Transcript AOSS_NRE_480_L15_Energy_Kaya_Projects_20120306.ppt
Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 6, 2012
Class News
• • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: – http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • Projects: – First Meeting this week?
• Thursday before class?
• Thursday after class?
• Wednesday?
• Friday, remotely?
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center .
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
Key references and websites
• Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends.
• The ‘wedge’ paper: “A plan to keep carbon in check” by Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. ( link ) – This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth
Today
• Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?
• Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Summary Points: Science
Correlated Observations CO 2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO 2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Theory / Empirical Evidence CO 2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets Concept of “Forcing” Observations CO 2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Prediction Earth Will Warm Feedbacks Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Validation Attribution Consequences Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change
Response: Think about this for a minute
• What are the responses that make sense?
– Regulation – Life time responsibility for product – the coke can – Improve use of current resources – efficiency – Integrate development and climate change - adaptation • What might motivate those responses?
– Potential costs – Make the cost right … do not deny “use” – Cost of inefficiency – Social justice issues • What might hinder those responses?
– Cost – benefit – Lack of flexibility – Social justice issues – Economy versus environment
Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Emissions are growing faster than expected
Source: Manning et al. 2010 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Where do emissions come from?
People Engage in economic activity that Uses energy from Carbon emitting generation Population GDP per capita Energy intensity of the economy Carbon intensity of energy P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ----- --- --- P GDP TE
The “Kaya Identity” see IPCC WG 3 From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
P GDP/P TE/GDP C/TE
Factor
Population GDP per capita Energy intensity Carbon intensity
Lever
Less people Smaller economy Increase efficiency Switch energy sources
Approach to Policy
Population management Limit generation of wealth Do same or more with less energy Generate energy with less emissions
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C ----- --- --- P GDP TE GDP
Technology
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix
Pielke Jr. argues
• The need for technology to make solutions possible.
• Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative • Must go – From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap – To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive
Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas
World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003
megaton oil equivalent
* Source: International Energy Agency 2005
Context: Growth
10 8 6 4 2 0 1850 1900 cement and gas flaring
gas oil coal
1950
deforestation
2000
Today
• Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?
• Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
World Carbon Emissions
10 8 cement and gas flaring
gas
6
oil
4
coal
2 0 1850 • 1900 1950 CO 2 emissions arise from: 1. Cement production (~5 %) 2. Deforestation (~20 %) 3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %)
deforestation
2000
75%
CO
2
source: Deforestation
10 8 6 4 Fossil fuels Deforestation Total 320 200 GtC 520 Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere cement and gas flaring
gas oil coal
2 •
deforestation
0 1850 1900 1950 Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change: 2000 – It accounts for ~20 % of current CO 2 – It accounted for ~35 % of total CO 2 emissions emissions since preindustrial times.
Context: Energy and Climate Change • Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY POPULATION CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE
Energy and Economic Success
What countries are missing from this figure?
What has changed since 2005?
The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)
Today
• Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?
• Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
In what forms do we consume energy? • Fossil fuels: – Coal – Oil – Natural gas • Other: – Nuclear – Hydro – Renewables (mostly biomass) – ‘Hydrogen’ Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004
Energy sources: Coal
• Emits most CO 2 per unit energy of all fossil fuels • Accounts for ~29% of world CO 2 emissions • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)
Energy sources: Oil
• Emits ~75 % of coal CO 2 emissions per unit energy.
• Accounts for ~30 % of world CO 2 emissions.
• Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) • U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern
Energy sources: Natural gas
• Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO 2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~16% of world CO 2 emissions • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves are another ~65 years Methane Leakage and Fracking
Trend of fossil fuel use
• In ‘business as usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Today
• Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?
• Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Emissions from economic sectors • Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)
US energy use by sector
• Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.
• Transportation: cars, planes, ships EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Transportation sector
• Sector with fastest growing CO in US 2 emissions
U.S. energy consumption by sector
• Dominated by oil and road transport • Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of US CO 2 emissions EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Buildings sector
• Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)
U.S. energy consumption by sector
• Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating • Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Industrial sector
• Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.
• The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.
• Also includes agriculture…
U.S. energy consumption by sector U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Agriculture: A different slice
Agriculture
• Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3 –4.5 % in industrialized countries.
– Half of used energy and direct CO 2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process) • BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.
• Livestock rearing is most significant contributor
Agriculture: Livestock
• 2006 report of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN: – “The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” • Important economic sector: – Employs 1.3 billion people (mostly poor) – Occupies 30 % (!) of Earth’s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production • 33 % of arable land for feed production
Agriculture: Livestock
• Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation!
– 70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures. – Feedcrops cover most of remaining 30 %.
– Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation) • Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.
Agriculture: Livestock
• Responsible for ~18 % of CO 2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N 2 O and CH 4 ) Same share as entire US!
