Transcript EPA Region 10 Cumulative Effects Analysis Methodology Development Rob Wilson and Herman Wong

EPA Region 10
Cumulative Effects Analysis
Methodology Development
Rob Wilson and Herman Wong
WESTAR Fall Technical Conference
September 16, 2003
Objective
• Develop procedures and data sets for WA, OR,
& ID
• Consistent application with State &FLM buy-in
• Cumulative Class I Increment analysis
• Cumulative air quality related value (AQRV)
(visibility and deposition) analysis
• Available on Internet
• (No Class II Increment or NAAQS for now)
Dispersion Model
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CALPUFF System
For point sources
For mobile and area sources?
Limited chemistry
Practicality for large runs?
Meteorology
• 12-km MM5 data from Univ. of Washington
• Three years of data
• Limited study to evaluate CALMET options for MM5
Option A
Option B
Option C
Sfc P, RH Precip &
NOOBS Sfc Winds & Clouds Upper Air
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obs
obs
MM5
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MM5
obs
MM5
2
MM5
MM5
MM5
Terrain with 12-km spacing
Emissions
• Request to States for point sources
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Baseline
Actual
Allowable
SO2>40TPY, NOx>40TPY, PM>15 TPY
• Mobile source assessment
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MOBILE 6 applied to Puget Sound region, 1988 & 2003
VMT up 34%
Tail-pipe NOx emissions down 22%
Fugitive PM scales with VMT
Will need to be included in PSD increment analyses
Process
• State concerns:
– Predicted widespread increment violations or AQRV
impacts may lead to construction ban
– Policy development should precede technical
development
– Lack of resources to help development or to implement
• Joint Technical Advisory Committee with States and
FLMs
• Joint policy development group (progress?)
Initial Problems & Issues
• Changes/errors in CALMET/CALPUFF
• How to calculate PSD Increment
– Model only increases and decreases
– Model baseline and current
– Short-term increment
Initial Problems & Issues (continued)
• Emission inventories
– No minor sources yet
– Idaho EI still in development
– Washington not fully evaluated yet (only point
sources >100 TPY)
Oregon EI Issues
• Stack parameters
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Provided total emissions for the source; not by emissions unit
One stack for all units at a source, max plume rise
Missing for many sources; will assign NEI defaults by SIC code
Not suitable for Class II increment or NAAQS analysis
PSD program not linked to EI improvement
ODEQ does not seem to have the will or the resources to get
stack data for modeling
• TSP/PM10 inconsistency
– For baseline, PM10 = % of TSP
– For current actuals, PM10 based on emission factors
EI Suggestions
• Should account for minor sources, too (will have
to for 2002 EI)
• Minimum modeling data
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By emission unit at stationary source
UTM or lat/long, datum, and elevation
Operating schedule
Baseline, permit allowable, and current actual
emissions
– Stack data (height, temp, exit diameter/velocity)
– Nearby building dimensions
Project Schedule
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System installed in March 2003
Currently evaluating met and preparing EIs
Testing with single source December 2003?
Preliminary system with complete EI by
January 2004?
• Tested system available to others by April
2004?
• Policy development schedule???
Things to Try Later
• Employ CMAQ
– For mobile and area sources
– Background for CALPUFF
– Emissions outside of WA, OR, and ID
• Nesting to 4 km in CALMET/CALPUFF
• Employ 4-km MM5 data
Some Recommendations
• Further evaluation of options in generating
meteorological data with MM5 & CALMET
• State and Tribal EIs should be built for modeling
• PSD/NSR/Title 5 programs should improve state EI
• Need to be getting nearby building data
• Policy development for Cumulative Effects
Analysis should be pursued more aggressively