Transcript AOSS_NRE_480_L17_Problem_Policy_Argument_20120313.ppt

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
March 13, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• Projects:
– First Meetings:
•
•
•
•
Education: 23 February
Cities: 8 March
Regional: 13 March
Universities: 13 March
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
Reading Response: Due March 15, 2012
• Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization
Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link)
• Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate
Central, 2011 (link)
•
Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do
not need to be elaborate, but they should also not summarize the reading.
They should be used by you as think pieces to refine your questions and
insight from the readings. They must be submitted via CTools at least two
hours before the start of lecture for the relevant readings.
Wedges on the Web
• Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton
University
Today
• Structure of problem solving
• Policy Interface 1
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2
– Global Mitigation
• Elements of the Political Argument
Granularity
• No matter how we cut through this
problem we come to the conclusion that
there is a lot of granularity within the
problem. This granularity represents
complexity, which must be used to
develop a portfolio of solutions rather than
to classify the problem as intractable.
The previous viewgraphs have introduced
“granularity”
• This is a classic short-term versus long-term
problem.
– Ethics
– Economics
– Reaction versus anticipation
• Similarly, regional versus global
• Rich and poor
• Competing approaches
– Mitigation versus adaptation
– Transportation versus Electrical Generation
– This versus that
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Structure of Problem Solving
(http://glisaclimate.org/home )
Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
• The details of the problem often de-correlate
pieces of the problem.
– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based
experts, and the ability to generalize.
– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
• The consideration of the system as a whole
causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Problem Solving
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Unification
Integration
Today
• Structure of problem solving
• Policy Interface 1
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2
– Global Mitigation
• Elements of the Political Argument
Policy
• A natural reaction to greenhouse gas
emissions is to look to government, to the
development of policy to address the
problems that we are faced with.
Policy
• What do we look to policy to accomplish?
– Some common, relevant purposes of policy
• Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or disincentives for
behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.)
• Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with
penalties if the bounds are exceeded.
• Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior or cost that
is currently external.
– A more abstract point of view
• Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable
and what is not.
• Interface with the law?
• Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances
in which we run our economy.
Policy-climate science interface (1)
• It is sensible to look at governance and policy to address
climate change
– It’s a “greater good” problem
– It relates to natural resources and waste from the use of natural
resources
– It impacts economic and national security
– There is precedence (Ocean and Acid Rain)
• Given the relation to energy and wealth it is natural to
expect there will not to be a “one size fits all solution” for
climate change.
– One size fits all is one of the most common traps that
“managers” and “leaders” fall into.
• Feeds polarization and rhetoric
• Guided to one size by political interests
Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates
policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge
that is Predicted
1) Uncertainty always exists
2) New uncertainties will be revealed
3) Uncertainty can always be used to
keep policy from converging
Policy
Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates
policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge
that is Predicted
Policy
1) Uncertainty always exists
2) New uncertainties will be revealed
3) Uncertainty can always be used to keep
policy from converging
What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to
give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.
A Premise
• Climate change problem cannot be solved
in isolation.
• Requires integration with all elements of
society.
– Requires identification of reasons to motivate
us to take action
• Apparent benefit
• Excess Risk
A Conclusion about Policy
• Policy cannot stand alone as our response to climate
change.
– Every person and every group of people will be impacted by
climate change, and therefore, by policy to address climate
change.
• In fact, some feel that they are more impacted by policy than by
climate change.
• Policy has to not only be effective, but it has to include
and balance the interests of all who have a stake.
– Policy opportunity
• Policy represents our values – our societal belief system.
– It sets the bounds on behavior to benefit society
The Uncertainty Fallacy
• That the systematic reduction of scientific
uncertainty will lead to development of
policy is a fallacy.
– Uncertainty can always be used to keep
policy from converging.
– That is – this is a political issue
• What might lead to successful policy
efforts?
Today
• Structure of problem solving
• Policy Interface 1
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2
– Global Mitigation
• Elements of the Political Argument
The Official Policy is:
• United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
– Framework Convention on Climate Change
What is COP?
• COP is the Conference of Parties
– Parties are those countries who have signed
the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change. There are 192 signatories.