– 9 % of world CO 2 emissions • Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer • Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!) – 37 % of world CH 4 emissions • Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source) • Animal manure – 65 % of N 2 O • Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N 2 O emission 10 8 6 4 2 0 1850 1900 cement and gas flaring
gas oil coal
1950
deforestation
2000
Today
• Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?
• Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Energy consumption by end use
• The three main end uses of fossil fuel are: – Electric power plants (~40 % of CO CO 2 2 emissions) emissions) – Transportation (~23 % of – Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO 2 emissions)
World CO 2 emissions by fuel and end use
• So ~40 % CO from electricity, 60 % from fuels 2 emissions Socolow and Pacala , 2006
Energy consumption by end use: Electricity
• Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels • One third from hydro and nuclear power
Cost of Electricity
Cost of electricity in US in 2002
Electricity generation by source, U.S., 2006 Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009 • Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
• Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive What is changing in this balance ?
Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use • ‘Direct fuel use’: – Transportation (oil) – Heating in buildings – Industrial processes • Dominated by oil • No real alternatives for transportation fuels – Biofuels do not mitigate CO 2 cars?
emission – Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006
Today
• Pielke Jr.: Climate, Energy, Population, Economy • CO 2 emissions: where do they come from?
• Current sources of energy • Emissions from economic sectors • Energy consumption by end use • External costs to energy use (besides climate change)
Major External Costs
• Public Health • National Security • Environment – Air quality – warming tension
Energy and climate (besides greenhouse warming) • Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by: – Scattering radiation – Seeding clouds • Cleaning up ‘dirty coal’ might thus not be good for climate…
Summary Points: U.S. Energy
Energy Appendix
• Original Material from Jasper Kok
CO
2
source: Cement Production
• Cement is produced from limestone, which is mostly calcite (CaCO 3 ).
• • • For production of cement: CaCO 3 CaO + CO 2 Production of cement emits CO 2 for two reasons: 1.
2.
CO 2 emitted directly Production process takes place at high temperatures only (> 1000 ºC) which requires a lot of energy.
Accounts for ~5 % of CO 2 emissions worldwide
CO
2
source: Deforestation
• Massive deforestation occurred – In developed nations during Industrial Revolution (driven by need for cheap energy) – In developing (tropical) nations right now, mostly in response to demand for cropland, pastures, and wood.
• When forests are cut down, CO 2 is released from: – Carbon in trees, plants, etc. (conversion to wood products preserves only small fraction) – Carbon in the soil (roots, humus) • Forests absorb “excess” CO 2 , since elevated CO 2 stimulates growth – Removal of forests removes this natural buffer against climate change
CO 2 source: Fossil Fuel Use • Sharp increase (16-fold!) in world energy consumption over past century – Why did this occur?
Energy and Economic Success
The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use =
(population) * (GDP/Person) *( energy/unit GDP )
• GDP/capita is considered the “societal success” • Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/capita.
Energy and population • Strong population increase since pre-industrial times!
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html
Energy use =
(population) *
(GDP/Person) *(energy/unit GDP)
World GDP/capita
• Also strong growth in GDP/capita!
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/TCEH/1998_Draft/World_GDP/Estimating_World_GDP.html
Energy use = (population)*
(GDP/Person)
*(energy/unit GDP)
Energy and GDP
Energy use per capita and per dollar GDP in U.S. (index, 1980 = 1) • Energy/unit GDP decreases as societies become more developed shift from manufacturing to services (root cause of Michigan’s economic trouble) • But total energy use per capita does not decrease.
EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2008 Energy use = (population)*(GDP/Person) *(
energy/unit GDP
)
So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use =
(population) * (GDP/Person) *( energy/unit GDP )
• Main drivers of rapid increase in energy consumption have been increases in population and GDP/capita • This is why climate change problem is so difficult: – We can’t affect population (possible, but politically incorrect…) – Reducing GDP to combat climate change is also not feasible • But reduction in energy per unit GDP occurs with shift to knowledge-based economy (developed world now).
• Still, reduction in world energy use not realistic.
– To reduce CO 2 emissions, need to drastically lower CO 2 emitted per unit energy, especially since we want economy to keep growing.
Current sources of energy: Fossil fuels
Energy sources: Coal
• Emits most CO 2 fossil fuels per unit energy of all • Accounts for ~29% of world CO 2 emissions • Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations) • Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter • Proven reserves are almost endless (~250 years)
Coal is major source of air pollution • Coal emits sulfur and smoke particulates • “Great London smog” of 1952 led to thousands of casualties.
