Transcript WhitelyBinder_AdaptToClimateChg_w_notes.ppt

Adapting to Climate Change
Lara Whitely Binder
Amy Snover
Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington
June 15, 2011
ITEP Tribal Air Quality Conference
Climate Science in
the Public Interest
Atmospheric Lifetime of Individual
Major Greenhouse Gas Molecules
Carbon
Dioxide
~60% of warming from GHG
5 to 200 years
Methane
~20% of warming from GHG
8 to 12 years
Nitrous
Oxide
~6% of warming from GHG
~120 years
CF4 (Perfluoromethane)
>50,000 years
IPCC 2001
Climate change will require sustained mitigation
and adaptation efforts
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Source: IPCC 2001
How Does Adaptation Occur?
• Reactive Adaptation
– Dealing with climate impacts
after-the-fact
• Anticipatory Adaptation
– Taking proactive steps to reduce
the risks associated with climate
change for individuals,
communities , and ecosystems
Both are ways of adapting to climate
change, however…
Why Not Reactive Adaptation Only ?
• Reactive adaptation may be “too little too late”
in some cases (e.g., loss of a species)
• Reactive adaptation may cost more than
anticipatory adaptation
• Reactive adaptation runs the risk of being shortsighted by focusing on the crisis at hand
1. Awareness
2. Analysis
3. Action
4. Assessment
1. Awareness:
Recognize that
the past may no
longer be a
reliable guide to
the future
2. Analysis:
Determine likely
consequences of
climate change
for the specific
sector or
resource of
interest
3. Action:
Integrate
climate change
projections into
planning
processes
Climate Resilience
The 4-As of Adaptation Planning
4. Assessment:
Evaluate climate
adaptation
efforts in light of
progress to date
& emerging
science
What is Adaptive Planning?
“Climate Proof”
The Goal of Adaptive Planning
Developing more “climate resilient”
organizations, communities, economies, and
ecosystems
What does this mean?
Taking steps to avoid or minimize the climate
change impacts we can address while increasing
the ability of human and natural systems to
“bounce back” from the impacts that cannot be
avoided (or anticipated)
The Basic
Planning Process
(a) Information gathering – how will climate change affect my
community/region? (an ongoing part of the process)
(b) Make the commitment to prepare for climate change
(c) Assemble your planning “team” and bring them up to speed
(d) Determine priorities for planning (vulnerability assessment)
(e) Develop and implement your adaptation “plan”
(f) Periodically revisit your adaptation plan for needed
adjustments – how has the science, your community changed?
Why assess vulnerability?
• To understand actual implications of climate
change
• To provide a do-nothing benchmark for
evaluating response options
• To identify priority areas for action (high
exposure, high sensitivity, low adaptability)
Information on climate impacts from available
literature and, in some cases, scenario
development.
Components of Vulnerability
Vulnerability = Exposure + Sensitivity – Adaptive Capacity
How Do We Assess Vulnerability? Consider...
• Identify Key Exposures. What climate change impacts is my
community likely to experience?
• Assess Sensitivity. How will my community change in response
to projected changes in climate?
Think about...
– Where you currently experience problems associated with
temperature, precipitation extremes/extreme weather events.
– Is climate change likely to make these worse or better?
• Consider Adaptability. What is my community’s ability to
adjust in response to projected or actual changes in climate?
How do we reduce vulnerability?
• Reduce the exposure of the system to climate
fluctuations or their impacts (e.g., by restricting
development in a flood plain)
• Reduce the system’s sensitivity (e.g., by requiring homes
in the flood plain to be built on stilts
• Increase the adaptability of the system to deal with the
effects of climate fluctuations (by providing education
about climate risks to encourage relocation or insurance
payouts to flooded residents to rebuild their homes)
Two-Pronged Approach for Adaptation:
Building Capacity....
