Transcript Headquarters U.S. Air Force DoD Perspectives on Space Weather Col Harold Elkins

Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Integrity - Service - Excellence
DoD Perspectives on Space Weather
Col Harold Elkins
HQ USAF/XOO-WX
1
Overview
 General
DoD Perspectives
 Collection
 Physical
and Analysis
Models
 Integration
 Way
Ahead
Integrity - Service - Excellence
2
DoD Perspectives on Space
Weather

DoD considers space weather as an important part of battlefield
awareness and essential to space situational awareness (SSA)

Today space weather affects ground, sea, air, and space operations
ranging from disaster relief to major conflicts

DoD’s primary concern is characterization of the ionosphere

DoD identified three space weather capabilities needing further
development:
 National space weather collection strategy improving the quality and
quantity of data describing the state of the environment

Improved, coupled physics-based models linking each region of
space in order to better predict the future state of the space
environment

Integration of actionable, predictive space weather impacts to DoD
capabilities and systems into operational information architectures
Integrity - Service - Excellence
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Overview
 General
DoD Perspectives
 Collection
 Physical
and Analysis
Models
 Integration
 Way
Ahead
Integrity - Service - Excellence
4
National Collection Strategy
National Security Space Environmental Monitoring Architecture

Interagency: DoD, DOC, NASA

Building a comprehensive view of environmental monitoring

Provides integrated views of environmental systems linked to
supported missions

Enables planning for evolutionary improvement

Shows gaps and redundancies in capabilities
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National Collection Strategy
Ionospheric Effects Characterization

Key to situational awareness, mitigation of degrading impacts on US
and coalition operations, and exploitation of enemy susceptibilities

Shortfalls:
 Capability to conduct environmental surveillance and
reconnaissance - collection
 Capability to process and build a coherent picture of the natural
environment - analysis
 Capability to produce current and predicted environmental
impacts knowledge - prediction

Capability to disseminate and integrate environmental impacts
knowledge - integration
 Capability to support defensive counterspace - SSA
 Capability to support offensive and defensive Information
Operations (IO) - impacts on comm
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Overview
 General
DoD Perspectives
 Collection
 Physical
and Analysis
Models
 Integration
 Way
Ahead
Integrity - Service - Excellence
7
Physics-based Models
Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

GAIM will further enable the DoD to forecast and specify the state
of the ionosphere, which is critical given our reliance upon
space-based systems

Output:
 3D electron density distribution from 90 to 35,000 km altitude
 Heights and electron densities of F2 and E layers
 Global, regional, and local grids

Input:
 Satellite in situ density measurements
 Ionosonde density profiles
 Ground-based GPS total electron content measurements
 Satellite line-of-sight UV measurements
Integrity - Service - Excellence
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Physics-based Models
Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

Mechanics
 Model capable of assimilating real-time ionospheric
measurements using a Kalman Filter technique

Where we are:
 Initial operating capability at AFWA expected 30 Sep 06
 Gauss-Markov version (to 1400 km)
 24-hr forecast capability every hour
 Specification every 15 minutes
 Complete replacement of PRISM
 Full operating capability expected no earlier than FY08
 Full physics version
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Overview
 General
DoD Perspectives
 Collection
 Physical
and Analysis
Models
 Integration
 Way
Ahead
Integrity - Service - Excellence
10
Integration

Space Situational Awareness Environmental Effects Fusion
System (SEEFS)
 Fuses space environmental forecasts and observations with
system vulnerabilities
 Will be integrated with Combatant Commanders Integrated C2
System (CCIC2S) to provide space environment awareness
and battlefield decision aids
 High priority program of AFSPC and USSTRATCOM
 Current status
 AFSPC/DR seeking significant funding starting FY08
 Expect completed integration by FY12
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Integration

Joint Environmental Toolkit (JET)
 An architecture-based acquisition that will deliver a weather
weapon system to operators at the strategic, force, and unit
level to produce tailored weather products for use by decision
makers
 A hardware and software integration and development effort,
focusing on machine-to-machine and human-to-machine
interactions
 Field 2009, FOC 2011
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Overview
 General
DoD Perspectives
 Collection
 Physical
and Analysis
Models
 Integration
 Way
Ahead
Integrity - Service - Excellence
13
The Way Ahead
Provide warfighters more accurate and timely space weather information,
enabling them to anticipate and exploit the space environment for
operational advantage

Continue advocacy for collection in all space domains (e.g. NPOESS cut battles)
and design collection strategy architecture for all domains with a goal of
enhanced collection for operations

Foster development of, and implement the best new space weather models to
improve accuracy and timeliness

Integrate meaningful space weather information into warfighter command and
control, planning and execution architectures

Develop impact reporting, analysis and archiving processes to document the
value of space weather products, improve support to warfighters and obtain
additional resources for the mission

Document and state space weather relevance, requirements, capabilities,
deficiencies and solutions at the joint level—Big AF buy-in

Continue working together and create new partnerships, within the space weather
community leveraging our individual capabilities as—no one agency can “go it
alone”
Integrity - Service - Excellence
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