Transcript AOSS_NRE_480_L20_GeoEngineering_20140403.ppt

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2014
April 1, 2014
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14
• Something I am playing with
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
• Assignment
– Emailed
– Posted
Politics of
Dismissal Entry
Model
Uncertainty
Description
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
Outline
• Remembering Carbon Dioxide
• Geoengineering
• News Story from today
– Michigan Law CO2 and Oil recovery
About carbon dioxide (CO2)
CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere. In ocean transfer of
CO2 between CO2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic
acid.
It takes a long time for it to be removed; there is a lot of
cycling. From a human and policy perspective carbon
dioxide is “forever.”
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary increase
comes from
burning fossil
fuels – coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more
information
Where is the Increase Coming From?
IPCC 2007
Web links to some CO2 data
• NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division
– Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas
– Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide
• Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center
– Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
• NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean
What happens to this CO2
• There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year
emitted
– 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere
– 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean
– 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems
• Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better
quantification
– Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008
Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework
It’s not an either / or argument.
Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2
Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.
Outline
• Remembering Carbon Dioxide
• Geoengineering
– GeoMIP (Geoengineering Modeling
Intercomparison Project)
Geoengineering
The intentional large-scale manipulation of the global
environment. The term has usually been applied to
proposals to manipulate the climate with the primary
intention of reducing undesired climatic change caused
by human influences. Geoengineering schemes seek to
mitigate the effect of fossil-fuel combustion on the
climate without abating fossil fuel use; for example, by
placing shields in space to reduce the sunlight incident
on the Earth.(D. Keith,1999. Geoengineering.
Encyclopaedia of Global Change. New York)
Why?
• Why Study Geoengineering?
– We need to know what our options are and
possible consequence of what we might do
• Change our energy too slowly to avoid dangerous
climate change
• Ready for planetary emergency
In context…
• What we are doing now is geoengineering without
“intent.”
• When we decide that we will limit warming to 2 degrees
C, then we are deciding to geoengineer.
Changes in
the sun
What can we change?
Things that
change
reflection
Things that
change
absorption
If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.
Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange
Carbon and Oceanic Exchange
Geoengineering Schematic
Keith_Geoengineering_Nature_2001
Keith_Geoengineering_History_Prospect_AnnRevEneEnvir_2000
An incomplete history of Geo-engineering
• Good reviews
– Keith_Geoengineering_History_Prospect_AnnRevEneEnvir_2000
– Spencer Weart History
• In 1905 Arrhenius discussed a “virtuous circle” in which CO2
emissions would warm the climate, changing the northern limits of
agriculture and enhancing productivity.
• Cloud seeding efforts started in 30s and 40s
• John Von Neumann deliberate modification of weather for civilian and
military use
– 1953 Presidents Advisory Committee on weather control with
focus on “rainmaking”
– 1955 in interview in Fortune magazine JVN speculated that
“Microscopic layers of colored matter spread on an icy surface, or
in the atmosphere above one, could inhibit the reflection-radiation
process, melt the ice, and change the local climate
• Budyko in Soviet Union modification to improve agriculture and
ocean commerce
Geoengineering history II
• By 1970s US gov spending $20M/yr on weather modification
research. Substantial amounts also spent in USSR on this.
• Circa 1974, ... Budyko calculated that if global warming ever
became a serious threat, we could counter it with just a few
airplane flights a day in the stratosphere, burning sulfur to make
aerosols that would reflect sunlight away.
• 1977, National Academy Report on Geoengineering, ...
• Lamb, Hubert H. (1971). "Climate-Engineering Schemes to Meet
a Climatic Emergency." Earth-Science Reviews said
– "an essential precaution is to wait until a scientific system for
forecasting the behavior of the natural climate... has been
devised and operated successfully for, perhaps, a hundred
years.“
• 1992, National Academy Report on Mitigation and Adaptation
Royal Society 2009
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Keith_Geoengineering_Nature_2001
Ocean Iron Fertilization
•
•
•
•
Introduction of iron (limiting nutrient)
into the upper ocean to simulate a
phytoplankton (algae) bloom.
