
C
0
Oldham
Oldham
60
60
40
40
20
20
W
h it
e
Ca
ri
bb
ea
n
Af
r ic
an
In
di a
n
P
ak
i st
an
B
an
i
gl a
de
sh
i
C
hi n
es
e
Ot
he
r
00
-20
-20
-40
-40
Net Migration
• Natural growth and
dispersal for Indian,
Bangladeshi, Chinese
• Population loss due to
migration for White and
Caribbean
• Growth due to natural
change and migration for
Pakistani, African and Other
…and in Oldham for
Bangladeshi
Natural Change
Swansea
40
20
-40
O
th
er
-20
In
di
an
Pa
kis
ta
Ba
ni
ng
la
de
sh
i
Ch
in
es
e
W
hi
te
Ca
rib
be
an
Af
r ic
an
0
• Natural growth and
dispersal for all nonWhite groups except
Pakistani
-60
Fife
200
150
100
50
Net Migration
C
O
th
er
hi
n
es
e
sh
i
ad
e
ng
l
Ba
Pa
kis
ta
ni
ia
n
In
d
an
Af
ric
n
be
a
ar
ib
C
W
hi
-50
te
0
• Population growth due
to migration and
natural change for all
non-White groups
except Bangladeshi
Natural Change
Summary
• Components of changes estimate are a rich source
• Nationally, natural growth has a greater impact than
migration for Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani,
Bangladeshi and Other groups
• There is great variation not only between groups but
between areas
• Patterns can be explained by the demographic
maturity of migrant groups and their geographical
distribution
• Local examples illustrate complexities of processes of
population change but provide initial evidence for
processes of natural growth and dispersal from urban
and settlement areas, and the creation of new
clusters in more remote areas
Conclusions
Geographies of ethnicity in Britain,
including clustering of non-white groups,
can be explained through a combination of
natural change and dispersal
We must not jump to conclusions about
divisive motivations for migration