Transcript AOSS_NRE_480_L14_Energy_Use_20140311.ppt

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2014
March 11, 2014
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14
• Something I am playing with
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
• Assignment
– Emailed
– Posted
Politics of
Dismissal Entry
Model
Uncertainty
Description
Key references and websites
• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy
use and future trends.
• International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/ works
to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28
member countries and beyond
• The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. (link)
– This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy
sector while still achieving economic growth
• This lecture is a little dated … I will point out how.
– Energy use is changing enormously from year to year
– Only constant is  keeps going up  fossil fuels dominate
Today
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Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
Current sources of energy
Emissions from economic sectors
Energy consumption by end use
External costs to energy use (besides climate
change)
Summary Points: Science
Correlated Observations
CO2 and Temperature Observed to be
strongly related on long time scales (>
100 years)
CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be
strongly related on short time scales (<
10 years)
Land Use / Land Change
Other Greenhouse Gases
Aerosols
Internal Variability
Theory / Empirical Evidence
CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near
Surface
Theory / Conservation Principle
Mass and Energy Budgets
 Concept of “Forcing”
Validation
Prediction
Earth Will
Warm
Attribution
Consequences
Observations
CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil
Fuels
Feedbacks
Air Quality
“Abrupt” Climate Change
Response: Think about this for a minute
• What are the responses that make sense?
–
–
–
–
Regulation
Life time responsibility for product – the coke can
Improve use of current resources – efficiency
Integrate development and climate change - adaptation
• What might motivate those responses?
–
–
–
–
Potential costs
Make the cost right … do not deny “use”
Cost of inefficiency
Social justice issues
• What might hinder those responses?
–
–
–
–
Cost – benefit
Lack of flexibility
Social justice issues
Economy versus environment
Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Emissions are growing faster than expected
Source: Manning et al. 2010
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Where do emissions come from?
People
Population
P
Engage in economic activity that
GDP per capita
GDP/P
Uses energy from
Energy intensity of the economy
TE/GDP
Carbon emitting generation
Carbon intensity of energy
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP
-----P
*
C/TE
TE
* C
------GDP
TE
The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
Factor
Lever
Approach to Policy
P
Population
Less people
Population management
GDP/P
GDP per capita
Smaller economy
Limit generation of wealth
TE/GDP
Energy intensity
Increase efficiency
Do same or more with less energy
Carbon intensity
Switch energy sources
Generate energy with less emissions
C/TE
Carbon emissions = C =
P * GDP
-----P
*
TE
---GDP
* C
---TE
GDP Technology
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
• GDP/capita is considered the “societal success”
• Energy use increases have been driven by
growth in population and GDP/capita.
Pielke Jr. argues
• The need for technology to make solutions
possible.
• Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources,
desire for economic growth makes energy use
an imperative
• Must go
– From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
– To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between
energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of
fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas
World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003
*
megaton oil equivalent
Source: International Energy Agency 2005
Update from IEA
• CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2013
– 1971: About 5,500 Mtoe, 86% Fossil Fuels
– 2011: About 13,000 Mtoe, 80 % Fossil Fuels
• Emissions by category
–
–
–
–
83% energy production
8% agricultural
6% industrial processes
3% waste
2011 Energy Supply and CO2 Emissions
13 111 Megaton oil equivalent
Oil 32%
Oil 35%
Coal 29% Gas 21%
Coal 44%
Other
18%
Gas
20%
Portion of Energy
Production
1%
Portion of CO2
Emission
Source: International Energy Agency
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption 2013
Context: Growth
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
10
cement and
gas flaring
8
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2
deforestation
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Today
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
Current sources of energy
Emissions from economic sectors
Energy consumption by end use
External costs to energy use (besides climate
change)
World Carbon Emissions
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
10
cement and
gas flaring
8
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2
deforestation
0
1850
1900
•
1950
CO2 emissions arise from:
1. Cement production (~5 %)
2. Deforestation (~20 %)
3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %)
2000
75%
CO2 source: Deforestation
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
10
Fossil fuels
8
6
4
Deforestation
Total
cement and
gas flaring
320
200 GtC
gas
520
Compare with 590 GtC in
the preindustrial
atmosphere
oil
coal
2
deforestation
•
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:
– It accounts for ~20 % of current CO2 emissions
– It accounted for ~35 % of total CO2 emissions since preindustrial times.
Context: Energy and Climate Change
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
• Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
Energy and Economic Success
What countries are missing from
this figure?