Phytoplankton require carbon
dioxide to grow.
In theory, the phytoplankton then die
and sink to the ocean bottom, thus
removing carbon from the
atmosphere.
Naturally occurs in areas of
upwelling or when nutrients are
carried to the ocean (wind, rivers,
icebergs, etc.).
South Atlantic
NASA
Ocean Iron Fertilization – Governance Issues
• There has been 10-20 experiments over the last few
decades.
• These experiments have resulted in mixed results.
• Most recent is the LOHAFEX trail, a joint research
venture between the German and Indian to fertilize a 300
sq. km patch of ocean in the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
• LOHAFEX came under scrutiny for the way in which the
German Research Minister interpreted the UN
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and London
Convention Treaty (a treaty on the dumping of waste in
the ocean).
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
MOIC
Synthetic Trees: Air Capture
Global Research Technologies
Royal Society 2009
Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
Keith_Geoengineering_Nature_2001
Solar Radiation Management
Space-based
reflectors
Stratospheric
aerosols
Tropopause
Cloud
brightening
Surface albedo
modification
Earth surface
Alan Robock - Rutgers
Reflectors in Space
http://io9.com/5665736/blotting-out-the-sun-to-slow-down-global-warming-could-be-outlawed
Stratospheric Aerosols - Rasch Study
• Injection of SO2 at 25km in tropics will form
sulfate aerosol. This will act to cool the planet
• Estimates based on Crutzen (2006) suggest
1-2Tg S/year (as sulfate) would suffice
– 2-4% of current anthropogenic surface emissions
– Cost ~$25Billion/yr ($25/capita/yr in the affluent
world)
 1-3 W/m2 reduction reduction in incoming solar
radiation
Rasch_Sulfate_Size_GRL_2008
Global Averaged Annual Averaged Surface
Temperature change
Rasch_Sulfate_Size_GRL_2008
Global Precipitation
Rasch_Sulfate_Size_GRL_2008
More Reflected
Solar Flux
Stratospheric aerosols
(Lifetime  1-3 years)
Less
Upward
IR Flux
backscatter
H2S  H SO
2
4
SO2
CO2
H2O
absorption
(near IR)
Solar Heating
IR
Heating
Heterogeneous Less
O3 depletion Solar Heating
emission
IR Cooling
absorption (IR) emission
forward scatter
Ash
Reduced
Direct
Flux
Enhanced
Diffuse
Flux
Tropospheric aerosols
(Lifetime  1-3 weeks)
SO2  H2SO4
Indirect Effects
on Clouds
Alan Robock
Department of Environmental Sciences
Effects
on cirrus
clouds
Less Total
Solar Flux
More
Downward
IR Flux
Satellite Image
This image of ship
tracks was taken by
the Moderate
Resolution Imaging
Spectro-radiometer
(MODIS) on
NASA’s Terra
satellite on May 11,
2005.
http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/Newsroo
m/NewImages/Images/ShipTracks_TMO_2
005131_lrg.jpg
Sea Salt: Latham and Salter
Impact of Brighter Marine Stratocumulus
Clouds
Precipitation change
for geoengineering
with brighter marine
stratocumulus
clouds.
Damage to Amazon
would not be
reversible.
(Jones et al., 2009)
Making the surface brighter?
Oleson et al. (2010) found minimal global
impacts of urban white roofs.
Oleson, K., G. Bonan, and J. Feddema, 2010: Effects of white roofs on urban
temperature in a global climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03701,
doi:10.1029/2009GL042194.
http://www.treehugger.com/white-roof.jpg
Doughty et al. (2011) found leaf
brightening would have minimal effect.
Doughty, C. E., C.B. Field, and A. M. S. McMillan, 2011: Can crop albedo
be increased through the modification of leaf trichomes, and could this
cool regional climate? Climatic Change, 104, 379–387,
doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9936-0
Seitz (2011) proposed bubbles to brighten
the ocean, but Robock (2011) found many
issues with proposal.