• Essential Background UNFCCC
Michigan Observer Status
• Framework Convention Parties and
Observers
– Parties are signatories of Framework
Convention
– Observers are invited to the meeting for
participation, transparency, and accountability
• United Nations Representatives
• Intergovernmental Organizations
• Non-governmental Organizations
– Virtual Participation
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(US in part of this.)
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(1992, non-binding, voluntary, 192 signers)
– Reduce CO2 Emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels
– Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions
– Mitigate Climate Change
• Mid-1990’s
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Development of International Approach to Climate Change
1988
1992
1995
1997
2001
2009
2007
IPCC
established
Framework
Convention
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto
Protocol
Copenhagen
Accord
Scientific
assessment
Non-binding
aim
Binding
emissions
target
Keep warming
less than 2 C
Dangerous climate change?
• What is dangerous?
Stern Report: Influential: Useful for thinking about problem
• Draws on recent science which points to
‘significant risks of temperature increases above
5°C under business-as-usual by the early part of
the next century’ — other studies typically have
focused on increases of 2–3°C.
• Treats aversion to risk explicitly.
• Adopts low pure time discount rates to give
future generations equal weight.
• Takes account of the disproportionate impacts
on poor regions.
Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006
Stern Report
• Considered a radical revision of climate change
economics.
– If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20%
of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of
economy.)
• Stands in contrast to many studies that usually
come to numbers of closer to 1%
– The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth
rate will have little impact on the economy or
environment in the beginning, but will ultimately
become important when the nature of expenditures is
more clear.
Some carry away messages
• Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon
dioxide.
- Gives cap for a cap and trade system.
- Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450
and 550 ppm.
- Ice sheet melting and sea level?
- Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream?
- Ocean acidification?
- Determine a tolerable measure of increased
temperature
- Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2o C
Dangerous climate change?
Stern, 2006
1992 Convention Commitments
• All Parties agree to:
4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks
4.1.c. Promote technology development and
transfer
4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation
• Developed Countries’ aim to return emissions
to 1990 levels by the end of the century
Assessment
• Mid-1990’s
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
• 2001
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
• 2007
– No reduction in emissions
– Evidence of warming and impacts
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
“This generation
has altered the
composition of the
atmosphere on a
global scale
through…a steady
increase in carbon
dioxide from the
burning of fossil
fuels.”
--Lyndon Johnson
Special Message
to Congress,
1965
Data and more information
Kyoto Protocol followed 1995 assessments
• Is the Kyoto Protocol still relevant?
Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto Protocol (December, 1997, binding
limits on or reduction of emissions)
– Must be signed (155 signers (?186)) and
ratified
• At least 55 countries
• That represent 55 % or more of emissions
– Open for signatures on March 16, 1998
– Went into effect on February 16, 2005
• After Russia signed and ratified
Kyoto Protocol Requirements
• Developed nations reduce their emissions 5.2% below 1990
emissions
– Reduction (increases) vary across countries
– Relaxed a little over the years to attract signers
– (Treaty: U.S. 7% reduction: Actual: 12% higher in 2004, 30% by 2012)
• Addresses “six” greenhouse gases (CO2, Methane CH4, Nitrous
Oxide N2O, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur
hexafluoride)
• Commitment period 2008-2012
• Set of other activities
–
–
–
–
Improve “local emission factors”
Inventories of emissions and sinks
Mitigation and adaptation plans
Environmentally sound technology diffusion to developing nations
Kyoto Protocol Issues
• Amount and distribution for limits and
reductions
• What greenhouse gases to include
• Developing countries in or out of emission
requirements
• Trading, market-based mechanisms
• Role of removing greenhouse gases
Kyoto Protocol: Important Add ons
• Market-based mechanisms
– Emissions trading
– Joint implementation
– Clean development mechanisms
Flexibility in Achieving Targets
• “What” flexibility
– Targets apply to CO2-equivalent emissions
of basket of six GHGs
– Can use carbon sinks (e.g. forests) as
offsets
• “When” flexibility
– Five-year commitment period
– Banking
• “Where” flexibility
– Market mechanisms: ET, JI, CDM
Thanks to Rosina Bierbaum
“Flaws” in Kyoto Protocol
• Participation of Developing Countries
– Large populations, large projected growth
• Participation of the United States
– 25 % of greenhouse gas emissions
• Other “flaws”
– Does not go far enough: Emission goals don’t
adequately mitigate dangerous climate
change
– 2008-2012 commitment period – then what?