What has changed since 2005?
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)
Today
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Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
Current sources of energy
Emissions from economic sectors
Energy consumption by end use
External costs to energy use (besides climate
change)
In what forms do we consume energy?
• Fossil fuels:
– Coal
– Oil
– Natural gas
• Other:
– Nuclear
– Hydro
– Renewables
(mostly
biomass)
– ‘Hydrogen’
Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004
Energy sources: Coal
• Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all
fossil fuels
• Accounts for ~29% of world CO2
emissions
• Used mostly for electricity and for home
heating (especially in developing
nations)
• Coal burning emits significant amounts
of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
• Proven reserves are almost endless
(~250 years)
Energy sources: Oil
• Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per
unit energy.
• Accounts for ~30 % of world CO2
emissions.
• Dominates transportation (cars), but also
used for home/building heating
• Proven reserves are ~40 years of
conventional oil. After that, another ~100
years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.)
• U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major
national security concern
Energy sources: Natural gas
• Least polluting of the fossil fuels:
emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per
unit energy
• Accounted for ~16% of world CO2
emissions
• Used for electricity generation and
home heating (same as coal)
• Proven reserves are another ~65
years
Methane Leakage and Fracking
Trend of fossil fuel use
• In ‘businessas-usual’
fossil fuels will
continue to
dominate
world energy
• Currently
rapid increase
of coal use,
globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Today
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Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
Current sources of energy
Emissions from economic sectors
Energy consumption by end use
External costs to energy use (besides climate
change)
Emissions from economic sectors
• Industrial: creating
products from raw
materials (mining,
cement, agriculture)
US energy use by sector
• Commercial: stores,
municipalities, etc.
• Transportation: cars,
planes, ships
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Transportation sector
• Sector with fastest
growing CO2 emissions
in US
U.S. energy consumption
by sector
• Dominated by oil and
road transport
• Accounts for ~23 % of
worldwide and ~32 % of
US CO2 emissions
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Buildings sector
• Both residential and
commercial (stores,
municipalities, etc.)
U.S. energy consumption
by sector
• Mostly electricity,
except for fuel use
for space heating
• Accounts for ~39 %
of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Industrial sector
• Includes mining,
refining, factories, etc.
• The fraction of energy
used by this sector
generally decreases as
countries become more
developed.
• Also includes
agriculture…
U.S. energy consumption
by sector
U.S. industrial energy consumption
by fuel
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Agriculture: A different slice
Agriculture
• Use of direct fossil fuel energy
relatively low: ~3–4.5 % in
industrialized countries.
– Half of used energy and direct
CO2 emissions are from fertilizer
production (Haber-Bosch
process)
• BUT… big contributor to
deforestation and land use
change.
• Livestock rearing is most
significant contributor
Agriculture: Livestock
• 2006 report of Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the UN:
– “The livestock sector emerges as one
of the top two or three most significant
contributors to the most serious
environmental problems, at every scale
from local to global.”
• Important economic sector:
– Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor)
– Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land
surface through grazing (26 %) and
feed production
• 33 % of arable land for feed production
Agriculture: Livestock
• Increasing demand for livestock
products (meat, dairy) is one of
main drivers of deforestation!
– 70 % of deforested land in Amazon
is occupied by pastures.
– Feedcrops cover most of remaining
30 %.
– Livestock-induced deforestation
emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared
to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use
and ~2 GtC total deforestation)
• Livestock demand increasing
rapidly with increasing world
wealth (India, China). Should
more than double by 2050.
Agriculture: Livestock
• Responsible for ~18 % of CO2
equivalent GHG emissions (so
including N2O and CH4)
 Same share as entire US!
– 9 % of world CO2 emissions
• Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer
• Deforestation and land use changes for
feed production and grazing (bulk!)
• Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest
anthropogenic source)
• Animal manure
– 65 % of N2O
• Mostly from animal manure deposited on
soils, with subsequent N2O emission
10
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
– 37 % of world CH4 emissions
cement and
gas flaring
8
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2
deforestation
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Today
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
Current sources of energy
Emissions from economic sectors
Energy consumption by end use
External costs to energy use (besides climate
change)
Energy consumption by end use
• The three main end
uses of fossil fuel are:
– Electric power plants
(~40 % of CO2 emissions)
– Transportation (~23 % of
CO2 emissions)
– Direct use of fuel (industrial
processes and heating for
buildings) (~37 % of CO2
emissions)
• So ~40 % CO2 emissions
from electricity, 60 % from
fuels
World CO2 emissions
by fuel and end use
Socolow and Pacala , 2006
Energy consumption by end use: Electricity
• Two thirds of
world electricity
production
comes from
fossil fuels
• One third from
hydro and
nuclear power
Cost of Electricity
Cost of
electricity in US
in 2002
Electricity generation by source,
U.S., 2006
Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009
• Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
• Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive
What is changing in this balance ?
Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use
• ‘Direct fuel use’:
– Transportation (oil)
– Heating in buildings
– Industrial processes
• Dominated by oil
• No real alternatives for
transportation fuels
– Biofuels do not mitigate
CO2 emission
– Future switch to
renewable-powered
hydrogen and/or electric
cars?
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006
Today
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
CO2 emissions: where do they come from?
Current sources of energy
Emissions from economic sectors
Energy consumption by end use
External costs to energy use (besides climate
change)
Major External Costs
• Public Health
• National Security
• Environment
– Air quality – warming tension
Energy and climate (besides greenhouse warming)
• Burning of fossil
fuels is important
source of particulate
matter (aerosols),
which helps cool
climate by:
– Scattering
radiation
– Seeding clouds
• Cleaning up ‘dirty
coal’ might thus not
be good for
climate…
Summary Points: U.S. Energy
Energy Appendix
• Original Material from Jasper Kok
CO2 source: Cement Production
•
Cement is produced from
limestone, which is mostly calcite
(CaCO3).
•
For production of cement:
CaCO3  CaO + CO2
•
Production of cement emits CO2
for two reasons:
1. CO2 emitted directly
2. Production process takes place at
high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC)
which requires a lot of energy.
•
Accounts for ~5 % of CO2
emissions worldwide
CO2 source: Deforestation
•
Massive deforestation occurred
– In developed nations during Industrial
Revolution (driven by need for cheap
energy)
– In developing (tropical) nations right
now, mostly in response to demand for
cropland, pastures, and wood.
•
When forests are cut down, CO2 is released
from:
– Carbon in trees, plants, etc.
(conversion to wood products
preserves only small fraction)
– Carbon in the soil (roots, humus)
•
Forests absorb “excess” CO2, since
elevated CO2 stimulates growth
– Removal of forests removes this
natural buffer against climate change
CO2 source: Fossil Fuel Use
• Sharp increase (16-fold!) in world energy consumption
over past century
– Why did this occur?
Energy and Economic Success
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
• GDP/capita is considered the “societal success”
• Energy use increases have been driven by
growth in population and GDP/capita.
Energy and population
• Strong population
increase since
pre-industrial
times!
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
World GDP/capita
• Also strong
growth in
GDP/capita!
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
Energy and GDP
Energy use per capita and per dollar GDP in
U.S. (index, 1980 = 1)
• Energy/unit GDP
decreases as societies
become more
developed
 shift from
manufacturing to services
(root cause of Michigan’s
economic trouble)
• But total energy use
per capita does not
decrease.
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2008
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person)*(energy/unit GDP)
• Main drivers of rapid increase in energy consumption have
been increases in population and GDP/capita
• This is why climate change problem is so difficult:
– We can’t affect population (possible, but politically incorrect…)
– Reducing GDP to combat climate change is also not feasible
• But reduction in energy per unit GDP occurs with shift to
knowledge-based economy (developed world now).
• Still, reduction in world energy use not realistic.
– To reduce CO2 emissions, need to drastically lower CO2 emitted per
unit energy, especially since we want economy to keep growing.
Current sources
of energy:
Fossil fuels
Energy sources: Coal
• Emits most CO2 per unit energy of all
fossil fuels
• Accounts for ~29% of world CO2
emissions
• Used mostly for electricity and for home
heating (especially in developing
nations)
• Coal burning emits significant amounts
of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
• Proven reserves are almost endless
(~250 years)
Coal is major source of air pollution
• Coal emits sulfur and smoke
particulates
• “Great London smog” of 1952 led to
thousands of casualties.
– Caused by cold inversion layer
 pollutants didn’t disperse +
Londoners burned large amounts of
coal for heating
• Demonstrated impact of pollutants and
played role in passage of “Clean Air
Acts” in the US and Western Europe
Coal use in the US
Coal use by
sector in US
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
• After “Great London smog” of 1952, decrease in residential coal
use
• Use of coal for electricity has been growing consistently because
coal is cheap and abundant, and combustion technology is
readily available
Energy sources: Oil
• Emits ~75 % of coal CO2 emissions per
unit energy.
