Situation Analysis: Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common Understanding of Your Project
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Situation Analysis Using Conceptual Models to Develop a Common Understanding of Your Project ** Draft Presentation for Testing Purposes ** Version: 18 December 2002 This presentation is based on materials that were initially developed by Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy and then modified through joint work. © 2002 Foundations of Success and The Nature Conservancy The Enhanced Five-S Framework Systems • Focal Targets • Rigorous Viability Stresses & Sources • Critical Threats • Situation Analysis Implement & Monitor Analyze & Communicate Adapt and Learn Success • Indicators & Monitoring • Summary Measures Strategies • Goal & Objectives • Strategic Actions & Tasks Why Do We Need a Common Understanding of Our Project? Members of a project team have: Potentially different goals and objectives Lack of understanding of characteristics of targets Varying assumptions about what affects targets Varying knowledge about leverage opportunities Inconsistent use of terms What Did We Do Before? The current “Five-S Approach” helps practitioners to assess the situation at the site. In particular, it: Specifies stresses that affect targets Identifies sources of stress Why are Improvements Needed? The current “Five-S” system does not consistently: Specify assumptions regarding chains of factors affecting targets Identify the ultimate threats driving the system Present a simple yet comprehensive picture of the situation at the project site that can be shared with partners Situation Analysis a. Identify threats and other factors affecting targets. b. Link targets, threats, and other factors in a chain of causation and/or conceptual model. c. Prioritize the threats you will address. What is a Conceptual Model? A diagram of a set of relationships between certain factors and the targets. A good conceptual model: 1. Presents a picture of the situation at the project site 2. Shows assumed linkages between factors 3. Shows both direct and indirect threats 4. Presents only relevant factors 5. Is based on sound information 6. Results from a team effort Biodiversity in Conservation Area 1. Presents a Picture of the Situation at the Project Site Consrv Target Action Factor Relationship Initial Conceptual Model: Consrv Target Consrv Target Biodiversity in Conservation Area Situation at Site Prior to the Project Initial Conceptual Model: Situation at Site Prior to the Project Factor Factor Factor Factor Consrv Target Consrv Target Factor Biodiversity in Conservation Area Factor Project Conceptual Model: How Project Will Change Situation Action Threat Obj Factor Factor Consrv Target Viability Obj Action Threat Obj Goal Factor Factor Biodiversity in Conservation Area Factor Consrv Target Factor Viability Obj 2. Shows Assumed Linkages Between Factors A Conceptual Model shows how you assume factors relate to one another. For example: Deforestation leads Erosion leads to to & Runoff Siltation leads to Reef Damage leads to Coral Reef at Our Site 3. Shows Major Direct and Indirect Threats Direct Threats = Factors that immediately impact the target condition. - Anchor damage - Sedimentation Indirect Threats = Factors that underlie or lead to the direct threats. - Need for cash - Economic crises 4. Presents Only Relevant Factors (Modeling is both a Science and an Art) 4. Presents Only Relevant Factors (Modeling is both a Science and an Art) Deforestation Excess Rainfall Climate Patterns leads Erosion leads to to & Runoff Siltation Sunspots leads to Reef Damage leads to Coral Reef at Our Site 4. Presents Only Relevant Factors (Modeling is both a Science and an Art) Excess Rainfall Climate Patterns Deforestation leads Erosion leads to to & Runoff Siltation World Timber Prices USA Timber Demand California Housing Starts Sunspots leads to Reef Damage Success of Movie Business leads to Coral Reef at Our Site Emergence of New Sex Symbols 5. Is Based on Sound Information Existing Info = Data that have already been collected for some other purpose than designing and monitoring your project Primary Info = Data that you specifically collect while designing and monitoring your project 6. Results from a Team Effort An Example of a Conceptual Model Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity An Example of a Conceptual Model An Example of a Conceptual Model Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp An Example of a Conceptual Model Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp An Example of a Conceptual Model Forestry Siltation Water levels in river Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Forestry Siltation Surface water diversions Water levels in river Water table levels Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Forestry Siltation Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Water table levels Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Forestry Siltation Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Water table levels Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Forestry Siltation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Housing developments Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Water table levels Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Siltation Surface water diversions Demand for water Housing developments Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Water table levels Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Siltation Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Precipitation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Housing developments “Enlightened” agency policy Water table levels Levees (stream channelization) Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Gr. Sandhill Crane Conversion to agriculture Exotic Species Swainson's Hawk Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression An Example of a Conceptual Model Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Siltation Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Precipitation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Housing developments “Enlightened” agency policy Water table levels Levees (stream channelization) Conversion to agriculture Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Cowbirds Gr. Sandhill Crane Rats Swainson's Hawk Bullfrogs Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression The Model in “Five-S” Terminology Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Siltation Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Precipitation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Housing developments “Enlightened” agency policy Water table levels Levees (stream channelization) Conversion to agriculture Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Cowbirds Gr. Sandhill Crane Rats Swainson's Hawk Bullfrogs Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression Initial Conceptual Model: Situation at Site Prior to the Project Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Siltation Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Precipitation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Housing developments “Enlightened” agency policy Water table levels Levees (stream channelization) Conversion to agriculture Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Cowbirds Gr. Sandhill Crane Rats Swainson's Hawk Bullfrogs Native Amphibians Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression Project Conceptual Model: How Project Will Change Situation Lobby state govt for incentives for low water crops Fire supression Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Siltation Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Precipitation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Housing developments Breach levees Water table levels Obj 3 Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Obj 4a Promote water saving practices Lobby local govt to limit water use “Enlightened” agency policy Levees (stream channelization) Purchase land Obj 2 Obtain easements Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Conversion to agriculture Remove egg masses Obj 1 Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Cowbirds Gr. Sandhill Crane Rats Swainson's Hawk Bullfrogs Chinook Salmon Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Obj 4b The Enhanced Five-S Framework for Measuring Conservation Impact Systems • Focal Targets • Rigorous Viability Stresses & Sources • Critical Threats • Situation Analysis Implement & Monitor Analyze & Communicate Adapt and Learn Success • Indicators & Monitoring • Summary Measures Strategies • Goal & Objectives • Strategic Actions & Tasks Initial Conceptual Model Altered fire regime Forestry Logging practices Siltation Upper Watershed Native Aquatic spp Precipitation Agricultural practices Overappropriation of surface water Surface water diversions Demand for water Water levels in river Groundwater pumping Housing developments “Enlightened” agency policy Water table levels Levees (stream channelization) Conversion to agriculture Natural flooding cycle from river to floodplain Upper Floodplain Chinook Salmon Lower Floodplain Riparian Forest Cowbirds Gr. Sandhill Crane Rats Swainson's Hawk Bullfrogs Native Amphibians Cosumnes River Watershed Biodiversity Fire supression Conceptual Model Break-Out Session For your project site: Identify major factors affecting targets Build an “initial conceptual model”