Seitz, R., 2011: Bright water: hydrosols, water conservation and climate
change. Climatic Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9965-8
Robock, Alan, 2011: Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble. An editorial comment.
Climatic Change, in press.
Seitz (2011), Fig. 1
Alan Robock - Rutgers
Thinking of local geoengineering
• White roof projects
• Jay Golden Design and Sustainability
Where do we go from here?
•
•
•
•
•
Governance
Safety
Costs
Uncertainty
Does it actually solve the problem?
Comparison - Evaluation
Royal Society 2009
Royal Societies Recommendations:
• Increase efforts to mitigate climate change (reduce to 50% of 1990
emissions by 2050).
• Further research and development of geoengineering options (find
more low risk methods).
• International collaboration and governance frameworks to develop
and implement geoengineerng technologies.
• Methods should be characterized as CDR or SRM.
• Geoengineering methods are not a substitute for mitigation, and
should only be considered as part of a wider package.
• Methods should consider: legality, effectiveness, timeliness,
impacts, costs, funding, reversibility, etc.
• Governance needs to be explored in more detail.
Royal Society 2009
Government Accountability Office
• Has produced a number of reports:
• Preliminary Observations on Geoengineering
Science, Federal Efforts, and Governance Issues
(2010)
• A Coordinated Strategy Could Focus Federal
Geoengineering Research and Inform Governance
Efforts (2010)
• Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future
Directions, and Potential Responses (2011)
GAO Technology Assessment
GAO
GAO Technology Assessment
Taking early action
GAO
Example: Governance – Intellectual
Property
• US Patents in ‘Exotic’ genoengineering
techniques (not including CCS):
• Most patents are ‘method’ patents, and
broad patent language is already being
granted.
• Often from one person/company
Ford School Report for GAO
Analysis & Commentary
• Robock_Geoengineering_Bad_BullAtomSci_2008
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Regional versus global effects
Impacts on precipitation
Ocean acidification
Atmospheric chemistry / ozone depletion
Acid rain
Impacts on agriculture
Unexpected consequences
Psychological Impacts
…
Conclusions?
• Highly controversial
–
–
–
–
–
Ethical
Scientific
Practical
Psychological
Liability
• Possible to reduce temperature rise  perhaps
sea level rise
– Large regional effect but “better” unmitigated
greenhouse gas increase
• Impacts on precipitation, weather, agriculture,
etc. neither managed nor known
Problem Solving Figures
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Structure of Problem Solving
(http://glisaclimate.org/home )
Skill Set
• Analysis
– Distinguish between facts and inferences
• Evaluation / Judgment
– What is the quality of the knowledge?
• Synthesis
– How do pieces fit together?
Deconstructing how to think about projects.
1) Describe what is
in the picture. What
are the facts? Make
an inventory of what
is known. Make an
inventory of what is
not known.
4) What to do?
Consequences?
Options?
2) Analysis: How
credible is the
information? What
is the integrity of the
reporting? How
complete is the
picture? Is there
derived knowledge?
…
3) Does it matter?
Impact.
Consequences.
Relations
Why?
Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
• The details of the problem often de-correlate
pieces of the problem.
– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based
experts, and the ability to generalize.
– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
• The consideration of the system as a whole
causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
Development of International Approach to Climate Change
1988
1992
1995
1997
2001
2009
2007
IPCC
established
Framework
Convention
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto
Protocol
Copenhagen
Accord
Scientific
assessment
Non-binding
aim
Binding
emissions
target
Keep warming
less than 2 C
Iconic and Fundamental Figures
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Sun-Earth System in Balance
SUN
EARTH
PLACE AN
INSULATING
BLANKET
AROUND
EARTH
The addition to the
blanket is CO2
FOCUS ON
WHAT IS
HAPPENING
AT THE
SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
Temperature and CO2: The last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
The Earth System
SUN
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
ICE
(cryosphere)
OCEAN
LAND
Radiation Balance Figure
Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)
1998
Climate Forcing
(-2.7, -0.6)
2001
Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001)
(-3.7, 0.0)