Transcript 전략적 생산용량 계획 - YUST 생산관리 Class Home

생산운영관리
Ch. 5. Strategic Capacity Planning for
Products and Services
(전략적 생산용량 계획)
Hansoo Kim (金翰秀)
Dept. of Management Information Systems,
YUST
이번주 까지 했어야 하는 일들…
 읽기: Chapter 17, and Chapter 5, 5s
 Play with ProjectLibre
Ch.17 중요 요점
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What is Project? What is Project Management?
Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling
Matrix Organization,
WBS (Work-Breakdown-Structure)
Network Diagram
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AON, AOA

Finding Critical Path
Gantt Chart
PERT/CPM
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Project Management Problem
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Forward Calculation/Backward Calculation
Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule?
Is the project over or under cost budget?
Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time?
If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time,
what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?
Crashing
OM Overview
Class Overview
(Ch. 0)
X
Operations,
Productivity,
and Strategy
(Ch. 1, 2)
Project
Management
(Ch. 17)
X
Strategic
Capacity
Planning
(Ch. 5, 5S)
Mgmt of Quality/
Six Sigma Quality
(Ch. 9, 10)
Queueing/
Simulation
(Ch. 18)
Supply Chain
Management
(Ch 11)
Location Planning
and Analysis
(Ch. 8)
Demand Mgmt
Forecasting
(Ch 3)
X
Aggregated
Planning
(Ch. 13)
Inventory
Management
(Ch. 12)
MRP & ERP
(Ch 14)
Process
Selection/
Facility
Layout; LP
(Ch. 6, 6S)
JIT &
Lean Mfg System
(Ch. 15)
Term
Project
OM Expert가 되기 위해서…
Developing
Proper Model
Understanding
Problem
Existing Models:
LP Model,
Queueing Model,
Simulation Model,
PERT/CPM Model
Communicable
with other OM People
Domain Expert
(Studying general
Problems and Working
Experience)
Develop New Models
OM EXPERT!!
Operations Research
(경영과학)
Mathematical Programming,
and Computational
Methodology
Finding Solution
Technique
학습목표
 생산용량계획의 중요성을 설명할 수 있다
 생산용량을 정의하고 측정하는 방법을 토의
한다
 유효생산용량의 결정요소들을 기술한다
 생산용량 대안 개발과 관련된 주요 고려사항
들을 토의한다
 생산용량 대안을 평가하는 데 유용한 도구들
을 간단히 기술한다
Terms (용어)
영어
중국어
영어
중국어
Bottleneck operation
瓶颈作业
Expected monetary
value(EMV)criterion
预期币值标准
Break-even point
盈亏平衡点
Expected value of perfect
information(EVPI)
完全信息预期价值
Capacity
运营能力
Laplace
Capacity cushion
运营能力缓冲
Maximax
Cash flow
现金流
Maximin
Diseconomies of scale
规模不经济
Minimax regret
Economies of scale
规模经济
Payoff table
Outsource
外包
Regret (opportunity loss)
Present value
现值
Risk
风险
Bounded rationality
有限理性
Sensitivity analysis
灵敏度分析
Suboptimization
局部最优化
Certainty
Decision tree
决策图标
Uncertainty
结算表
Capacity(运营能力, 생산용량)
Planning
 Capacity (생산용량): 한 생산 단위가 처리할 수 있는 최대 부하
the upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can
handle.

Eg. # of bicycle assembled in an hr
 생산용량에 포함되는 요소들
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Equipment (설비)
Space (공간)
Employee skills (작업능력)
Over-capacity?
Under-capacity?
 생산용량계획 수립시 기본질문들…
The basic questions in capacity handling are:
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What kind of capacity is needed? (어떤 종류의 생산용량이 필요한가?)
How much is needed? (얼마나 필요한가?)
When is it needed? (언제 필요한가?)
생산용량 결정의 전략적 속성
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
미래에 발생할 수요를 충족하는 능력에 영향을 준다
생산용량 결정은 생산비용에 영향을 준다.