• Accounts for ~30 % of world CO2
emissions.
• Dominates transportation (cars), but also
used for home/building heating
• Proven reserves are ~40 years of
conventional oil. After that, another ~100
years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.)
• U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major
national security concern
Energy sources: Natural gas
• Least polluting of the fossil fuels:
emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO2 per
unit energy
• Accounted for ~16% of world CO2
emissions
• Used for electricity generation and
home heating (same as coal)
• Proven reserves are another ~65
years
Trend of fossil fuel use
• In ‘businessas-usual’
fossil fuels will
continue to
dominate
world energy
• Currently
rapid increase
of coal use,
globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Reserves of fossil fuels
Fuel type:
Unconventional
reserves (years)
Oil
Proven
reserves
(years)
41
Coal
251
210
Natural Gas
64
360
125
Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004
• We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon!
• ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed
methane, etc..
– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine
Current sources
of energy:
nuclear and
renewables
Energy sources: Nuclear
• Accounts for ~6 % of world energy
consumption and ~ 19 % of US
electricity generation
Nuclear share of electricity
generation in U.S.
• Used only for electricity generation
• No CO2 emissions from plant
operating, but some from uranium
mining (~10 - 20 % of coal emissions
per kWh)
Nuclear power plant licenses
issued in U.S.
Chernobyl
• Concerns about nuclear waste
storage and nuclear weapons
proliferation
• Hardly growing in most of developed
world.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Energy sources: Renewables
• Mostly from
biomass (wood),
hydro power, and
biofuels.
• Contribution from
other renewables
(geothermal,
solar, wind,
tides) are small.
Renewable energy as share of
total energy in U.S., 2006
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Energy ‘sources’: Hydrogen
• Hydrogen as a fuel is often misunderstood:
– Hydrogen is NOT a source of energy!
– It’s merely an energy carrier, much like
electricity
• Hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water:
 This requires electricity
• Hydrogen burns cleanly
• Hydrogen’s significance is that:
1. It can be produced using renewable energy,
which would displace fossil fuel.
2. Emissions are easier to mitigate, because they
occur at a central location rather than individual
cars.
• In the absence of policies including cost of
climate change, hydrogen would be generated
using cheap coal-generated electricity
Reserves of fossil fuels (repeat)
Fuel type:
Unconventional
reserves (years)
Oil
Proven
reserves
(years)
41
Coal
251
210
Natural Gas
64
360
125
Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004
• We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon!
• ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed
methane, etc..
– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine
Electricity generation:
Switch to renewables in future?
• So in ‘business-as-usual’
abundant, cheap, fossil fuelderived electricity will likely be
available until the end of the
century.
• This cheap electricity can also
be used to produce hydrogen
fuel, should oil demand exceed
supply.
• Renewables will thus not play
important role until
– Externalities are taken into
account (taxes, cap-and-trade)
– There are technological
breakthroughs (solar PV, fusion)
Energy and National Security
• U.S. imports most of its oil
US oil trade
– This is a liability, as some of that oil
comes from Middle East (though not as
much as one would think!)
– Past (and most of current) U.S. energy
policy revolves around energy security
– not climate change mitigation
• Majority of remaining oil in Middle East
Origin of US oil imports, 2006
Energy and Public Health
• The burning of fossil fuels is the dominant source of
air pollution, emitting
– Carbon monoxide (CO), which is toxic and can cause
headaches and exacerbate heart disease
– Nitrogen oxides (NOx), which causes respiratory
problems and leads to smog
– Sulfur dioxide (SO2), which produces acid rain and smog
– Particulate matter, which causes respiratory problems
– Mercury emissions, which are mostly taken in through
fish, where they bioaccumulate.
• The overall cost of air pollution on human health is
large (~6 % of deaths in EU) but very difficult to
quantify
Iconic and Fundamental Figures
Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Sun-Earth System in Balance
SUN
EARTH
PLACE AN
INSULATING
BLANKET
AROUND
EARTH
The addition to the
blanket is CO2
FOCUS ON
WHAT IS
HAPPENING
AT THE
SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
Data and more information
Temperature and CO2: The last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
The Earth System
SUN
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
ICE
(cryosphere)
OCEAN
LAND
Radiation Balance Figure
Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)
1998
Climate Forcing
(-2.7, -0.6)
2001
Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001)
(-3.7, 0.0)