– Caused by cold inversion layer pollutants didn’t disperse + Londoners burned large amounts of coal for heating • Demonstrated impact of pollutants and played role in passage of “Clean Air Acts” in the US and Western Europe
Coal use in the US
Coal use by sector in US
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006 • After “Great London smog” of 1952, decrease in residential coal use • Use of coal for electricity has been growing consistently because coal is cheap and abundant, and combustion technology is readily available
Energy sources: Oil
• Emits ~75 % of coal CO 2 unit energy.
emissions per • Accounts for ~30 % of world CO 2 emissions.
• Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating • Proven reserves are ~40 years of conventional oil. After that, another ~100 years of unconventional oil (tar sands etc.) • U.S. dependency on imported oil is a major national security concern
Energy sources: Natural gas
• Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘only’ ~60 % of coal CO 2 per unit energy • Accounted for ~16% of world CO 2 emissions • Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal) • Proven reserves are another ~65 years
Trend of fossil fuel use
• In ‘business as usual’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy • Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007
Reserves of fossil fuels
Fuel type: Oil Proven reserves (years) 41 Unconventional reserves (years) 125 Coal 251 210 Natural Gas 64 360 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004 • We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon!
• ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc..
– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine
Current sources of energy: nuclear and renewables
Energy sources: Nuclear
• Accounts for ~6 % of world energy consumption and ~ 19 % of US electricity generation • Used only for electricity generation
Nuclear share of electricity generation in U.S.
• No CO 2 emissions from plant operating, but some from uranium mining (~10 - 20 % of coal emissions per kWh) • Concerns about nuclear waste storage and nuclear weapons proliferation
Nuclear power plant licenses issued in U.S.
Chernobyl
• Hardly growing in most of developed world.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Energy sources: Renewables
• Mostly from biomass (wood), hydro power, and biofuels.
Renewable energy as share of total energy in U.S., 2006
• Contribution from other renewables (geothermal, solar, wind, tides) are small.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006
Energy ‘sources’: Hydrogen
• Hydrogen as a fuel is often misunderstood: – Hydrogen is NOT a source of energy!
– It’s merely an energy carrier, much like electricity • Hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water: This requires electricity • Hydrogen burns cleanly • Hydrogen’s significance is that: 1. It can be produced using renewable energy, which would displace fossil fuel. 2. Emissions are easier to mitigate, because they occur at a central location rather than individual cars.
• In the absence of policies including cost of climate change, hydrogen would be generated using cheap coal-generated electricity
Reserves of fossil fuels (repeat)
Fuel type: Oil Proven reserves (years) 41 Unconventional reserves (years) 125 Coal 251 210 Natural Gas 64 360 Source: World Energy Assessment, 2004 • We won’t be running out of fossil fuels anytime soon!
• ‘Unconventional’ includes oil sands, oil shale, coalbed methane, etc..
– Unconventional fossil fuels cost more energy/effort to mine
Electricity generation: Switch to renewables in future?
• So in ‘business-as-usual’ abundant, cheap, fossil fuel derived electricity will likely be available until the end of the century.
• This cheap electricity can also be used to produce hydrogen fuel, should oil demand exceed supply.
• Renewables will thus not play important role until – Externalities are taken into account (taxes, cap-and-trade) – There are technological breakthroughs (solar PV, fusion)
Energy and National Security
• U.S. imports most of its oil – This is a liability, as some of that oil comes from Middle East (though not as much as one would think!) – Past (and most of current) U.S. energy policy revolves around energy security – not climate change mitigation • Majority of remaining oil in Middle East US oil trade Origin of US oil imports, 2006
Energy and Public Health
• The burning of fossil fuels is the dominant source of air pollution, emitting – Carbon monoxide (CO), which is toxic and can cause headaches and exacerbate heart disease – Nitrogen oxides (NO x ), which causes respiratory problems and leads to
smog
– Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), which produces acid rain and smog – Particulate matter, which causes respiratory problems – Mercury emissions, which are mostly taken in through fish, where they bioaccumulate.
• The overall cost of air pollution on human health is large (~6 % of deaths in EU) but very difficult to quantify
Projects
Use of climate information
• Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: – Co-development / Co-generation – Trust – Narratives – Scale • Spatial • Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005
Projects
• Broad subjects and teams defined • Meeting 1 with Rood – Now to early March: Project vision and goals • Meeting 2 with Rood – Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed • Class review – Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination • Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 • Final written report: April 25
Project Teams
• Education / Denial – Allison Caine – Nayiri Haroutunian – Elizabeth McBride – Michelle Reicher
Project Teams
• Regional – Emily Basham – Catherine Kent – Sarah Schwimmer – James Toth – Nicholas Fantin
Project Teams
• City – Jian Wei Ang – Erin Dagg – Caroline Kinstle – Heather Lucier
Project Teams
• University – Nathan Hamet – Adam Schneider – Jillian Talaski – Victor Vardan
glisaclimate.org
• Goal to facilitate problem solving – Based on class experience – Support narratives – Build templates for problem solving