생산용량은 보통 초기 투자의 주요 구성요소이다.
생산용량 결정은 장기적 관점의 의사결정이다.
생산용량 결정은 경쟁력에 영향을 미친다.
생산용량 결정에 따라 관리의 용이성이 달라질수 있
다.
글로벌화로 인해 생산용량 결정이 더 중요해지고 복
잡해 졌다.
생산용량결정은 충분한 시간을 두고 결정해야할 중요
한 의사결정이다.
Capacity Decisions are Strategic!!!
생산용량의 정의
 Design capacity (설계용량)
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설계시 결정된 최대 산출물이나 서비스 용량
Maximum output rate or service capacity an operation,
process, or facility is designed for
 Effective capacity (유효생산용량)
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
설계용량에서 인적요인 또는 기타 이유로 인한 공제량을
뺀 용량
Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time,
maintenance, and scrap
 Actual output (실제산출률)
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실제 산출률 – 유효생산용량을 초과할수 없음
Rate of output actually achieved—
cannot exceed effective capacity.
Efficiency(효율) and
Utilization(이용률)
Actual output
Efficiency =
Effective capacity
Actual output
Both measures expressed
as percentages
Utilization =
Design capacity
Example 1
Design capacity = 50 trucks/day
Effective capacity = 40 trucks/day
Actual output = 36 units/day
Key to improving capacity ~ |Efficiency – Utilization|
유효생산용량에 영향을 미치는 요인
Determinants of Effective Capacity
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Facilities (시설)
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Policy(정책)
Operational(운영)
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Design (설계)
Location (위치)
Layout (배치)
Environment (환경)
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Design (설계)
Product or service mix (제품/서비스
믹스)
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Quantity capabilities(양적 능력)
Quality capabilities(품질 능력)
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Job content(직무 내용)
Job design(직무 설계)
Training and experience(훈련과경험)
Motivation(동기유발)
Compensation(보상)
Learning rates(학습 속도)
Absenteeism and labor turnover
(결근 및 퇴직률)
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Product/service (제품/서비스)
Process (프로세스)
Human factors (인적 요인)
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Scheduling(스케줄링)
Materials management(자재 관
리)
Quality assurance(품질 보증)
Maintenance policies(보전 정
책)
Equipment breakdowns(장비
고장)
Supply chain(공급사슬)
External factors (외적요인)
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Product standards(제품 표준)
Safety regulations(안전 규제)
Unions(노조)
Pollution control standards(공
해 관리 기준)
생산용량계획의 주요 의사결정
Key Decisions of Capacity Planning
1. 필요생산용량
Amount of capacity needed
•
여유생산용량 (Capacity cushion)
= (100% - Utilization)
2. Timing of changes
3. Need to maintain balance
4. Extent of flexibility of facilities
Capacity cushion –
extra demand intended to offset uncertainty
수요의 불확실성을상쇄시키기 위한 추가적인 생산 용량
생산용량계획 절차:
Steps for Capacity Planning
1. 미래 필요 생산용량 추정
(Estimate future capacity requirements)
2. 현재 생산용량 평가 (Evaluate existing capacity)
3. 대안 파악 (Identify alternatives)
4. 재무 분석 수행 (Conduct financial analysis)
5. 정성적 요인 평가 (Assess key qualitative issues)
6. 대안 선택 (Select one alternative)
7. 실행 (Implement alternative chosen)
8. 결과 모니터링 (Monitor results)
생산용량소요 예측
Forecasting Capacity Requirements
 Long-term vs. short-term capacity needs
 Long-term relates to overall level of capacity such as
facility size, trends, and cycles
 Short-term relates to variations from seasonal,
random, and irregular fluctuations in demand
Figure5-1
Common demand patterns
생산용량 계산
(Calculating Processing Requirements)
Standard
processing time
per unit (hr.)
Processing time
needed (hr.)
