Transcript Using Biological Monitoring to Detect Climate Change Effects: A Classification of Bioindicators

Using Biological Monitoring to Detect
Climate Change Effects: A Classification
of Bioindicators
Britta Bierwagen, Susan Julius
Global Change Research Program, NCEA/ORD/EPA
Michael Barbour, Jeroen Gerritsen, Anna Hamilton, Mike
Paul
Tetra Tech, Inc.
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The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not necessarily reflect
the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
National Center for Environmental Assessment
May 25, 2016
Climatic changes
Effects in aquatic
ecosystems
Biological and
ecological
responses
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Assessment
of
responses
Increased CO2 in
atmosphere
Increased air
temperature
Altered precipitation
regimes
Increased water
temperature
Altered flow
Increased snowmelt
Altered evapotranspiration
Reduced ice cover
Increased sea levels
Increased salinity /
altered water chemistry
Increased CO2 in
waters
Altered stratification
regime
Ecosystem
Community
Altered energy flow and cycling
Altered species tolerances & interactions
Population
Individual
Altered demographic rates
Altered vital rates
Responses can be measured using indicators
Outline
• Climate change consequences for aquatic systems
• Effects on biological indicators
• Categories of biological indicators according to
responsiveness to climate change
• Considerations for monitoring and bioassessment
programs
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Climate Change Effects on Aquatic Ecosystems
• Changes in air temperature influence changes in
water temperature
• Changes in precipitation timing and amount affect
water quantity and quality, and timing of flows
• Thermal expansion and polar melting cause sea level
rise
• Increasing atmospheric CO2 decreases pH
Effects vary regionally and seasonally
Alterations have consequences throughout ecosystem
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Climate change effects on aquatic
ecosystems will affect both reference and
impaired sites
• Need to distinguish climate change from other
stressors, both to control for and detect effects
• Monitoring design and selection of indicators should
reflect these needs
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What kind of ecosystem effects
are expected?
Some examples of what could be monitored…
• Species moving up in altitude and latitude
– Changing species composition
– Changing emergence dates
– Changing seasonality & productivity of plankton
– Changing food web interactions
• Increased biological productivity due to warmer water
temperatures and longer ice-free periods
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Cht. 4, IPCC 2007
Additional Monitoring
Considerations: Climate and
Land Use Change Interactions
Can monitoring disentangle interacting stressors?
• High flows
– Land use likely to dominate signal
• Low flows
– Climate likely to dominate signal
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How do we continue to measure
impairment due to existing
stressors in a changing climate?
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Climate Change & Bioassessment Programs
• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference & non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
– Difficult to establish goal if baseline is changing
– Or goals may be impossible to meet
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Climate Change & Bioassessment Programs
• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference & non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
– Difficult to establish goal if baseline is changing
– Or goals may be impossible to meet
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Climate Change & Bioassessment Programs
• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference & non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
– Difficult to establish goal if baseline is changing
– Or goals may be impossible to meet
10
Climate Change & Bioassessment Programs
• Additional stressor on ecosystem
• Affects both reference & non-reference sites
• Current indicators may be confounded by climate
change effects on ecosystems
• Bioassessment program management goals
– Difficult to establish goal if baseline is changing
– Or goals may be impossible to meet
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How do existing biological
indicators respond to climate
change?
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Preliminary Analysis of Indicators
• Developed initial categorization of
biological indicators according to
sensitivity to climate change
• Conducted case studies on effects on
reference and non-reference sites and
monitoring strategies
• Held workshops for biocriteria
managers (Spring ’07 & ’08)
• Final report available on EPA/NCEA
website under Global Change*
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* http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=190304
Categories of Indicators
Insensitive to
Climate Change
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Sensitive to
Climate Change
Sensitive to
Climate Change
and Other
Stressors
Indicator
Warmwater fish
Fish community
composition
Salmon egg to fry
survival
Response
No change in majority
of range
Cold- and coolwater
fish species decline,
warmwater fish
species increase
Decreased survival
due to increased
turbidity from sediment
input due to increased
precipitation and/or
land use change
What Defines Climate-Insensitive?
• Ecological events not cued to temperature
• Species is tolerant of broad temperature range
• Tolerant of wide range of hydrologic conditions
– High flows or low flows
– High variability in flow
– Variation in salinity
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What Defines Climate-Sensitive?
• Ecological events cued to temperature
• Species exists in narrow temperature range
• Intolerant of certain hydrologic conditions
– High flows or low flows
– Saltwater intrusion
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Current Research
• Evaluate how indicator species respond to climate
change through pilot studies (ME, OH, NC, UT)
• Develop database on species traits related to climate
sensitivity
• Use historical data to examine trends at reference
sites linked to climate variables
• Use data to project potential effects from CC
• Case studies on land use change interactions
– Examine vulnerability of reference sites
– Examine similarities and differences in responses of
indicators to urbanization vs. climate change
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Pilot Studies
• In-depth studies focusing on needs of state programs,
incorporating inputs from last workshop
• Focus on detailed evaluation of potential indicators
• Taxa traits associated with climate change responses
• Regional variation among indicators and traits
• Test for trends among state databases to test taxa and
functional group hypotheses
• Categorize species according to sensitivities and
responses
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• Develop indices
Climate-Sensitive Traits
• Phenology (timing of emergence, reproduction, flowering, etc.)
• Longer growing season (number of reproductive periods)
• Life stage-specific
• Temperature sensitivity
• Hydrologic sensitivity
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Potential Cold-Water Indicator Taxa
using Maine Data
•Rhyacophila (Trichoptera)
•Parapsyche (Trichoptera)
•Ameletus (Ephemeroptera)
•Epeorus (Ephemeroptera)
•Pteronarcys (Plecoptera)
•Perlodidae (Plecoptera)
•Micropsectra (Chironomidae)
•Brillia (Chironomidae)
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Potential Warm-Water Indicator
Taxa using Maine Data
•Pseudochironomus (Chironomidae)
•Pentaneura (Chironomidae)
•Cheumatopsyche (Trichoptera)
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Management & Monitoring:
What can be done?
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Some specific recommendations
• Accept moving target paradigm versus steady state model
• Establish sentinel sites for trend monitoring
• Mine historical data records to establish a basis for
evaluating climate change
• Improve hydrological and temperature data collection
• Integrate the concept of climate change into monitoring
and planning
• Monitor for effectiveness of restoration activities that may
buffer climate-change impacts
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What’s needed to implement
recommendations?
• Monitoring of reference sites
– Repeated sampling at same sites (sentinel sites)
• Collecting baseline data
– Biotic and abiotic variables (temperature, flow)
– Species trait information and sensitivities
• Acquiring continuous and real time data
• Linking real-time data and near real-time modeling
• Improving year-round ecosystem monitoring
infrastructure
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Acknowledgements
Jen Stamp (Tetra Tech, Inc.)
J. David Allan (U. Mich.), LeRoy Poff (Col. State)
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Thank You!
Questions?
[email protected]
703-347-8613
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