Transcript slides

From Food Quantity to Diet Quality:
How the Race Against Malthus is Changing
Will Masters
Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy, Tufts University
www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
Tufts Research Day on Global Food Security
25 April 2016
Last week, more bad news from Africa:
Also, this:
The race against Malthus is changing
as commodities get cheaper
and population growth slows down
1800
1850
We are
here
(approx.)
The race against Malthus is changing
from more food to more diverse foods
Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data,
faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E
...but not always healthier foods
Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data,
faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E
...and diverse trajectories over time
Source: Calculated from FAO Food Balance Sheet data,
faostat3.fao.org/download/FB/FBS/E
The food system’s race against Malthus
runs through rural population growth
South Asia's rural population
will peak and decline after 2028,
due to fertility decline
Globally, the whole world's rural
population is already near its peak
and will soon decline
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
2.50
Total
2.25
Rural
2.00
Urban
1.75
6.0
1.50
5.0
1.25
4.0
1.00
3.0
0.75
2.0
1.0
0.0
“peak rural”
is 2022
Total
Rural
Urban
0.50
0.25
0.00
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision.
Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.
The most delayed demographic transition
is in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population
will keep growing past 2050,
despite rapid urbanization
Globally, the whole world's rural
population is already near its peak
and will soon decline
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
2.50
Total
2.25
Rural
2.00
Urban
1.75
6.0
1.50
5.0
1.25
4.0
1.00
3.0
0.75
2.0
1.0
0.0
“peak rural”
is 2022
Total
Rural
Urban
0.50
0.25
0.00
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision.
Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.
Rural still
rising past 2050!
Despite its fast-growing cities,
Africa is the last frontier of Malthusian
rural population growth
Sub-Saharan Africa's rural population
will keep growing past 2050,
despite rapid urbanization
2.50
2.25
2.00
1.75
Total
Rural
Urban
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
1800
1850
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision.
Released July 2014 at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup.
Rural still
rising past 2050!
Much to discuss today!
The race against Malthus is changing
In English language books,
“hunger” declined after 1945
but rose again after 2005,
“obesity” rose in 1970s and since 2000
1800
1850
Source: Google Books ngram viewer,
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=hunger,obesity&
year_start=1900&year_end=2015