Transcript Document 7640710

Energy Alternatives
Oil Peak
Gary Flomenhoft
http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/CDAE06/
The “OIL PEAK”
Source: Smil (1991)
Composition of U.S. Energy Use
100
75
coal
wood
oil
50
gas
25
animal
feed
electricity
0
1800
1825 1850
1875
1900 1925
1950 1975
2000
1
0
0
0
1
0
5
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
5
0
1
2
0
0
1
2
5
0
1
3
0
0
1
3
5
0
1
4
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
5
0
0
1
5
5
0
1
6
0
0
1
6
5
0
1
7
0
0
1
7
5
0
1
8
0
0
1
8
5
0
1
9
0
0
1
9
5
0
2
0
0
0
World GDP Billions US$$
$10,000
$1,000
330
World GDP
CO2 level
310
$100
290
$10
270
$1
250
ATMOSPHERIC CO2
World GDP and CO2
$100,000
370
350
Energy Rate of Return
Energy Densities of Fuels
Fuel
Peats, green wood, grasses
Crop residues, air-dried wood
Bituminous coals
Charcoal, anthracite coals
Crude oils
Energy Density (Mj/kg)
5.0-10.0
12.0-15.0
18.0-25.0
18.0-32.0
40.0-44.0
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
100%
80%
Labor
Fuel
60%
40%
20%
Domesticated
Animals
0%
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation
(after Hubbert, 1969)
Trillion kwh per year
300
200
100
-5
Stonehenge
Built
-4
-3
-1
-2
0
Mayan
culture
Steam
Parthenon
Engine
completed
Pyramids
Iron in
constructed
Black
Middle
Death
East
Inquisition
Magellan's
Circumnavigation
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
Hubbert Oil Cycle
US Oil Extraction
Results- Various Countries
Historial Production
2.5
0.60
0.50
2.0
BBO
0.30
Historical
Production
Predicted
Production
0.20
0.10
1.5
1.0
0.5
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1960
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
Algeria (EUR=26.09 BBO)
1970
0.0
0.00
Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO)
0.12
1.40
Historical
Production
0.10
1.20
1.00
Predicted
Production
0.06
Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO)
Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)
2040
2030
2020
1960
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
0.00
1980
0.00
1970
0.02
1960
0.20
2010
0.04
0.40
2000
Predicted
Production
1990
0.60
1980
0.80
BBO
0.08
Historical
Production
1970
BBO
0.40
BBO
Predicted
Production
World Oil Extraction
Various National Patterns
Billion Barrels per Year
United States (EUR = 286 BBO)
USA – E.g.. of a net consumer
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Production
Demand
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Billion barrels per year
Venezuela (EUR = 95.71 BBO)
2
Production
Demand
1.5
Venezuela – E.g. of a net
producer
1
0.5
High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low
economic growth scenario
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Various National Patterns
Billion barrels per year
Mexico (EUR = 82.48 BBO)
2.5
2
Production
Demand
1.5
1
0.5
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
United Arab Emirates (EUR=80.63 BBO)
Billion barrels per year
Mexico– E.g.. of a country
that switches over from
net producer to net
consumer in the future.
U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing
producer.
3.0
Production
Demand
2.5
2.0
1.5
High reserves (~ 3000 BBO)
and low economic growth
scenario
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Forecasting Oil Production
U = ~ 3000 (mean
estimate of the USGS
2000).
Peak Production =
2037
Source : US DOE (EIA), website.
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Consumption
World Oil Flows
Two Views
•Julian Simon view: technological
developments and human ingenuity will
yield more resources
–“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6th12th 1999, pp. 23-25
•Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves
to predict the end of oil
S. Gürcan Gülen,
Ph.D.
–“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American,
March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and
Laherrere)
Real Price of Oil since 1869
Real Price of Oil since 1869
Oil Reserve/Production ratio
Oil Reserves
“Proven” oil reserves
Natural Gas Reserves
Natural Gas Reserves
Coal Reserves
Gas Hog Tax Credit
Hummer H1
Sticker price $106,185
Current law
Equipment deduction $25,000
Total tax deduction* $60,722
Bush economic plan
Equipment deduction $75,000
Total tax deduction* $88,722
* Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a
deduction for normal depreciation.
Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense
Cars per Thousand People
Source:
JustAuto.com
Thomas Gross,
US DOE
“Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world.
By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5
billion or maybe more.”
China Energy use 1997
Source: EPA
American success
Great natural resources
Energy subsidies: slaves then
fossil fuels
Global trade
Other Extinct cultures
Rapa Nui- (Easter Island)
Mangaia
Mangereva
Pitcairn
Henderson
Exception:
Tikopia