Beyond 2012
• Conference of Parties, Copenhagen 2009
• Copenhagen Accord
Today
• Structure of problem solving
• Policy Interface 1
– Uncertainty Fallacy
• Policy Interface 2
– Global Mitigation
• Elements of the Political Argument
PA1: Just a Theory
• A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory,
equating theory with conjecture.
– Theory is not conjecture, it is testable.
• Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system,
governed by quantitative conservation equations.
– Theory is not fact, it can and will change.
– Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory
might be wrong.
• Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory.
– True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by
Newton.
– True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity,
there are “why” questions.
– Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein
did.
• Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example,
to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some
confidence.
PA2: Greenhouse Effect
• This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the
surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable.
– Habitable? Water exists in all three phases?
• Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural
greenhouse gases.
• Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces
of CO2 cannot be important.
– Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is
so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative
humidity.)
– This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the
climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we
have co-evolved with that are important.
• Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or
closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.
PA3: What happens to this CO2
• A “new” political argument: CO2 from fossil fuels is small
compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True.
But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the
excess CO2, the CO2 on the margin that comes from
fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and
oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere.
• There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted
– 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere
– 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean
– 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems
• Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification
– Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008
• It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.
PA4: Cycles
• Some say that there are cycles, they are natural,
they are inevitable, they show that human have
no influence.
– Cycles? yes  natural? Yes
• Inevitable  There are forces beyond our control
– We can determine what causes cycle; they are not
supernatural
• Greenhouse gases change
• “Life” is involved  ocean and land biology
• Humans are life  This is the time humans release CO2
PA4: Cycles  CO2 and T
• At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature
starts to go up before CO2; hence, T increase is
unrelated to CO2
– Need to think about time and balance here …
• There are sources of T and CO2 variability other than the
radiative greenhouse gas effect.
– If CO2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced
surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change
temperature beyond other sources of variability?
– If T increases, there could be CO2 increases associated with,
for instance, release from solution in the ocean
– CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive
die off of trees, volcanoes  have to count, know the balance.
PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages
• In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age.
Now warming. You have no credibility, why
should we believe you now.
– In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press
attention.
– 2010  Think scientific method
• Observations, observations, observations
• Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect
• Results reproduced my many investigators, using many
independent sources of observations
• Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations
• Probability of alternative description is very small.
PA5:
The last 1000 years: The hockey stick
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
PA5: Hockey Stick
• This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is
very controversial. Quality of data,
presentation, manipulation, messaging.
– Rood blog
– Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy
• There are some issues with data,
messaging, emotions of scientists here,
but the data are, fundamentally, correct.
PA5: Hockey Stick: Science
• But place the surface temperature record of the
hockey stick in context using the scientific
method.
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers,
through independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations 
sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of
spring
– Consistency of signals with theory  upper
tropospheric cooling
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source
• There has developed a discussion between those who believe in
surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data.
– Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each
system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be
reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other.
• Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island
– If ignored (wrong), then data flawed
– If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted
• Satellite data objective and accurate?
– Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is
different, calibrated with non-satellite data
• And ultimately: Scientific method
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through
independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations
– Consistency of signals with theory
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
Projects
Use of climate information
• Research on the use of climate knowledge
states that for successful projects, for
example:
– Co-development / Co-generation
– Trust
– Narratives
– Scale
• Spatial
• Temporal
Lemos and Morehouse, 2005
Projects
• Broad subjects and teams defined
• Meeting 1 with Rood
– Now to early March: Project vision and goals
• Meeting 2 with Rood
– Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed
• Class review
– Short, informal presentation, external review and possible
coordination
• Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12
• Final written report: April 25
Project Teams
• Education / Denial
– Allison Caine
– Nayiri Haroutunian
– Elizabeth McBride
– Michelle Reicher
Project Teams
• Regional
– Emily Basham
– Catherine Kent
– Sarah Schwimmer
– James Toth
– Nicholas Fantin
Project Teams
• City
– Jian Wei Ang
– Erin Dagg
– Caroline Kinstle
– Heather Lucier
Project Teams
• University
– Nathan Hamet
– Adam Schneider
– Jillian Talaski
– Victor Vardan
glisaclimate.org
• Goal to facilitate problem solving
– Based on class experience
– Support narratives
– Build templates for problem solving