Transcript Demographics of Minnesota's Economic Outlook

Demographics Of
Minnesota’s Economic
Outlook
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
February 2008
Minnesota’s Economic Demography
In The Short Run
• In the short run, economics dominates
demographics
• Slow job growth this decade has slowed
migration, and therefore population growth
1990-97 Minnesota Added 312,000
2000-07 Minnesota Added 278,000
International
Migration
2000-07
1990-97
Domestic Migration
00
0
30
0,
00
0
25
0,
00
0
20
0,
00
0
15
0,
00
0
10
0,
0
00
50
,0
-5
0,
0
00
Natural Increase
Seven Year Change
Census Bureau estimate. Minnesota averaged 1.18% annual growth in the 90s, compared with 0.79%
To date In the 00s . The US is growing at 1% per year
Minnesota’s Economic Demography
In The Mid-Term—2008-2013
• Short run economics begins to merge with
long run demographics
• High school graduates will peak in a year
• Retirements may increase sharply this
year
Competition For The Future
Workforce Will Increase
14%
13.0%
Percent Change 18-24
12%
10%
8%
US
Mn
6.8%
6%
4.5%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-1.2%
-4%
-1.6%
-2.2%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-6%
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
2015-20
Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in
Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
Worked Within Past 5 years
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
7/05 to
7/06
7/06 to
7/07
7/07 to
7/08
7/08 to
7/09
7/09 to
7/10
Year Turning Age 62
2005 ACS
7/10 to
7/11
7/11 to
7/12
Minnesota’s Economic Demography
In The Long Run
• Minnesota will grow, but some areas will
•
•
•
•
continue to decline
Housing market may see changes
Retirements will increase, even if initially
delayed
Workforce growth will depend increasingly
on migration and immigration
Whether the slower growth affects
economic growth depends on productivity
Childless Couples And 1-person
Households Projected To Grow
Other Households
24,000
Living Alone, 55+
77,800
Living Alone Under
55
6,400
Married No Kids, 55+
127,700
Married No Kids,
under 55
-7,200
Single Parents
Married with Kids
29,000
-24,500
Projected change, 2005 to 2015
Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
Migration Will Be An Increasingly
Important Component To The Slowing
Labor Force Growth
Net Labor Force Growth
500,000
400,000
Total
Natural
Part Rate
Migration
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
-100,000
2000-10
State Demographer projection revised 2007
2010-20
2020-30
Thoughts On Economic Theory
Economic growth depends on
Growth in the workforce
Growth in productivity per worker
Productivity per worker depends on
Technology and machines
Public infrastructure
Knowledge, skills, training and education