Transcript Final Research Presentation

Using an Infrastructure Planning
Support System to quantify climate
change
Presentation by: Michael Tarbert
Environmental Sustainability REU
Advisor: Dr. Chinowsky
Mentor: Amy Schweikert
Presentation Outline
• Project Background
• Methodology
• Results
• Conclusions
• Summary
ICliCS, IPSS, Research Importance
PROJECT BACKGROUND
Background
• ICliCS researches the immediate and far reaching
effects of climate, both quantitatively and
qualitatively on basic infrastructure.
• Contracts with International organizations and
governments.
Background: Infrastructure
• Why is infrastructure important?
– Key to economic growth.
– Important for social growth, especially in developing
countries.
– Indicator for all
8 Millennium
Development goals
(African Union, 2005)
Background: Importance
• Why is climate change
important to infrastructure?
– First, we must accept climate change is currently
happening, and will continue to occur.
– Second, we must understand the importance of
Infrastructure and transportation networks to the
human population.
– Third, infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of
climate change.
– This study focuses on the road transportation
Background: IPSS
• Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS)
– Program that utilizes global climate modeling
predictions through the year 2100 to produce
quantitative data
– Monetary costs to adapt, and not to adapt to climate
change (Produce annual costs)
• Study uses IPSS to:
– quantify the impacts climate change (temperature
and precipitation) on road infrastructure.
– Assist policymakers to determine future actions.
Background: Purpose
• The purpose of this study is to update a former
study- ‘Climate change: comparative impact on
developing and developed countries’ (Chinowsky
et al. 2011)
• Climate change impacts on road infrastructure in
10 different countries, ranging from Lower to
Upper income levels.
– Show why adapting is necessary
– Show why developing countries are especially in
danger!
Background: 10 Countries
Country
World Bank income
level
Total KM Road
Ethiopia
Cameroon
The Philippines
Bolivia
Croatia
Venezuela
Sweden
New Zealand
Japan
Italy
Lower
Lower-middle
Lower-middle
Lower-middle
Upper-middle
Upper-middle
High
High
High
High
36 469
50 000
204 964
62 479
29 038
96 145
427 035
93 748
1 196 999
487 815
Climate Modeling, Road Impacts
METHODOLOGY
Methodology: Climate Modeling
• Global Circulation Models (GCM’s)
– 54 IPCC approved models
– Future climate predictions
• GIS as a tool using Climate
Research Units (CRU) (grid structure)
• Climate data (GCM’s) applied to road inventory
by CRU grid.
Methodology: Road Impacts
• IPSS looks for stress factors
– Precipitation or temperature threshold is exceeded,
inducing extra maintenance cost.
• Left with decision: To adapt, or not to adapt…
– Unpaved  Gravel
– Gravel  Update drainage methods
– Paved  Update Binder types
• ***No adapt incurs increased maintenance costs
Median/Max costs, Opportunity Cost, Risk Analysis
RESULTS
Results: determining Max/Median
Finding Median and Maximum Costs by GCM
Median Avg Annual Cost by Decade (USD Million)- Boliva
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
Adapt Cost
$10.00
No Adapt Cost
$5.00
$2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Maximum Avg Annual Cost by Decade (USD Million)Bolivia
$80.00
$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
Adapt Cost
$40.00
No Adapt Cost
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Median Avg Annual Cost by Decade (USD Million)- Japan
$2,500.00
$2,000.00
Adapt Cost
No Adapt Cost
$1,500.00
$1,000.00
$500.00
$2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Maximum Avg Annual Cost by Decade (USD Million)Japan
$4,000.00
$3,500.00
$3,000.00
$2,500.00
Adapt Cost
$2,000.00
No Adapt Cost
$1,500.00
$1,000.00
$500.00
$2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Results: Opportunity Cost
• Universal evaluation method developed by ICliCS
• OCx=(CCx⁄SRCx)/PRx
– X- country of interest
– OC- Opportunity Cost (%)
– CC- Total cost of climate change
– SRC- cost to construct 1 km of secondary paved road
– PR- Countries current paved road stock
• Shows the amount of paved road inventory a
country could have constructed through 2100
Results: Opportunity Cost
Country
Opportunity Cost
Bolivia
334%
Ethiopia
407%
Cameroon
139%
Croatia
196%
The Philippines
294%
Venezuela
94%
Sweden
74%
New Zealand
124%
Japan
45%
Italy
66%
Results: Risk Analysis
% of GCMs in range
Sweden Roads Impact - Adapt, 2050 Decade
Climate Average Annual Cost
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
$20
$39
$59
$78
$98
$117
Damage Cost due to Climate Change ($ Million)
$137
Results: Risk Analysis
Sweden Roads Impact - No Adapt, 2050 Decade
Climate Average Annual Cost
0.45
% of GCMs in range
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
$61
$122
$183
$243
$304
$365
Damage Cost due to Climate Change ($ Million)
$426
Results: Risk Analysis
Sweden Roads Impact - No Adapt, 2050
Decade
Climate Average Annual Cost
0.45
0.45
0.4
0.4
0.35
0.35
0.3
% of GCMs in range
% of GCMs in range
Sweden Roads Impact - Adapt, 2050
Decade
Climate Average Annual Cost
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
$20 $39 $59 $78 $98 $117 $137
Damage Cost due to Climate Change ($
Million)
0
$61 $122 $183 $243 $304 $365 $426
Damage Cost due to Climate Change ($ Million)
Country
Total Max Adapt
Total Median
Adapt
Total Max No
Adapt
Total Median No
Adapt
Bolivia
$2 194.14
$2 001.76
$4 674.41
$2 326.51
Ethiopia
$2 667.34
$2 440.46
$7 399.14
$3 311.95
Cameroon
$1 046.20
$ 934.04
$2 137.61
$1 210.96
Croatia
$7 623.94
$9 849.39
$20 839.10
$14 132.10
The Philippines
$8 764.88
$7 560.49
$12 960.39
$7 331.24
Venezuela
$4 532.63
$4 425.14
$15 908.71
$13 826.84
Sweden
$15 107.94
$4 760.72
$46 985.40
$9 604.85
New Zealand
$11 366.66
$8 120.04
$26 490.70
$26 409.00
Japan
$63 667.70
$52 250.80
$188 752.
$115 021.
Italy
$39,400.30
$34,477.20
$130,281.9
$138,006.4
Adapting, Developing Countries, Future Work
CONCLUSIONS
Conclusions
• Adapting road infrastructure is beneficial
– It makes ‘cents’
– Positive social implications
– Assists in meeting MDG
Conclusions
• Developing countries incur the most cost
– Yet, have the least amount of resources to adapt let alone
expand infrastructure
– IPSS is a tool that can be used to formulate infrastructure
plans and mitigate climate change impacts
Conclusions: Future Work
• Sustainable construction practices
• More in-depth country detail- accuracy
• Including a growth function for road stock
– More realistic approach
Questions?