Transcript National Vision on Importance of Consistency- Eli Jacks NWSHQ Acting Chief of the AFS Forecast Services Division

Some Non-Haz Simp Items
(The NWS Reorg and Consistency)
Binghamton Sub-Regional Workshop
Eli Jacks, Acting Chief, Forecast Services Division
Analyze, Forecast and Support Office
September 24, 2015
New Organizational Structure
HQ Leadership
 John Murphy, Chief Operating Officer
 Ming Ji, Director, Office of Science & Tech Integration
 Luis Cano, Director, Office of Dissemination
 Joe Pica, Acting Director, Office of Observations
 David Michaud, Director, Office of Central Processing
 Andy Stern, Director, AFS Office
 John Ogren, Acting Director, Office of Chief Learning Officer
 Deirdre Jones, Director, Office of Facilities
 Benjie Spencer, Chief Engineer
AFS Office Organization
Analyze, Forecast, and Support
Office
Andrew Stern
Analysis and Mission
Support Division
Mark Tew (Acting)
AFS Portfolio Office:
Executive Officer:
Michelle Hawkins (Acting)
Portfolio Management:
Dawn McClure (Acting)
Forecast Services Division
Eli Jacks (Acting)
Analysis and Nowcast
Branch
(Vacant)
Severe, Fire, Public, and
Winter Services Branch
Heath Hockenberry (Acting)
Decision Support
Integration Branch
(Vacant)
Climate Services Branch
Fiona Horsfall
Digital and Graphical
Information Support
Branch (Vacant)
Aviation and Space Weather
Services Branch
Kevin Stone (Acting)
Water Resources Services
Branch
Mary Mullusky
Marine, Tropical, and
Tsunami Services Branch
Mike Dion (Acting)
New : Analysis & Nowcast Branch
Emphasis is on 06 hour time period
AFS in the Governance Structure
AFS works with all
OPPSD Portfolio
Leadership via the
Portfolio
Integration
Council (PIC)
AFS works with all
Leadership within
the COO Tree via
the Mission
Delivery Council
(MDC)
AFS Portfolio
New Corporate Councils
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Spotlight on Consistency
Types of Consistency
 Areal
 Temporal
 Process
 Policy
 Messaging
 Formatting
 Internal versus External
Example: Areal Grid Consistency
Snow Forecast along 3 CWA Boarders
Example: Areal WWA Consistency
“Walls” & “Donut Holes” in the West
Pre-Decisional
Example: Temporal Consistency
Product Shelf Life (location of ZR)
Generated Complaint
from FEMA HQ
Example: Process Consistency
Differences between WFO and National Center Products
WFO Red Flag Warnings
12Z Apr 24, 2014
SPC Fire Wx Forecast
Apr 24, 2014
Example: Messaging Consistency
A “crazy quilt” of graphicasts and weather stories
Questions for Discussion
 What is your feeling – consistency versus accuracy?
 What opportunities are there to improve forecast &
warning consistency?
 How about messaging consistency?
 What can NWSH do to support you from a policy
standpoint to promote consistency?
 What additional tools do you need to promote
consistency?
Possible solutions
 - Establish common deadline for collaboration and publishing (per WR model).
 - Create software that disables publishing if collaboration does not meet tolerance per 10-201
 - Create automated national maps with smoothing capabilities for high level use
 - Encourage national centers to use grids as initial input to their maps.
 - Common smarttools and data sets across WFOs to better initialize grids.

Tighten all grid tolerances to minimize cumulative errors that build over time especially for
derived grids
 - Define ROC roles in addressing existing inconsistencies
 ROC staff need to have mediator skills.
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