Product
Annual
Demand
#1
400
5.0
2,000
#2
300
8.0
2,400
#3
700
2.0
1,400
5,800
년간 용량이 2000시간/기계 라면, 우리는 5800시간을 확보하기 위해 2.9대의
설비가 필요하다 5,800 (hours)/2,000 (hours/mc) = 2.90 machines
서비스용량계획:
Planning Service Capacity
 Need to be near customers
(용량과 고객이 근접함)
 Capacity and location are closely tied
 Inability to store services
(서비스 용량은 저장이 안됨)
 Capacity must be matched with timing of
demand
 Degree of volatility(휘발성) of demand
 Peak demand periods
생산용량, 자체생산이냐 구매냐?
In-House or Outsourcing*
1. 가용생산 용량
Make or Buy?
Available capacity
2. 전문성; Expertise
3. 품질; Quality considerations
4. 수요의 특성;
Nature of demand Outsource(외주): 외부공급자로
부터 제품과 서비스를 공급받는
5. 원가; Cost
것
obtain a good or service from an
6. 위험; Risk
external provider
생산용량 대안 개발
(Developing Capacity Alternatives)
1. 시스템을 유연하게 설계하라
Design flexibility into systems
2. 수명주기 단계를 감안하라
Take stage of life-cycle into account
3. 시스템 사고로 생산용량 변경에 접근하라
Take a “big picture” approach to capacity changes (not to be suboptimal)
4. 생산용량을 덩어리 (Chunk)로 다룰 준비를 하라
Prepare to deal with capacity “chunks”
5. 생산용량소요를 평준화 하도록 시도하라
Attempt to smooth out capacity requirements
6. 최적 운영수준을 파악하라.
Identify the optimal operating level
병목공정
Bottleneck Operation
“sub-optimization”
Figure 5.2
Operation 1
20/hr.
Operation 2
10/hr.
Bottleneck
Bottleneck operation: An operation
in a sequence of operations whose
capacity is lower than that of the
other operations
일련의 공정들 중에서 생산용량이
가장 작은 공정
Operation 3
15/hr.
Maximum output rate
limited by bottleneck
10/hr.
규모의 경제
Economies of Scale
 Economies of scale
 규모의 경제: 산출률이 최적
수준 이하면, 산출률을 늘리
면 단위 당 평균 원가는 내
려간다.
 Diseconomies of scale
 규모의 비경제: 산출률이
최적수준이상이면 산출률을
늘리면 단위 당 평균 원가는
올라간다
Economies of Scale
Minimum cost & optimal operating rate are
functions of size of production unit.
Figure 5.5
대안 평가
Evaluating Alternatives
 비용-조업도 분석 (Cost-volume analysis)
 손익분기점 Break-even point
 재무분석 (Financial analysis)
 현금 흐름 (Cash flow)
 현재 가치 (Present value)
 의사결정 이론 (Decision theory)
 대기행렬 분석 (Waiting-line analysis)
비용-조업도 관계
Cost-Volume Relationships
FC = Fixed cost
VC = Total variable cost
v = Variable cost per unit
TC = Total cost
TR = Total revenue
R = Revenue per unit
Q = Quantity or volume of output
QBEP = Break-even quantity
P = Profit
TC=FC+VC
VC=Q*v
손익분기점 분석
Break-Even Analysis
Example 3
 Adding a new line of pies, which will require leasing new
equipment for a monthly payment of $6,000. Variable costs
would be $2.00 per pie, and pies would retail for $7.00 each.
1.
2.
3.
4.
SOLUTION
How many pies must be sold in order to break even?
What would the profit (loss) be if 1,000 pies are made and sold
in a month?
How many pies must be sold to realize a profit of $4,000?
If 2,000 can be sold, and a profit target is $5,000, what price
should be charged per pie?
