Transcript PPT English - FOS Step 1C Threat Ranking

1C. Identify and Rate
Critical Threats
© Foundations of Success
Copyright and Use Terms
© Foundations of Success, 2012
FOS strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the
adaptive management process presented by the Conservation Measures Partnership’s
Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons AttributionNoncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.
To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, CA
94105, USA.
Under this license, you are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under
the following conditions:
•You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in
any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).
•You may not use this work for commercial purposes.
•If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the FOS logo, and you
may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one.
CMP Strategic Planning Process
1. Team, Scope, Vision
2. Conservation Targets
3. Threat Rating
4. Conceptual Model
CMP’s
Open
Standards
Project
Cycle
5. Goals
6. Strategies
7. Results Chains
8. Objectives
9. Indicators &
Monitoring plan
Step 1 Conceptualize
1. Conceptualize
·
·
·
·
Define initial project team
Define scope, vision & targets
Identify critical threats
Complete situation analysis
What is a Direct Threat?
Direct Threats: Human-induced
actions or events that directly
degrade one or more
Diver and
anchor
damage
conservation targets
Direct threats are:
Legal but
unsustainable
fishing by local
fishermen
Coral
Reefs
– usually human activities, but they can be
– natural phenomena altered by human activities or
whose impact is increased by human activities (e.g.,
global warming; tsunami that threatens the last
remaining population of an Asian rhino)
Examples of Direct Threats
Photo: Adrian Jones,
IAN Image Library
Examples of Direct Threats
Available at www.conservationmeasures.org
What Is the Difference Between a
Direct Threat and a Stress?
• Direct threat: an action taken by a human
that degrades a conservation or resource
management target. A direct threat has at
least one actor associated with it.
Example: residential development
• Stress: biophysical impact of that action
on the target. A single stress can be
caused by multiple direct threats.
Example: habitat fragmentation
What Is the Difference Between a
Direct Threat and a Stress?
Direct Threat
Example Stress(es)
Example Target Affected
Dams
Altered stream flows
Reduced reproductive success
of fish
Rivers and streams
Migratory fish
Unsustainable Erosion (Rivers and streams)
Logging
Sedimentation
Habitat destruction
Habitat fragmentation
Rivers and streams
Rivers and streams, Estuaries
Forests
Forests
Illegal Hunting Altered population structure
Monkeys, Rhinos
Unsustainable Sedimentation
Agriculture
Habitat destruction
Habitat fragmentation
Rivers and streams, Estuaries
Forests, Grasslands, Wetlands
Forests, Grasslands, Wetlands
Climate
change
Coral reefs
Shoreline habitat
Forests, Grasslands, Deserts
Coral bleaching
Rising sea levels
Reduced rainfall
Why Prioritize Threats??
• Limited resources
• Complex situations
• Applying a systematic methodology helps
you decide where to begin to work
How Do You Prioritize Direct Threats?
1. Identify your direct threats
2. If necessary, add stresses
3. Understand the criteria for threat rating
(Scope or Area, Severity, Irreversibility)
4. Apply the threat rating for each threattarget combination (using Miradi)
5. Understand and discuss summary ratings
Our Example:
Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands
Adapted from WWF Australia’s Wetlands Watch Project
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
1. Identify Direct Threats
2. If Necessary, Add Stresses
•
For clarity, it may be
necessary in some cases
to include stresses that
describe the biophysical
impact of the threat on
the target
3. Understand Criteria for Threat Rating
• Scope or Area: Spatial proportion of the
target affected within ten years with the
continuation of current circumstances and
trends.
– For ecosystems: proportion of the target's
occurrence.
– For species: proportion of the target’s
population
Your Turn: Which of these threats has
a larger scope?
Conservation Target: Wetland
• Filling 10% of the wetland to convert it to
•
agricultural land
Grazing cattle in more than half of the
wetland
3. Understand Criteria for Threat Rating
• Severity: Within the scope, the level of
damage with the continuation of current
circumstances and trends.
– For ecosystems: degree of destruction or
degradation of the target within the scope.
– For species: degree of reduction of the target
population within the scope.
Your Turn: Which of these threats has
higher severity?
Conservation Target: Wetland
• Filling 10% of the wetland to convert it to
•
agricultural land
Grazing cattle in more than half of the
wetland
3. Understand Criteria for Threat Rating
• Irreversibility: Degree to which the effects
of a threat can be reversed and the target
affected by the threat restored, if the threat
no longer existed.
Your Turn: Which of these threats has
the highest irreversibility?
For a forest ecosystem (conservation target):
• A logging road
• Selective logging done by helicopter
• Residential development
How Were These Criteria Selected?
