Transcript damagedef.ppt

Definition of damage and losses. Challenges in accounting and
estimating
Tools:
Hazard
Vulnerability
Probabilistic risk assessment
R= H* V*E
Scenarios setting
you choose a given input
for the hazard component
Building simulations
you add the dynamic dimension
Risk
HAZARD
INPUT
1
Hazard
Vulnerability
D = f( y, V) d(y)
Risk
0
Short term
measures
RISK PREVENTION
(OR MITIGATION?)
Long term
measures
Risk assessment tools
Risk prevention measures
(to feed prevention measures)
Land use planning
PRA
Structural
measures
* re-develpment
Hazard
Exposure
Physical
vulnerability
* relocation
Deterministic
scenario
Systemic
vulnerability
* restauration
Socioeconomic
vulnerability
* zoning
Support to implementation
* Disclosure
Complete event
scenario
* Communication
* Insurance; * tax incentives; * td/p rights
What is a damage? How damages can be estimated?
Direct damage
Victims (injured, dead, homeless)
Losses, physical damage
Induced damage
Victims (injured, dead, homeless)
Losses, physical damage
Indirect damage
(secondary?)
Social discomfort, psychological stress
Ripple effects: systemic damage
Community disruption
Long term damage
Economic impairment in given areas
Disaster phases according to Haas et al., Reconstruction
following disasters, 1977
Response
to crisis
financial
resources
invested,
people
employed
impact
emergency
1
10
first recovery
100
500
time in
weeks
reconstruction advanced reconstruction
Victims (injured, dead, homeless)
Direct damage
Losses, physical damage
Problems in getting the “right” information from global and national
databases
Provincia
Com une
Data
19/01/1996
Causa
Richiedente
Bene danneggiato
persistenti
precipitazioni
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
eventi calamitosi
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
privato
abitazioni
Lecco
Abbadia Lariana
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco 27/06/1997
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco
26/06/1998 precipitazioni
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco
26/06/1998 precipitazioni
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco
26/06/1998 precipitazioni
ente pubblico
strutture pubbliche
Lecco
Airuno
12/07/1995 acque meteoriche
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
Como
Albavilla
05/07/1995 nubifragio
ente pubblico
strutture pubbliche
Como
Albavilla
00/10/96
precipitazioni
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
Bergamo
Albino
12/11/1996
precipitazioni
Bergamo
Albino
12/11/1996
precipitazioni
Bergamo
Albino
25/06/1997
Bergamo
Albino
00/10/99
Como
Albiolo
12/07/1995 nubifragio
privato
attività produttive
ente pubblico e
abitazioni
privato
ente pubblico e
infrastrutture di trasporto
privato
nubifragio
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
fenomeni meteorici
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
Disaster loss data (courtesy of Claudio
Margottini)
Option 1
Disaster loss data:
Global/Regional data bases
National/local data bases
Option 2
Option 3?
Top
Up
Down
Bottom
Indipendent
Indipendent
(courtesy of Claudio Margottini)
GLOBAL
1.
EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database http://www.em-dat.net
2.
USGS Natural Hazards Support System (NHSS) http://nhss.cr.usgs.gov
(focused on US)
3.
NOAA Natural Hazards Viewer http://map.ngdc.noaa.gov/website/seg/hazards/viewer.htm
4.
Asia-Pacific Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities Atlas from Pacific Disaster
Centre, Hawaii - http://www.pdc.org/atlas/html/atlas-init.jsp
5.
Swiss Re: Worldwide Natural Hazard Atlas, CatNet™, http://www.swissre.com
6.
Munich Re: NATural Hazards Assessment Network, NATHAN,
www.munichre.com/nathan
7.
Dartmouth Flood Observatory
REGIONAL
NATIONAL/LOCAL LEVEL
(courtesy of Claudio Margottini)
Economic losses
Missing values
 Inconsistent methodology

Infrastructure Productive
Social Sectors Sectors
Sectors
Hazard
Year
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Hurricane
Flood
1999
2001
2001
2000
2000
Country
(106 US$)
(106 US$)
Turkey (Marmara)
2,187
India (Gujarat)
1,302
El Salvador
472
Belize
38
Mozambique
69
TOTAL

