Transcript Long-Range Disease Risk Prediction -- Algorithmic Information Fusion in a Life and Death Environment

Long-Range Disease Risk Prediction – Algorithmic
Information Fusion in a Life and Death Environment
Bruce S. Kristal, PhD
Dept of Neurosurgery, Brigham and Women’s Hospital
Dept of Surgery, Harvard Medical School
Industry Affiliations
(Disclosure per Partners Healthcare policy):
Related
ThermoFisher: My lab has an LTQ-Orbitrap, we beta-test SIEVE, some work done in collaboration.
I also collaborated for years with ESA, Inc (~1995-2005), which has since been acquired by
ThermoFisher. Ongoing discussions
Unrelated:
Additional consulting: Mead Johnson (Consultant, inactive), MARS Petcare UK (consultant,
inactive), Kelloggs (also, gift)
Metabolon/Metabolomics: Consultant/Equity, Post-sales Royalties
(IP agreements for ten patents via/Cornell Med)
“Caloric Intake” and Disease
Humans:
Increased BMI associated with
increased risk of neoplasia, type II
diabetes, cardio- and cerebro-vascular
disease …
Laboratory Rodents:
Low calorie diets increase longevity
and delay morbidity
Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults
Between 1985 and 2010
Definitions:
• Obesity: Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher.
• Body Mass Index (BMI): A measure of an adult’s
weight in relation to his or her height, specifically the
adult’s weight in kilograms divided by the square of
his or her height in meters.
Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults
Between 1985 and 2010
Source of the data:
• The data shown in these maps were collected through
CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
(BRFSS). Each year, state health departments use
standard procedures to collect data through a series
of telephone interviews with U.S. adults. Height and
weight data are self-reported.
• Prevalence estimates generated for the maps may
vary slightly from those generated for the states by
BRFSS (http://aps.nccd.cdc.gov/brfss) as slightly
different analytic methods are used.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1985
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1986
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1987
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1988
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1989
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1990
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1991
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1992
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1993
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1994
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1995
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1996
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1997
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1998
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1999
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2000
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
≥20%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2001
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2002
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2003
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2004
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
≥25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2005
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2006
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2007
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2008
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2009
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 2010
(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person)
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults
BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010
(*BMI 30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’4” person)
2000
1990
2010
No Data
<10%
10%–14%
15%–19%
20%–24%
Source: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, CDC.
25%–29%
≥30%
• In 1990, among states participating in the Behavioral Risk
Factor Surveillance System, 10 states had a prevalence of
obesity less than 10% and no state had prevalence equal
to or greater than 15%.
• By 2000, no state had a prevalence of obesity less than
10%, 23 states had a prevalence between 20–24%, and no
state had prevalence equal to or greater than 25%.
• In 2010, no state had a prevalence of obesity less than
20%. Thirty-six states had a prevalence equal to or greater
than 25%; 12 of these states (Alabama, Arkansas,
Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri,
Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West
Virginia) had a prevalence equal to or greater than 30%.
Citations
• Mokdad AH, et al. The spread of the obesity epidemic in the
United States, 1991–1998. JAMA 1999;282:16:1519–22.
• Mokdad AH, et al. The continuing epidemics of obesity and
diabetes in the United States. JAMA 2001;286:10:1519–22.
• Mokdad AH, et al. Prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and obesityrelated health risk factors, 2001. JAMA 2003;289:1:76–9.
• CDC. State-specific prevalence of obesity among adults —
United States, 2005. MMWR 2006;55(36):985–8.
• CDC. State-specific prevalence of obesity among adults —
United States, 2007. MMWR 2008;57(28):765–8.
• CDC. Vital signs: State-specific prevalence of obesity among
adults — United States, 2009. MMWR 2010;59:1–5.