Transcript How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland?

How many Eastern Europeans have
moved to Northern Ireland?
BSPS Conference September 2007
Dr David Marshall
NISRA
How many Eastern Europeans
have moved to Northern Ireland?
How many Eastern Europeans
have moved to Northern Ireland?
Outline what we do know
&
Data in population estimates
UN Definition: Usually resident long-term migrant
“A person who moves to a country other than that of
his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year
(12 months), so that the country of destination
effectively becomes his or her new country of usual
residence.” UN (1998)
- In use across European Union
- “Usually resident” population
A8: Eastern European countries that joined
European Union in May 2004
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
1. In and out-migration sources
2. Migration estimates for NI
3. Conclusions
Births to Mothers Born outside Northern Ireland
-
Registering births in NI, mother supplies
information on her country of birth
-
New NI mothers born outside the UK & Ireland – 700
in 2001 up to 1,450 in 2006 (projected 1,700 in 2007)
-
A8 mothers – 2 births in 1997 – 650 (projected)
births in 2007
Births registered in NI
Registration Year
Mother’s Country of
Birth
Northern Ireland
Rest of UK
Republic of Ireland
A8 Countries
Other Countries /
Unknown
All Births
2001
…
2004
2005
2006
2007 (JanJun)
18,994
…
19,059
19,039
19,611
10,166
1,553
…
1,404
1,460
1,475
731
724
…
689
706
736
375
12
…
34
110
390
321
679
…
1,132
1013
1,060
545
21,962 …
22,318
22,328
23,272
12,138
Annual School Census
–
Annual School Census - English as an additional
language (October 2006)
–
1.5% or nearly 2,400 “primary” school children have
English as an additional language
–
A8 languages: c0.7% - 1,100 “primary” schoolchildren (Polish most popular)
–
School Census not a measure of migration
Worker Registration Scheme
–
Set up by UK Government (Home Office)
–
A8 nationals required to register
–
May 2004 - March 2007
UK: 605k people
NI:
24k (3.9%)
–
WRS: 50% in temporary employment (short-term)
–
Covers working age population - no need to
deregister
NI WRS Registrations by quarter (May 2004 - March 2007)
3,000
NI WRS Registrations
2,500
2004 (part)
Total: 3,655
2,000
1,500
2006 Total: 8,955
1,000
2005 Total: 8,845
500
0
May –
Jun
2004
Jul –
Sep
2004
Oct –
Dec
2004
Jan –
Mar
2005
Apr –
Jun
2005
Jul –
Sep
2005
Oct –
Dec
2005
Jan –
Mar
2006
Apr –
Jun
2006
Year and Quarter of Registration
Jul –
Sep
2006
Oct –
Dec
2006
Jan –
Mar
2007
NI WRS Registrations by local authority of employment per 1,000
resident population (May 2004 – March 2006)
NI Worker Registration Scheme
– Numerically high in Belfast, Mid-Ulster
– Mid-Ulster rate effect
– Lithuanian effect in Northern Ireland (20% of
NI registrations – 10% in UK )
New registrations with a family doctor – health cards
-
Central Services Agency record (re)registrations
with family doctors
-
Form available in 7 languages (English,
Portuguese, Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Russian
and Czech)
-
Non-UK registrations rising from 7,200 in 2003 to
13,600 in 2005 and again to 18,000 in 2006
-
Numerically highest in Belfast, Mid-Ulster LGDs
New Health Card Registrations from outside UK by
quarter of application (2003 - 2006)
6,000
New Health Card Registrations
from outside UK
5,000
2003 Total: 7,230
2004 Total: 8,060
4,000
3,000
2006 Total: 18,118
2,000
2005 Total: 13,607
1,000
0
Jan Mar
2003
Jul Sep
2003
Jan Mar
2004
Jul Sep
2004
Jan Mar
2005
Jul Sep
2005
Year and Quarter of Application
Jan Mar
2006
Jul Sep
2006
Deregistrations from a family doctor list
-
Central Services Agency record deregistration
from family doctor list
-
Deregistrations rising from 4,400 in 2003 to 5,600
in 2006
-
Incomplete data (evidence from 1990s around 1/3
of people are not deregistered)
Migration estimates for NI
UN Definition: Usually resident long-term migrant
“A person who moves to a country other than that of
his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year
(12 months), so that the country of destination
effectively becomes his or her new country of usual
residence.”
2001 Census “Country of Birth”
Country of Birth
Number
Percentage
Northern Ireland
1,534,268
91.0%
England
61,609
3.7%
Scotland
16,772
1.0%
Wales
3,008
0.2%
Republic of Ireland
39,051
2.3%
Other EU countries
10,355
0.6%
Elsewhere
20,204
1.2%
1,685,267
100.0%
All persons
NI methodology to estimate migration
IPS not used in NI population estimates
- NI ports not included
- Ireland / Northern Ireland
- Small sample size for NI
Migration into NI: GP registrations
– Small adjustment made for young adult males
Migration out of NI:
– GP registrations in GB (UK figures agreed)
– CSO Ireland Household Survey for RoI
– GP deregistrations for elsewhere
– Elsewhere figures adjusted for incompleteness
and young adult males
Summary of NI picture
– 1970s/1980s - NI exporter of people (“The
Troubles”)
– 1990s – migration in balance
•
•
20,000 in (13,000 from GB, 2,000 RoI, 5,000 Rest
of World)
20,000 out (13,000 to GB, 7,000 Rest of World)
– Post- 2001 Increasing levels of migration
Background: Estimates of Net Migration in
Northern Ireland (1973/4-2005/6)
10,000
Population Gain
8,000
EU Expansion
4,000
2,000
0
The “Troubles”
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
Population Loss
-12,000
2005-2006
2001-2002
1997-1998
1993-1994
Year
1989-1990
1985-1986
1981-1982
1977-1978
-14,000
1973-1974
Net Migration Level
6,000
Household Survey: “Has anyone left your household?”
Combined 2005
Survey Results
Combined 2006
Survey Results
2,276
3,727
No. where someone left in last
year
139
191
Perc.
6%
5%
Number of people who left
167
228
Went elsewhere in Northern
Ireland
130
169
19
33
7
8
11
18
Households
Households surveyed
People
Went to Great Britain
Went to Republic of Ireland
Went to outside UK and
Ireland/Unknown
Out-migration
(Partial)
Research report
Data published in two NISRA reports
July 2006 and July 2007
see www.nisra.gov.uk/demography
Selection of some of the
research/sources outlined – NINos,
WP data ….
Other research
- National Insurance Numbers
falling out of use
- Proposed survey of migrants
(attitudes/intentions etc…)
Conclusion
- NI migration levels have increased
- EU expansion (big impact)
- 2006 larger migration estimates
- New developments on out-migration
How many Eastern Europeans have
moved to Northern Ireland?
BSPS Conference September 2007
Dr David Marshall
NISRA