Transcript Emerging-Markets-to-Frontier-Markets.ppt

Emerging Markets to
Frontier Markets
Paul Goodwin
Analyst,
Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report
[email protected]
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Danger Everywhere You Look
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What Are the Dangers?
• Examples:
– Greek liquidity crisis
– Egyptian revolution
– China’s investor controls
– Inflation in Brazil
– Bureaucracy in India
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The Risks: China Mobile (CHL)
2004-2007
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The Risks: China Mobile (CHL)
2007-Present
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Emerging Markets Leave China
in the Dust: Jan. 2011–Apr. 2013
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Then It All Changes in May
• PGJ = China
• EEM = Emerging Markets
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EM Investing Is a Stock-Picker’s Game
• Phoenix New Media (FENG)
– Inc. 2007 in Beijing
– Internet, mobile and TV
– Market cap: $625 million
– Revenue: $184 million
– Announced Q2 results Monday: stock up
12%
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• Revenue sources (Q1 2013)
– Value added services = 79% of revenue
• Social Networks—24%
• Online Games—55%
– Advertising = 6%
– eCommerce = 14%
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• Q1 Earnings Report: May 15
– Total revenue up 40.4% y.o.y.
– Operating profit up 37.1%
• Q2 Earnings Report: August 14
– ???
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• Established 1999
– Largest eCommerce player in China
– Market cap HKD67 billion ($8.7 billion)
– 17% owned by Yahoo!
– IPO talked about end of 2013
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Alibaba.com—Global e-commerce
1688.com—E-commerce for small Chinese biz
AliExpress—Global consumer marketplace
Taobao.com—C2C shopping destination
Tmall.com—Online brand-name shopping
eTao—Comprehensive shopping search engine
Alibaba Cloud Computing—Just like Amazon
Alipay—Just like Paypal
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Cabot Investors Conference 2013
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