Relief costs
4,068
(106 US$)
Environment
and Other
(106 US$)
739
334
398
44
133
1,850
440
275
165
281
1,648
3,011
TOTAL
TOTAL
(106 US$) (106 US$)
0
4,776
8,500
55
2,131
4,600
68
1,212
1,300
407
655
265
5
488
15
535
9,262
14,680
(ECLAC & (EM-DAT)
IBRD)
Induced damage
Natural: landslides, lahars;
Victims (injured, dead, homeless)
Losses, physical damage
na-tech: contamination, explosions…
Indirect damage
(secondary?)
Social discomfort, psychological stress
Ripple effects: systemic damage
Community disruption
Long term damage
Economic impairment in given areas
Author
ECLAC
VAN DER
VEEN
ROSE
Direct damage
Destruction of
properties:
- public goods
(infrastructures)
- private goods
To be distinguished
between:
- repair costs
- substitution costs
And in the production
sector:
- machinery
- material stocks
Effects on services
provision:
Destruction of
machinery and
production sites
(material stock also)
Distinguishes between
primary and secondary in
direct damage
* primary: interruption of
economic fluxes
* secondary: ripple effects
in
interconnected systems
- missed payment for
utilities
- missed taxation
- increasing costs of
transportation
Damage to production
sites and to services
are the same as they
have an influence on
income and welfare
Physical damage to
objects
COCHRANE
In direct damage
Activity interruption of
services and economic
production due to ripple
effects and systemic links
with physically damaged
sectors (objects in the
sector)
Secondary damage
Effects on GNDP
Significant indicators:
- GNDP, regional more than
national
- import/export
- indebtment
- investment capacity
- public finance resources
Induced
damage
Long term
damage
Author
Direct damage
In direct damage
Secondary damage
Induced
damage
Destruction
of damage to
Effectsinon
services
Effects
on and
GNDP
Phyiscal
direct
damage to
Short
long term
properties:
provision:
indicators:
structures including:
people and activities Significant
consequences
due to the
- public *goods
- GNDP,
regional
more thanof
buildings,
in direct
consequences
(infrastructures)
payment production
for
national
INTERNATIONAL
* infrastructures - missed
* decreased
damage (particularly poor
goods plants utilities* decreased earning as-aimport/export
AGENCIES - private
* industrial
countries)
To
be
distinguished
missed
taxation
indebtment
(IIASA, WORLD * material stock
consequence of disaster
ECLAC
between:
costs
of
- investment capacity
BANK, UNITED
(primary material, - increasing
situation
(includine
- public finance resources
NATIONS) - repair costs
Final products) transportation
marketing)
- substitution costs
* damage to lifelines
And in the production
* increased energy etc.
sector:
costs
- machinery
- material
stocksto structures Damage to services
Damage
Damage to sectors not
physically stricken by fluxes
Destruction
of
Distinguishes between
the event
machinery and
primary and secondary in
production sites
direct damage
VAN
DER
(material stock also)
* primary: interruption of
GEOGRAPHERS
VEEN
economic fluxes
(HAAS et al.; DI
* secondary: ripple effects
SOPRA;
in
GEIPEL)
interconnected systems
Damage to production
sites and to services
ROSE
are the same as they
have an influence on
failure originating
income First
and welfare
a chain of failures
INDUSTRIAL
Physical damage to
Activity interruption of
RISK ANALYSIS
objects
services and economic
production due to ripple
COCHRANE
effects and systemic links
with physically damaged
Long term
damage
Damage that are
difficult to grasp
and that last
many years after
the event
(secondary
according to
international
agencies).
They may affect:
* economy;
* some activities
* some social
groups
directly impacted
physically or reduced
service capability
Chain of
damage up
to the “top
event”
Why damage assessment
is so important?
Because it is the key
for correct risk
assessment and
prevention
Before the event: estimate
potential losses due to the
combination of hazard and
vulnerability of exposed systems
After the event: being
complete, consider
systemic damage,
consider relation with
vulnerability
Provincia
After the event:
* Necessary to track expenses
* Necessary to distinguish
between repair and “new
projects”
* Necessary to rebuild reducing
pre-event vulnerability
Com une
Data
19/01/1996
Causa
Richiedente
Bene danneggiato
persistenti
precipitazioni
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
eventi calamitosi
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
privato
abitazioni
Lecco
Abbadia Lariana
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco 27/06/1997
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco
26/06/1998 precipitazioni
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco
26/06/1998 precipitazioni
Bergamo
Adrarra San Rocco
26/06/1998 precipitazioni
ente pubblico
strutture pubbliche
Lecco
Airuno
12/07/1995 acque meteoriche
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
Como
Albavilla
05/07/1995 nubifragio
ente pubblico
strutture pubbliche
Como
Albavilla
00/10/96
precipitazioni
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
Bergamo
Albino
12/11/1996
precipitazioni
Bergamo
Albino
12/11/1996
precipitazioni
Bergamo
Albino
25/06/1997
Bergamo
Albino
00/10/99
Como
Albiolo
12/07/1995 nubifragio
privato
attività produttive
ente pubblico e
abitazioni
privato
ente pubblico e
infrastrutture di trasporto
privato
nubifragio
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
fenomeni meteorici
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
ente pubblico
infrastrutture di trasporto
WHAT KIND OF PREVENTIVE
STRATEGIES CAN BE
FORESEEN AS A RESULT OF
THE ANALYSIS?
Cost benefit analysis of different
intervention options, comparing
costs of intervention with avoided
costs in the future.
Insurance policies need an estimate
of the maximum damage that can
be provoked by an event in order to
set premiums
Post-event damage assessment is
required to decide priorities in
funding and intervention
Problem: high
discount rates of future
damages
Without adequate
information the
assumption is:
expected
damage=total
damage
Generally a limited
estimate of physical
damage is actually
carried out
Damage assessment is not the only input to risk reduction measures
(hazard and vulnerability components can be addressed as well)
An example of damage assessment at the national scale: expected
damage to buildings due to earthquakes in Italy
HAZARD
Vulnerability
assessment.
Material type
Vulnerability
assessment :
age of
construction
Vulnerability
assessment :
expert
judgement
pre.-event damage estimate: damage to the built stock
pre.-event damage estimate: injured and death toll
Difference between probabilistic risk
analysis and scenario approach
Probabilistic risk
analysis
R= H* V*E
1
Hazard
Vulnerabity
Risk
HAZARD
INPUT
Scenarios:
choosing a specific
event and its characteristics
D = f( y, V) d(y)
0
Probabilistic risk analysis: what possible use?
Probabilistic risk
analysis
R= H* V*E
-
-
to get an idea of the general risk in
a givena area
set an insurance premium
Scenarios: what for?
HAZARD
INPUT
P1
-
HAZARD
INPUT
P2
HAZARD
INPUT
P3
Analyse a chain of failures and
losses in a complex environment
Build scenarios for civil
protection purposes
What types of damages can be expected?
Direct
physical
damage
Induced
physical
damage
Systemic
damage
Damage in
the long run
Definition of complete event scenario
Image of a possible or desirable
future given an initial stage
Analytically: a given path in a
Decision/event tree
Definition of simulation
Method to produce mental
experiments
A scenario to which the dynamic
Component has been added
Simulations
• Exercises: you reproduce the “real” event at
different scales (sometimes 1:1)
• Computer simulations: you produce a virtual
model in the computer
Scenarios
interference
Intervention
To