THREAT
RATING
SYSTEM
CMP e-AM /
TNC Rapid
CAP
THREAT RATING CRITERIA
Scope
Severity
TNC 5-S
Scope
(Spatial)
Severity
BSP TRA
Area
Intensity
Urgency
Birdlife
Scope
Severity
Timing
WWF RAPPAM Extent
Impact
TNC’s SE
Division
Extent –
% Targets
Severity
WWF Root
Causes
Scope
Impact
WCS Living
Landscapes
Proportion
Severity
of Area
Irreversibility
Contribution
Irreversibility
Permanence
Probability
Trend
Permanence
Recovery
Time
Probability
Urgency
Example: Overgrazing in Fringing
Shrublands
4. Apply the Threat Rating for Each
Threat-Target Combination
Scope – proportion of the target expected to be affected by
the threat within 10 years
4 = Very High: The threat is likely to be pervasive
in its scope, affecting the target across all or most
(71-100%) of its occurrence/population.
3 = High: The threat is likely to be widespread in
its scope, affecting the target across much (3170%) of its occurrence/population.
2 = Medium: The threat is likely to be restricted in
its scope, affecting the target across some (1130%) of its occurrence/population.
1 = Low: The threat is likely to be very narrow in
its scope, affecting the target across a small
proportion (1-10%) of its occurrence/population.
4. Apply the Threat Rating for Each
Threat-Target Combination
Severity – level of damage to the target expected if current
trends continue
4 = Very High: Within the scope, the threat is likely to
destroy or eliminate the target, or reduce its population by
71-100% within ten years or three generations.
3 = High: Within the scope, the threat is likely to seriously
degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 3170% within ten years or three generations.
2 = Medium: Within the scope, the threat is likely to
moderately degrade/reduce the target or reduce its
population by 11-30% within ten years or three
generations.
1 = Low: Within the scope, the threat is likely to only
slightly degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population
by 1-10% within ten years or three generations.
4. Apply the Threat Rating for Each
Threat-Target Combination
Irreversibility – degree to which target can be restored if
threat removed
4 = Very High: Effects of the threat cannot be
reversed and it is very unlikely the target can be
restored, and/or would take >100 years to achieve.
3 = High: Effects of the threat can technically be
reversed and the target restored, but it is not
practically affordable and/or it would take 21-100
years to achieve.
2 = Medium: The effects of the threat can be
reversed and the target restored with a reasonable
commitment of resources and/or within 6-20 years.
1 = Low: The effects of the threat are easily
reversible and the target can be easily restored at a
relatively low cost and/or within 0-5 years.
Miradi Uses Rules for Rolling Up
Criteria
Scope + Severity = Threat Magnitude
Severity
Scope
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very High
Very High
High
Medium
Low
High
High
High
Medium
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Threat Magnitude + Irreversibility = Threat Rating
Magnitude
Irreversibility
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very High
Very High
Very High
Very High
High
High
Very High
High
High
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Low
Low
5. Understand and Discuss the
Summary Ratings
5. Understand and Discuss the
Summary Ratings
Miradi Roll-up Rules:
3-5-7 Rule
3 Highs = 1 Very High
5 Medium = 1 High
7 Low = 1 Medium
2 Prime Rule
Miradi Indicates the Summary Threat
Ratings in the Model
Threat Rating for TNC’s Mesoamerican
Reef Project
Threats
Coral
Reefs
Beaches &
Seagrasses
Dunes
Estuaries &
Whale
Mangroves Coastal
SPAG's
Shark
Lagoons
Summary
Threat
Rating
Global Climate Change
Very High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
-
-
High
Inappropriate aquatic tourism practices
Very High
Low
-
-
Medium
Low
High
High
Wastewater contamination
High
High
-
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
Tourism development
Medium
High
High
High
-
-
-
High
Sedimentation
Urban coastal development
Overfishing and inappropriate fishing
practices
Agrochemicals
Navigation (anchor damage, oil spills,
wounds from boats)
High
High
-
Low
High
-
-
High
-
-
High
High
High
-
-
High
High
Medium
-
-
Medium
High
-
High
High
High
Low
Low
Medium
-
-
High
High
Low
Medium
Low
Medium
-
Medium
Medium
Transportation infrastructure
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
-
-
Medium
Solid waste
-
-
High
-
-
-
Medium
Medium
Invasive species
High
-
Low
-
-
-
-
Medium
Cattle grazing
Shrimp aquaculture
Natural disasters
Mining
-
-
-
High
-
-
-
Medium
-
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
-
-
Medium
-
Medium
Medium
-
-
-
-
Medium
-
-
Low
-
Medium
-
-
Low
Summary Target Rating
Very High
High
High
High
High
Medium
Medium
Very High
Instructions
Identify and Rate Your Critical Threats
• Identify the direct threats affecting each of your
conservation targets and link them to the targets
in the Diagram view of Miradi.
• Use the Threat Rating view of Miradi to do your
rating.
– Where you lack information, make your best guess at
the rating, but be sure to note any questions or
concerns you have.
– Review Miradi’s summary ratings for each threat, for
each target and for the overall site.
•
Prepare to present your results (briefly).