복수손익분기점 문제:
Break-Even Problem
with Step Fixed Costs
EXAMPLE 4
의사결정 이론
Decision Theory
Ch. 5S
Decision Theory
Decision Theory represents a general approach to
decision making which is suitable for a wide range of
operations management decisions, including:
Capacity
planning
Product and
service design
Location
planning
Equipment
selection
Decision Process
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Identify the problem
Specify objectives and criteria for a solution
Develop suitable alternatives
Analyze and compare alternatives
Select the best alternative
Implement the solution
Monitor to see that the desired result is
achieved
Decision Environments
 Certainty - Environment in which relevant
parameters have known values
 Risk - Environment in which certain future
events have probable outcomes
 Uncertainty - Environment in which it is
impossible to assess the likelihood of
various future events
1. Profit per unit is $5. You have an order for 200 units. How much profit will you make?
(This is an example of certainty since unit profits and total demand are known.)
2. Profit is $5 per unit. Based on previous experience, there is a 50 percent chance of an
order for 100 units and a 50 percent chance of an order for 200 units. What is expected
profit? (This is an example of risk since demand outcomes are probabilistic.)
3. Profit is $5 per unit. The probabilities of potential demands are unknown. (This is an
example of uncertainty.)
Decision Making under Certainty (확
정성하의 의사결정)
Payoff table
Solution:
Choose the alternative with the highest payoff
If demand is low, take “small facility” alternative
If demand is moderate, take “Medium facility” alternative
If demand is high, take “Large facility” alternative
Decision Making under Uncertainty
(불확정성하의 의사결정)
Maximin - Choose the alternative with the
best of the worst possible payoffs
Maximax - Choose the alternative with the
best possible payoff
Laplace - Choose the alternative with the
best average payoff of any of the alternatives
Minimax Regret - Choose the alternative that
has the least of the worst regrets
Decision Making under Uncertainty
(불확정성하의 의사결정)
(a) Maximin
(b) Maximax
(c) Laplace
For the Laplace criterion, first find the row totals, and then
divide each of those amounts by the number of states of
nature (three in this case).
(d) Minimax Regret
(Opportunity Losses)
Decision Making Under Risk
(위험(불확실성)하의 의사결정)
 Risk: The probability of occurrence for each state of
nature is known
 Risk lies between the extremes of uncertainty and
certainty
 Expected monetary value (EMV) criterion:
 The best expected value among alternatives
 Determine the expected payoff of each alternative, and
choose the alternative with the best expected payoff
When demand probabilities
are distributed as follows
low = .30, moderate = .50,
and high = .20.
의사결정 나무 (Decision Tree)
 Decision tree: a Schematic representation
of the available alternatives and their
possible consequences.
Example

A manager must decide on the size of a video arcade to construct.
The manager has narrowed the choices to two: large or small.
Information has been collected on payoffs, and a decision tree has
been constructed. Analyze the decision tree and determine which
initial alternative (build small or build large) should be chosen in
order to maximize expected monetary value.
(평균완전정보비용)
Expected Value of Perfect Information
(EVPI)
Expected value of perfect information: the
difference between the expected payoff under
certainty and the expected payoff under risk
Expected value of
Expected payoff
perfect information = under certainty
In the previous example,
-
Expected payoff
under risk
민감도 분석
Sensitivity Analysis
 Sensitivity Analysis: Determining the range of probability
for which an alternative has the best expected payoff
 Useful for decision makers to have some indication of how
sensitive the choice of an alternative is to changes in one
or more of these values
Example 5s-8
요약
 Capacity Planning
 Decision Theory
HW#
 Review all Solved Problems on Ch. 5, 5s
 Do not need to hand-in (좋지?!)
To be OM Expert !!!
Developing
Proper Model
Understanding
Problem
Existing Models:
LP Model,
Queueing Model,
Simulation Model,
PERT/CPM Model
Communicable
with other OM People
Domain Expert
(Studying general
Problems and Working
Experience)
Capacity Planning
& Decision Theory
Develop New Models
OM EXPERT!!
Operations Research
(경영과학)
Mathematical Programming,
and Computational
Methodology
Finding Solution
Technique