T1
T2
time
Descriptive: hypothetical evolution of the system
with no “external” designed change
• Outcome-oriented: probable evolution of the system
after designed decisions/actions
Scenarios
• Just qualitative: too general
Rigorously quantitative: risults are too specific
to provide the whole
picture
There is no universal rules to build scenarios,
you can rely only on techniques
Scenarios
• You need: a “productive” knowledge
• You have to select crucial no matter if “old”
•
•
knowledge
Building scenarios is an iterative exercise to
structure
and organise knowledge and information
Identify:
- crucial point at which alternative might arise
- key points in a chain of events
Simulating several scenarios
From the concept of individual losses to
the concept of chain of losses and failures
HAZARD
Severity
of the
seismic
event
OBJECTS
Pipes,
energy plants,
stations
Factories
Hospitals and
other facilities
for emergency
management
Residential
houses
People
PHYSICAL DIRECT
DAMAGE
damage to
pipes, nodes,
plants
Damage and
collapse of
buildings and loss
of machinery
Damage to buildings
and machinery for
search&rescue,
medical care
damage and
collapse of
buildings
Victims and
injured
INDUCED
HAZARDS
gas leakage, fires
water contamination
outleak of toxic
materials, induced
accidents
toxic release
from hospitals
INDUCED PHYSICAL
DAMAGE
damage due to
landslides and
other induced
hazards
Damage and loss
due to induced
hazards
Damage due
to induced
hazards
Damage due
to induced
hazards
Casualties due
to induced
hazards
SUB-SYSTEMS
Lifelines
Economic
Services to
deal with
emergency
SYSTEMIC DAMAGE
Interruption of the service,
due also to organizational
problems
Interruption of
production
Loss of workplace
and failure of
some industries
Failure or severe delays
in emergency operations
due also to organizational
problems
Loss of quality of
certain houses,
substitution of soci
classes in certain
neighborhoods
Residential
subsystem
Social
system
DAMAGE IN T
LONG-RUN
Homeless people,
people affected by
trauma
Abondonement
of some areas and
disruption of some
communities and
social links
HAZARD
INPUT
P1
HAZARD
INPUT
P2
HAZARD
INPUT
P3
A way to get scenarios closer to
probabilistic risk assessment is to
assign a degree of likelihood to each
scenario
DAMAGE SCENARIO

What vulnerable systems will be more responsible for
damage as a consequence of the deterministic input?

Scenario major advantage: it is a model which permits
to use the largest number of data of any quality that are
available

Through the scenario it is easier to evaluate the risk
reduction and mitigation obtained adopting alternative
strategies
Damage scenarios
Hazard
* Event frequency
* Context physical conditions:hydrological, geological, geomorphological
* Timing and area
Vulnerability and
exposure
* Human exposure
* Distance from hazard
* Vulnerability of the
population and the
context
Application in the Garda lake area in
Lombardia, at the border with Veneto
Example : damage scenario in a historic centre