Transcript GOTV - Ground Game Strategies

Get Out The Vote
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GOTV
TRUE OR FALSE?
GOTV should be focused on getting
as many voters out to the polls as
possible.
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GOTV
GOTV – Targeted Activity
Objective
 Get out YOUR vote!
 GOTV activities should be targeted to
supporters who you identified through
micro targeting and voter identification
efforts.
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GOTV
GOTV – Targeted Activity
Low-propensity voters
vs.
High-propensity voters
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GOTV
GOTV – Targeted Activity
Low-propensity
How to mobilize
these voters
High-propensity
Favorable
Voters
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Low-propensity
High-propensity
Unknown
and Swing
Voters
Unfavorable
Voters
GOTV
GOTV – Targeted Activity
Turnout
Partisanship
Democrats
Independent
Republicans
Always
Vote
X
Persuasion
X??
Sometimes
Vote
X
Persuasion
GOTV
Seldom
Vote
X
X
X
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GOTV
GOTV – Building a Foundation
In order to maximize GOTV Efforts
You MUST be intentional about
VOTER IDENTIFICATION
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GOTV
GOTV – Two Phases
Phase One – AV/EV
Phase Two – Election Day
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GOTV
GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV)
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Know your rules.
Know your dates
Develop your AV/EV programs (online/offline)
Execute AV/EV programs (online/offline)
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GOTV
GOTV – Phase One (AV/EV)
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GOTV
Not all votes are created equal
2012 Election: Analysis of AV/EV in Florida.
Florida
Hi-propensity voters
Ohio
Obama Romney Obama Romney
58%
71%
58%
76%
Lo-propensity voters
27%
22%
27%
21%
New Voters
15%
7%
15%
3%
Raw total
2.4m
2.1m
1.0m
653k
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GOTV
GOTV – Phase Two
ELECTION DAY - Start several weeks in advance
 Volunteer-based mobilization to remind voters
of upcoming vote.
 Develop Precinct Workers for ED
 Develop “knock & drag” operations for ED
 Develop Campaign War Room for ED
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GOTV
GOTV – Mobilization Methods
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Door-to-Door.
Phone calls.
Direct mail.
Robocalls.
Literature drops.
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Television ads.
Radio ads.
Online ads.
Social media.
Events.
GOTV
GOTV
Mobilizing Inclusion:
Transforming the
Electorate through
Get-Out-the-Vote
Campaigns
Lisa Garcia Bedolla
Melissa R. Michelson
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GOTV
GOTV
Get Out The Vote:
How to Increase
Voter Turnout
Donald P. Green
Alan S. Gerber
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GOTV
Door-to-door
Door-to-door
Most effective GOTV method
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 14 contacts.
 Estimate: 6 contacts per hour.
 Spillover effects for an entire household.
 Targeted – not every voting household.
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GOTV
Door-to-door
Differences in canvassers
 Local canvassers are more effective than nonlocal canvassers.
 Latino canvassers reach Latino voters more
successfully than non-Latino canvassers.
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GOTV
Phone calls
Phone calls
Volunteer phone calls
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 38 contacts.
 Estimate 16 contacts per hour.
Commercial live calls
 No special coaching: 1 vote per 180 contacts.
 With special coaching: 1 vote per 35 contacts.
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GOTV
Phone calls
Quality of the script
 Conversational scripts are more effective than
short and impersonal scripts.
Follow-up phone calls
 Follow-up calls made to individuals who
promised in an initial call to vote leads to
significant increases in turnout.
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GOTV
Warning!
From 2008 to 2012, the
contact rate for phone calls
in the Obama campaign
dropped from 23% to 16%.
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GOTV
Robocalls
Robocalls
An ineffective mobilization method
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 900 contacts.
 A statistically insignificant effect.
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GOTV
Literature drops
Literature drops
An ineffective mobilization method
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 189 contacts.
 A statistically insignificant effect.
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GOTV
Direct mail
Direct mail
Partisan direct mail
 Large number of studies show the average
effect cannot be large.
 There are exceptions based on the message.
Nonpartisan direct mail
 Effectiveness: 1 vote per 200 contacts.
 Borderline insignificant.
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GOTV
Social pressure experiment
Field experiment with four treatments
1. Do your civic duty and vote!
2. You are being studied!
3. Who votes is public information!
4. What if your neighbors knew whether you
voted?
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election
among 344,084 registered voters
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GOTV
Social pressure experiment
Increase in turnout compared to control group
1. Civic duty mailing: 1.8%
2. Hawthorne mailing: 2.6%
3. Self mailing: 4.9%
4. Neighbors mailing: 8.1%
Context: Conducted in the 2006 Michigan primary election
among 344,084 registered voters
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GOTV
Most effective GOTV tactic
Apply social pressure to
motivate people to vote.
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GOTV
TV and radio advertisements
TV and radio advertisements
Television ads
 Raises zip-code-wide turnout by 0.5 percent.
 Mixed results and generally have weak effects.
Radio ads
 Raises city-wide turnout by 0.8 percent.
 Mixed results and generally have weak effects.
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GOTV
TV and radio advertisements
Do television and radio ads matter?
 The apparent effect of ads decay quickly.
When do television and radio ads matter?
 When there is a large advertising advantage.
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GOTV
GOTV
Final thoughts
 Target GOTV efforts to YOUR supporters.
 Door-to-door and phone calls are the most
effective mobilization methods.
 Leverage the power of a volunteer’s social
network to mobilize and persuade.
 Applying social pressure is the most effective
way to drive an unlikely voter to the polls.
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GOTV
GOTV
Questions?
[email protected]
GroundGameHQ.com/leadership-institute
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GOTV