Transcript Scale

Putting a finger on urban
Yves Bourgeois, PhD
Director, Urban and community studies institute
University of New Brunswick
Saint John, 3 October 2013
1
1983
2013
PIB / hab $ cour rang PIB / hab $ cour rang
Suisse
16420
1
80473
3
USA
15089
2
51248
9
Norvège
14701
3
105478
2
Canada
13175
4
52364
7
Luxembourg
12309
5
112135
1
Suède
11648
6
60020
6
Danemark
11571
7
58668
5
Australie
11553
8
64156
4
Islande
11430
9
44120
Finlande
10335
10
48707
Autriche
9311
49255
10
Singapour
6564
52179
8
2
Is this a village, town or city ?
3
Main argument


Never take scale for granted in your research or
projects.
Existing boundaries may be the wrong scale in
understanding the problem or finding solutions.
4
1. Urban vs rural
… a false dichotomy


Is NB a rural province ?
In 2011, 47% of NB’s population lived in rural
areas (<1000; <400 sqkm)
5
The idyllic nirvana of rural NB ?
6
No, rural growth in NB occurred as employment
shifted to post-industrial economy
Population, urban and rural, by province and
territory
(New Brunswick)
Population Urban Rural
%
N.B.
1851
1861
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
193,800
252,047
285,594
321,233
321,263
331,120
351,889
387,876
408,219
457,401
515,697
554,616
597,936
616,788
634,560
677,250
696,403
709,445
723,900
738,133
729,498
729,997
751,171
14
13
18
18
15
23
28
32
32
31
42
46
46
51
57
52
51
49
48
49
50
51
53
%
Employment %
Ag Fish
86
87
82
82
85
77
72
68
68
69
58
54
54
49
43
48
49
51
52
51
50
49
48
Forest
PSTS
Health
7.0
2.1
5.9
0.7
5.3
3.0
1.1
3.0
1.4
6.1
2.3
x
x
1.9
8.2
2.0
1.5
1.6
2.7
10.9
1.8
0.9
2.0
3.7
11.4
1.6
0.9
1.1
4.3
13.3
7



What is really at play in NB is that urban(post)industrial growth has been extending onto
suburbs and countryside
Saint John’s population has been in decline, but
CMA steady
…Quispamsis tripled in size 1981-2011
• NB has been urbanizing
100 years +
• NBers have been
following jobs (Mass,
TO, Alberta)
• Low density
communities are being
urbanized from within
• While 53% urban where
they sleep, but 63% in 8
cities (MIZs)
• Work and play (?)
http://users.humboldt.edu/mstephens/ha8
te/hate_map.html#
Why should I care ?







(Will this be on the exam?)
Where do we locate schools, hospitals, arenas?
Who pays for amenities and roads to get there?
Free riders? (water treatment? roads? aquatic
centre?) …funding formula
We underinvest in amenity quality and overinvest
on quantity and roads
Tim’s, McDonald’s, Costco
Do municipal boundaries reflect optimal level of
planning and provision? Finance & HR capacity
Regional service commissions (RSC) solution or
another layer of government?
Real issue is connected vs remote (…MIZs)
9
Results – Adoption

Firms in rural areas use internet-based technologies significantly less
% of firms using internet-based technologies
client feedback
Employee collaborations
20.2%
25.6%
43.7%
20.9%
33.9%
43.4%
44.6%
Product updates
Recruit
50.0%
26.4%
33.3%
49.2%
39.5%
Training
Software downloads
Sales
23.3%
58.7%
46.4%
51.6%
50.4%
60.1%
73.0%
32.7%
38.1%
Rural
55.8%
Purchasing
41.9%
Prospecting
65.1%
64.9%
58.9%
Techno seek
77.0%
72.6%
68.2%
Market research
Twitter
84.1%
77.4%
77.9%
Website
Linkedin
25.3%
20.3%
30.2%
Urban
80.2%
Metro
53.6%
51.9%
marketing
68.5%
39.6%
90.5%
95.8%
93.7%
66.7%
10
52.4%
2. Urban systems





RSCs an attempt to create critical mass and better
plan and provide local services among connected
communities, urban core and rural hinterland
When it comes to economic opportunities, scale
can be global (not just markets, but networks)
DERN: where we fit in global production networks
Export activities we want: http://www.gnb.ca/inb/en/index-e.html
Export activities we have…
11
NB adds very little value to its exports
Top 12 exports by HS2 codes (2011) ($1000
Cdn)
NB
27 - Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Bituminous Substances and
Mineral Waxes
Que
10688996.80 76 - Aluminum and Articles Thereof
7172960.53
03 - Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and Other Aquatic Invertebrates
648674.80 88 - Aircrafts and Spacecrafts
47 - Pulp of Wood and The Like; Waste and Scrap of Paper or
Paperboard
587780.52 84 - Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances 5696133.23
48 - Paper, Paperboard and Articles Made From These Materials
558080.27 48 - Paper, Paperboard and Articles Made From These Materials
4808008.75
44 - Wood and Articles of Wood (Incl. Wood Charcoal)
27 - Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Bituminous Substances and Mineral
367314.44 Waxes
3530309.52
31 - Fertilizers
319912.27 85 - Electrical or Electronic Machinery and Equipment
2873929.40
20 - Preparations of Vegetables, Fruit, Nuts or Other Parts of
Plants
304569.09 26 - Ores, Slag and Ash
2447381.73
16 - Meat, Fish and Seafood Preparations
171773.61 74 - Copper and Articles Thereof
2422253.51
78 - Lead and Articles Thereof
169829.43 Vehicles
2250096.14
26 - Ores, Slag and Ash
157451.69 39 - Plastics and Articles Thereof
1793827.33
72 - Iron and Steel
101170.14 72 - Iron and Steel
1684099.06
6445340.38
87 - Motor Vehicles, Trailers, Bicycles, Motorcycles and Other Similar
07 - Edible Vegetables and Certain Roots and Tubers
67710.17 02 - Meat and Edible Meat Offal
1567309.6312
Sometimes biggers is better




NB small-town north vs bigger-city south debate
disconnected from broader global reality
Canada’s demographic and economic growth
driven by cities, and very large cities in particular.
2009-2012 CMAs 100-350k grew 2.1%, which is
lower than for all of Canada 3.4%, and compared
to 3.3% for 350-1M and 5.1% for cities 1M+
Global phenomenon
Why? ISRN hypotheses… innovation
infrastructure? creative workers?
13
Critical mass matters









Small-city penalty?
Immigration, air connections, VC
…are scale-dependent
NB individual CMAs don’t have much size (94140k), but can borrow size off each other
Polycentric regions: NB, Sask, NC, Randstadt…
No dominant centre can create duplication but
can also inhibit critical mass
Kumbayah ? All’s fun til someone loses an xport
NFPs are doing it, so why aren’t cities ?
Parochialism, tax base
How do we plan economic infrastructure beyond
municipal boundaries?
5-yr Development grant
14
Summary
Need to do a better job understanding

how “urban-rural” connects

how city-regions connect in urban system
Or we’ll keep fighting over shrinking pie
15