Transcript Profiler_brf_JKelly.ppt

Recommendation for NOAA/NWS:
• Preserve current wind profiling capability.
• In the national interest, expand to nationwide network.
Advantages of the NOAA Profiler Network (NPN)
• Extensive, documented, hard evidence confirming the value of NPN profilers
to NWS field operations and also in numerical weather prediction.
• Integral part of composite upper-air observing system that includes
rawinsondes, sensors on commercial aircraft, satellites, and WSR-88D VAD
winds.
• Accurate all-weather, high temporal frequency (6 to 60 min) wind speed and
direction from near the ground to 45,000 to 53,000 ft.
Strong
impact on
short-range
wind
forecasts
Advantages of the NPN (continued)
• Profilers make detailed observations above and below
en route commercial jet traffic, where there are few
other wind observations. Case in point: May 3, 1999
Oklahoma tornado outbreak.
• Profilers are remote sensing platforms from which many
other kinds of observations may be made continuously.
• Reliable, unattended operation, remote diagnostics,
short mean time to repair (MTTR) make them cost
effective.
Oklahoma/Southern Kansas Tornado Outbreak of May 3, 1999
Public very well served by the NWS in Norman prior to and during this significant event. Numerous DOC Gold
Medals were awarded to NWS employees for their performance during this event.
Positive feedback was overwhelming; news coverage often mentioned the advance warning provided by the NWS.
Low casualties attributable to the effective response…due to early NWS severe weather warnings
11:15
15:00
15:49
16.15
16:30
16:47
SPC Day 1 outlook upgraded to moderate risk (due to morning soundings, profiler data and RUC output)
SPC Experimental Probabilistic Outlook of significant chance for F2 or greater tornadoes (due to profiler data)
SPC Day 1 outlook upgraded to high risk (due to profiler data.)
Severe thunderstorm warning issued by Norman WFO
Tornado watch issued by Norman WFO
Tornado warning issued by Norman WFO
…without profiler data, SPC forecasters would not have upgraded from moderate to high risk
…without profiler data…the state of readiness of NWS offices…would not have been as high
The current NPN has a limited lifetime.
• 30 of the 35 operating NOAA Wind Profilers transmit at
404.37 MHz, close enough to the Search and Rescue
(SAR) frequency that sites must cease transmitting
whenever a SAR satellite is in view. At present, this
results in minor outages in service.
• By 2006, the European Community will start to launch a
constellation of GPS satellites (Galileo) with SAR
capability. At least one (eventually 10-14) of these
satellites will be in the sky at all times over the 405 MHz
NOAA network, forcing it to cease operating altogether.
• A protected, dedicated frequency (449 MHz) has been
assigned for future profiler operations.
Solutions: Option 1
Change to dedicated frequency (449 MHz) and retain
NPN configuration.
• Convert 404 MHz profilers to 449 MHz profilers
• Modernize electronics, data processing, and
communications.
• Harden sites to protect the infrastructure.
• Estimated cost: $10.5M
• Time to implement: 3 years
Solutions: Option 2
Use NPN as springboard to a national network.
• Convert 404 MHz profilers to 449 MHz.
• Modernize electronics, data processing, and
communications.
• Expand network with a mixture of tropospheric and
boundary layer profilers.
• Regions, WFOs, and NCEP provide guidance on type
and location.
• FSL provides technical and programmatic support.
• Cost for a 120-station network (one site in each WFO’s
area of responsibility): $ 53M (low end)
$ 87M (high end)
Why a national network?
• Improved weather services
– Numerical weather prediction
– Local forecast applications
– Responds to performance
measures in NWS Strategic
Plan
• Air Quality
– Compute concentrations and trajectories of pollutants (public health
concern)
• Homeland Security
– Current coverage is 1/4 area of lower 48 states; many large population
centers unprotected.
– Proven technology
– Owned, operated, and under control of federal government
– Not subject to airline finances or less than full operation of carriers
– All-weather operation, 24 hours a day
– Track toxic releases (chemical, biological, nuclear) immediately and
continuously
Solutions: Option 3
Inaction
• The 404 MHz NPN profilers are shut down.
• Lose vital resource
• The Profiler Program Office disbands.
• NOAA Profiler “Center of Excellence” disappears.
• Internal technical support for NWS Alaska Region profilers
unavailable
• Cost to decommission NPN sites to original condition: $1.7M