Transcript Boreal Forest Fire Activity in Canada and Siberia During ARCTAS *

Boreal Forest Fire Activity in Canada
and Siberia During ARCTAS
The ARCTAS Boreal Fire Team*
*Mike Fromm (Naval Research Laboratory)
Brian Stocks (B.J. Stocks Wildfire Investigations Ltd.)
Amber Soja (National Institute of Aerospace)
Rene Servranckx (Canadian Meteorological Centre)
Dan Lindsey (NOAA/NESDIS/RAAMB)
* with thanks to the ARCTAS Science Team
ARC-IONS Workshop
Toronto, Canada, January 7-8, 2009
Outline




Boreal fire context – Canada and SK
Boreal fire behavior and column dynamics
ARCTAS within context of 2008 fire season
SK fire activity before and during ARCTAS
Canadian Forest Fire Activity
7.5 million hectares –
large interannual
variability (> order of
magnitude) – complicates
trend analysis
8000000
120
7000000
100
6000000
800
5000000
Area (ha)
 Annual burned area: 0.3-
Number of Fires and Area Burned in Canada 1920-2003
4000000
600
3000000
400
2000000
200
1000000
of fires ~8000 since 1970
 Driven by:
 Continental climate
 Extreme weather
 Multiple ignitions
Year
Area Burned
No. of Fires
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
1938
1935
1932
1929
1926
1923
0
1920
 Average annual number
0
Seasonal CDN Large Fire
Distribution
•June/July in high boreal
•Lightning fires
•Generally free burning
•Natural/essential
Large Fires in Canada
• 3% of fires >200 ha, 97% of area burned
• Large modified suppression zone (OBZ) where fires receive limited
response – focus here as fires burn naturally – unlimited access
• Well within range from Cold Lake AB
ARCTAS Summer
2008 in SK and Canadian Context
2008
1997-2007
SK OBZ AB
746,219
265,051
Can OBZ AB
956,429
1,251,807
Can Total AB
1,642,884
1,946,310
78% of 2008 Canadian OBZ area
burned occurred in SK in 2008
Fire Intensity/Energy Release
 Combine rate of spread/fuel
consumption/heat of combustion to
determine fire intensity (I=HWR) =
resistance to control
 Savanna Fires:
 0.1-1.2 kg/m2
 500-10,000 kW/m
 Lower convection columns
 Boreal/Temperate Forest Fires:
 2.5-5.0 kg/m2
 100-100,000 kW/m
 > fuel consumption & intensity
 Towering convection columns
reaching UTLS
A typical high-intensity boreal crown
fire convection column viewed from
an altitude of ~10 km (photo courtesy
Mr. Todo, JAL)
Boreal Fire Convection Column
Dynamics
• Column is integrator of FC, RoS and intensity
• Column develops if rate at which thermal energy
is converted to kinetic energy above the fire >
kinetic energy of windfield
• Reverse produces a wind-driven fire
• Buoyant, heated gases above fire rise and entrain
surrounding cool air – buoyancy the force through
which fire thermal energy converted to kinetic
energy of motion in column
• Height/dynamics of column function of
atmospheric lapse rate and size/intensity of fire
• Columns attain full potential if winds
decreasing/constant above fire, while higher
winds aloft sheer off column
• Solid structure moving across landscape, blocking
ambient wind, whirlwinds on lee side
Convection Column Zones
• Fuel bed, combustion & turbulence
zones (up to 100m)
• Fire convection zone; up to base of
convection column cap (from 300 to
~6000m in height)
• Smoke fallout zone – thin layer at
base of convection cap
• Condensation convection zone or
capping cumulus rising to top of
column – smoke still present in this
zone
2008 Canadian Fire Season
•
•
•
•
•
•
Virtually no fires east of MB
Light year in BC, AB,YK
Early fires in MB in May
Began early June in SK, NT
Centered in OBZ
Fires allowed to burn
SK Fire Activity June 10/08
NOAA AVHRR
0207h June 11/08
pyroCB
MODIS Aqua 2015h UTC June 10/08
SK Fire Activity June 11/08
