Transcript Update on taking forward the recommendations of the National Statistics Quality Review on International Migration Estimates

National Statistics Quality Review on
International Migration Estimates
Update on taking forward the recommendations of the review
Emma Wright & Giles Horsfield
Population and Demography Division
Office for National Statistics
Overview
● Estimates of Total International Migration
– Data Sources & Methodology
– Trends
● National Statistics Quality Review
– Recommendations
● Work and results to date
● Future plans & further information
Estimates of Total International Migration
● ONS produces estimates of Total International
Migration (TIM) between the UK and the rest of
the world:
● An international migrant is defined as a person
who changes his or her country of usual
residence for a period of at least a year
● Estimates of both inflows (immigration) and
outflows (emigration)
Data Sources & Methodology
● International Passenger Survey (IPS)
– Continuous voluntary sample survey covering
principle air, sea & Channel Tunnel routes
– based on intentions
– does not cover all migration
● Estimates from IPS are adjusted for:
– Switchers (those whose intentions change)
– Flows between the UK & Irish Republic (Irish CSO)
– Asylum seekers & their dependants (Home Office)
● TIM estimates have been produced since 1991 earlier estimates were derived from the IPS only.
Trends in Total International Migration
Thousands of migrants
600
500
400
Net gain
Net gain
300
200
100
Net loss
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Inflow
Outflow
National Statistics Quality Review
● National Statistics Quality Review on
international migration, commissioned before
2001 Census results were released
● Joint ONS and HO review
● Review Board
– representatives from ONS, HO, OGDs, academia
● Aim of the review
“ to make recommendations for continuation of,
and changes to, the current data, methods and
outputs of UK international migration statistics ”
Review Recommendations
● Final Report published September 2003
● Main recommendations
– Development of better estimates of total migration
flows
– Use of existing survey and admin data sources
for UK geographical distribution of migration
– Development of survey and admin sources on
persons subject to immigration control
– Build need for data on international migration into
new admin data sources
● Implementation Plan published January 2004
Work & results to date (1)
International Passenger Survey:
● New questions introduced in Jan 2004 on:
– intended versus actual length of stay
– short-term versus long-term migrants
● Further questions piloted for 2005
– level of uncertainty on destination in the UK
Work & results to date (2)
● Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with Census
and Labour Force Survey (immigrants):
– Census/LFS question on place of usual residence
1 year ago
– National totals
– Age/sex comparisons
– Regional comparisons
International migration to the UK
Year to April/Spring 2001: LFS, IPS, Census; calendar year 2001: TIM
International Total
Census
Passenger
International
Survey
Migration
Labour
Force
Survey
380.8
297.7
479.6
381.3
Age distribution of in-migrants to England and Wales in
the IPS and the 2001 Census: persons
Year to April 2001
0.07
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
Age (years)
Census
IPS
90
+
84
78
72
66
60
54
48
42
36
30
24
18
12
6
0
0
Proportion of Inflow
0.06
Proportion of UK migrant inflows by region
Year to April/Spring 2001
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
South West
South East
London
Eastern
West Midlands
East Midlands
Yorkshire & Humberside
North West
North East
0.00
0.05
0.10
IPS
0.15
LFS
0.20
0.25
CENSUS
0.30
0.35
0.40
London: proportion of total UK in-migration,
1994-2002
LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years
Proportion of Uk inflow
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
LFS
TIM
IPS
2000
2001
2002
Scotland: proportion of total UK in-migration, 1994-2002
LFS year to Spring; IPS and TIM previous calendar years
Proportion of UK inflow
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
LFS
1998
TIM
1999
IPS
2000
2001
2002
Work & results to date (3)
● Comparison of IPS/TIM estimates with NHS
register sources (immigrants and emigrants):
– persons registering (de-registering) with the NHS
whose previous (next) place of usual residence is
overseas
– regional comparisons
– potential for local authority breakdowns
International migration to/from England
and Wales, 2002
Totals
(thousands)
In-migration
Out-migration
National
Health
Service
Central
Register
International
Passenger
Survey
Total
International
Migration
589.8
365.6
485.8
70.6
276.1
323.7
Proportional England and Wales migrant inflows: TIM and IPS
compared to NHSCR, 2002
South West
South East
London
East
West Midlands
East Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humberside
North West
North East
Wales
0
0.05
0.1
TIM
0.15
NHSCR
0.2
IPS
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
Proportional England and Wales migrant outflows: TIM and IPS
compared to NHSCR, 2002
South West
South East
London
East
West Midlands
East Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humberside
North West
North East
Wales
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
TIM
0.2
0.25
NHSCR
0.3
IPS
0.35
0.4
0.45
Work & results to date (4)
● Comparison of IPS/TIM emigrant estimates with
receiving country immigrant statistics:
– Difficulty in making such comparisons is well
documented
– Comparisons will focus first on EU 15, Australia,
New Zealand, USA, Canada, South Africa
– So far, 13 of these 20 countries, have agreed to
take part in the study
Work & results to date (5)
● Development of new data sources requirements for migration statistics fed into:
– 2011 Census
– Continuous Population Survey
– Citizen’s Information Project
Home Office research
● Improved combining of IPS and HO data - investigation
underway of coverage of groups subject to immigration
control in IPS - asylum seekers, visitor switchers
● Comparison of statistics on persons subject to
immigration control and landing card data with IPS data
on non-EU immigrants
● Research into estimating unauthorised migrant stocks
and flows
● Development of longitudinal survey of immigrants
● Feeding migration statistics requirements into
development of enhanced arrival and departure
recording systems and ID cards
Future Plans
● Research work on IPS - non-response,
emigration filter shifts, new questions, etc
● Further work on use of LFS and NHSCR data to
aid distribution of immigrants geographically
● Further comparisons of emigrant estimates with
overseas immigrant estimates
● Investigation of administrative sources (e.g.
DWP, DVLA)
● Research into methods for combining data
sources (ONS Methods Group)
Further information
● Quality review report and Implementation Plan
available on National Statistics website:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/methods_quality/
quality_review/population.asp
● Annual Reference Volume
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/
theme_population/MN_no_29_v3.pdf
● Any further queries:
[email protected]
[email protected]