APL MURI Kickoff 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 1

APL MURI TEAM      Bob Miyamoto David Jones Jim Pitton Keith Kerr Mark Krueger 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 2

Key Strengths of the Team    Navy/domain experience Related research projects  MHSII   EVIS DRI Visualization, Intelligent Agents, Engineering Statistics 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 3

APL Role in MURI Team      Provide relevance to Navy needs Coordinate interaction w/ Navy Orgs.

Develop task-based visualizations Integrate component research efforts Facilitate interaction among MURI participants 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 4

Navy METOC & Uncertainty    “Model of the Day?” Tropical Cyclone forecasts EFS at FNMOC   Ship Routing Long Range Temp Forecast 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 5

Navy METOC & Uncertainty  Based on my experience as the Operations Officer at FNMOC     Forecasters have limited understanding Confusing products Not designed for forecaster Great potential still not fully realized 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 6

Examples of Navy Uncertainty Products 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 7

FNMOC Ensemble Temp Mean 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 8

FNMOC 2m Temp Plume 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 9

FNMOC Gale Probability 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 10

Areas to investigate      How forecasters deal with uncertainty Uses of uncertainty information by METOC customers Easier ways to create uncertainty products Better visualization techniques Verification 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 11

FNMOC COAMPS 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 12

UW Ensemble Mean 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 13

Next Steps  Cognitive Task Analysis at  Whidbey Island  Norfolk  Collaborative work with NPMOC, NLMOC, NPMOF, & FNMOC  Visualization research >>> 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 14

Exploratory Software Prototype      Requirements Design Prototype Development Iterative Refinement Implementation Analysis 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 15

Tentative Requirements       User-based framework Analytic & Geospatial visualization tools Collaborative, interactive exploration Cross-platform availability Easy extensibility Suitable for broad range of expertise 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 16

Implementation Tools (1)   Java Language    Cross-platform Sophisticated network (web) model Can “wrap” models in other languages Inference Engine   Easy to tailor level of expertise Can both bound and sequence operations 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 17

Implementation Tools (2)  VisAD for Visualization       Model-View-Controller architecture Remote display and collaboration Sophisticated data model High-level scripting language (Jython) Supports specialized “toolkit” development Currently used within meteorological community 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 18

VisAD Creations (courtesy VMET) Terrain and Wind Vectors 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 19

VisAD Creations (Courtesy VMET) Time Series Wind Fields 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 20

VisAD Creations (courtesy VMET) MM5 output – wind and temp fields 4/26/2020 Applied Physics Laboratory 21