MODIS Aqua 1920h UTC
June 15/08
Mid-June precipitation
slowed fire activity for a period
June 18/08
Our Role in ARCTAS
• Forecast fire occurrence and behavior
• Support aircraft missions
• Liaise with fire management agencies
responsible for fires
• Monitor/document fire growth and column
development with satellite imagery
• Forecast pyroCb development
• Monitor Siberian fire activity
Fire Danger Conditions
• Monitor CWFIS outputs & data from SK
weather stations
• Forecast fire danger
• High to extreme in northern SK in early
June, then tapering off with scattered
showers, building again in late June
ISI and FWI
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
60
40
20
0
80
ISI and FWI
BUI
FWI
100
ISI
FWI
BUI
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
Big Fish
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
60
40
20
0
BUI
Uranium City
BUI
BUI
26
27 -Ju
n
28 -Ju -08
n
29 Ju -08
n
30 -Ju -08
-J n-0
1- u n- 8
J 0
2- ul- 8
J 0
3- ul- 8
J 0
4- ul- 8
J 0
5- ul- 8
J 0
6- ul- 8
J 0
7- ul- 8
J 0
8- ul- 8
J 0
9- ul- 8
10 Ju 08
l
11 -Ju - 08
l
12 Ju - 08
-J l- 0
ul 8
-0
8
ISI
ISI and FWI
ISI and FWI
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
BUI
26
27 -Ju
n
28 -Ju -08
n
J
29 u -08
n
30 -Ju -08
-J n-0
1- u n- 8
J 0
2- ul- 8
J 0
3- ul- 8
J 0
4- ul- 8
J 0
5- ul- 8
J 0
6- ul- 8
J 0
7- ul- 8
J 0
8- ul- 8
J 0
9 ul 8
10- Ju - 08
l11 -Ju 08
l
12 -Ju - 08
-J l- 0
ul 8
-0
8
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
26
27 -Ju
n
28 -Ju -08
n
29 Ju -08
n
30 -Ju -08
-J n-0
1- u n- 8
J 0
2- ul- 8
0
3- Jul- 8
J 0
4- ul- 8
0
5- Jul- 8
0
6- Jul- 8
Ju 08
7- l0
8- Jul- 8
J 0
9- ul- 8
10 Ju 08
l
11 -Ju - 08
l
12 Ju - 08
-J l- 0
ul 8
-0
8
26
27 -Ju
n
28 -Ju -08
n
29 -Ju -08
n
30 Ju -08
-J n-0
1- u n- 8
J 0
2- ul- 8
J 0
3- ul- 8
J 0
4- ul- 8
J 0
5- ul- 8
J 0
6- ul- 8
J 0
7- ul- 8
J 0
8- ul- 8
J 0
9 ul 8
10- Ju - 08
l
11 -Ju - 08
l
12 Ju - 08
-J l- 0
ul 8
-0
8
FWI System Values during ARCTAS
Stoney Rapids
ISI
80
FWI
BUI
Candle Lake
100
ISI
FWI
BUI
Summer ARCTAS Deployment Timeline of Smoke Plumes
26
1
June
7
July
12
AVHRR
June 30
1931 UTC
OMI Aerosol Index
June 30
2341 UTC
4 hours later
June 28 smoke columns
near Lake Athabasca:
5-6 km
Photos courtesy P3 group
Fires between
Athabasca and
Reindeer Lakes
June 30/08
5-7 km
Photos courtesy
P3 group
Typical pyroCb convection columns (10-12 km)
Typical pyroCb fire
behavior: continuous
high-intensity crown fires
Small pyroCb near Norman
Wells, NWT June 28/08
Some precip Period during
ARCTAS
• Scattered rainfall quieted fires
• So, quiet period before ARCTAS after
June 12, then revived during first 5 days of
ARCTAS, then quiet but rebuilding around
Lake Athabasca and Pelican Narrows
active
Siberian Fires during ARCTAS
• Major fire year again in Siberia
• Began very early – smoke detected during
ARCTAS Spring Phase
• Lack of effective fire management due to
economic problems…widespread
exploitation of Russian forests
• Smoke transported to North America,
including Arctic
East Siberian Fires
June 28/08
East Siberian Fires
June 30/08
Russian fires continue to grow
Smoke thickening
East Siberian Fires
July 1/08
East Siberian Fires
July 2/08
East Siberian Fires
July 3/08
10 km
7 km
6 km
13 UT
GOES vis
20080706
1100 UTC
11 UT
9 UT
ARCTAS Science Meeting
• Will focus on relationship between fire
danger/fire behavior and column heights on
ARCTAS fires on sampling days
• Use fire growth maps and MODIS hotspot data,
along with CDN Fire Behavior Prediction System
• Early results indicate that intense surface fires
and intermittent crown fires were common
during ARCTAS, resulting in plumes reaching 57 km in altitude
June 29-July
July 9-18/08