Building Adaptive
Capacity
• Addressing institutional,
legal, cultural, technical,
fiscal and other barriers
• Activities can be taken
independent of specific
climate projections
Examples of Building Adaptive Capacity
• Develop (and update) a strategy to guide adaptation
activities in your organization/community
• Increase outreach and education to stakeholders
• Increase training opportunities and access to
technologies that support adaptation needs
• Increase partnerships with organizations that can
support adaptation needs
• Identify and address regulatory, institutional, and
other barriers to adaptation planning
Two-Pronged Approach:
.....and Delivering Action
Building Adaptive
Capacity
Delivering Adaptive
Actions
• Addressing institutional,
legal, cultural, technical,
fiscal and other barriers
• Activities can be taken
independent of specific
climate projections
• Implementing actions to
address specific climate
vulnerabilities
• Choice and timing of
some actions may
depend on specifics of
the climate projections
Examples of Delivering Adaptation Actions
• Increase water conservation measures
• Strengthen dikes and levees where appropriate
• Restore critical habitat for climate-sensitive species
• Plant tree species known to have a broad range of
tolerances
• Improve the use of early warning systems for extreme
heat events
• Increase use of setbacks or rolling easements for
coastal land uses
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community:
Climate Change Initiative
• Focused on impacts related to: sea level rise, storm surge,
wildfire risk, extreme heat, changes in habitat
• Priority actions include (time frame if funded):
– Delineating coastal protection zones (1-3 yrs)
– Evaluate/study alternatives & solutions for impacts to sensitive
coastal resources (shellfish, etc.) (3-5 yrs)
– Establish dike maintenance authority and program for short-term
support shoreline diking, where appropriate (3-5 yrs)
– Establish/promote new reservation-wide program for wildfire risk
mitigation (1-3 yrs)
– Coordinate with local jurisdictions on regional access/mobility
preservation (1-3 yrs)
City of Olympia:
Planning for Sea Level
 Looking at implications for the storm sewer & combined
storm/sanitary sewer system
 Invested in geological monitoring equipment to monitor land
subsidence or uplifting
 Consolidating # of stormwater outfalls (from 14 to 8) to reduce
the number of possible entry points for marine water to flow
into downtown
 Analyzing potential shoreline sea walls/barriers
 Incorporating sea rise issues in Comprehensive Plan and
Shoreline Master Plan revisions
General Implementation Tools
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Zoning rules and regulations
Taxation (including tax incentives)
Building codes/design standards
Utility rates/fee setting
Public safety rules and regulations
Issuance of bonds
Infrastructure development
Permitting and enforcement
Best management practices
Outreach and education
Emergency management powers
Partnership building with other communities
Choosing and Prioritizing Adaptation Activities
Key questions…
• Will the actions meeting your preparedness goals?
• Is the action robust under a range of climate change scenarios?
• Is the action flexible itself, and does it increase flexibility in how a
planning area is managed?
• Can the action be implemented and in what time frame?
• Is the action cost-effective?
Additional factors…
• Are there unique “windows of opportunity” for implementing a
particular action?
• Is the action equitable?
• Will the action decrease the risk of losing unique environmental or
cultural resources?
• Will the action address a risk for which there is greater scientific
confidence?
Guiding Principals for Planning
• Increase public awareness of climate change and
projected impacts
• Develop and maintain technical capacity to prepare
for climate change impacts
• “Mainstream” information about climate change
vulnerabilities, risks, and preparedness into
planning, policy, and investment decisions
• Increase the adaptive capacity of built, natural, and
human systems in your community.
• Strengthen community partnerships that reduce
vulnerability and risk.
Dealing with Uncertainty
• We rarely have perfect information. Uncertainty is everywhere.
– Should I buy earthquake insurance?
– Should I change jobs?
– How long will this recession last?
• Somehow we manage…
– Identify options,
– Build theories,
– Evaluate risk,
– Learn from experience,
– Rely on experts/peers
Thanks to Tom Pagano, USDA NRCS, for much of this slide
Where Are the Major Uncertainties
in Modeling Future Climate Change?
• Some aspects of the climate system are random and
therefore unpredictable (e.g., influence of volcanic eruptions
on global climate)
• Future greenhouse gas emissions
• Estimates of climate sensitivity to a doubling in CO2
– Absent any feedback mechanisms: ~ 2°F
– With feedback mechanisms: 3.6°F to 8°F
– Changes in low cloud cover are a key feedback mechanism
with high uncertainty
At its core, planning for climate change is about
risk management
• How might (INSERT YOUR CONCERN HERE) affect my
community?
• What are the consequences of those impacts?
• What steps can be taken to reduce the consequences?
Planning for Uncertainty
Look to implement
• “No regrets” strategies
Provides benefits now with or without
climate change
• “Low regrets” strategies
Provide climate change benefits for little
additional cost or risk
• “Win-win” or “Co-benefit” strategies
Reduce climate change impacts while
providing other environmental, social, or
economic benefits
Planning for Climate Change
Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be
substantially different than the past.
Use scenario based planning over long time scales to evaluate
options rather than the historical record.
Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face
of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach.
Plan for the long haul. Where possible, make adaptive responses
and agreements “self tending” to avoid repetitive costs of
intervention as impacts increase over time.
QUESTIONS?
Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.edu/cig
Lara Whitely Binder
[email protected]