Transcript What can we learn about unusual earthquake on the Grid?

What can we learn about unusual earthquake
hazards from large scale numerical simulations
on the Grid?
JEAN-BERNARD MINSTER &
SCEC ITR Collaboration
MSCISI 6/27/2006
People Involved
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Kim Olsen (SDSU)
Steven Day (SDSU)
Bernard Minster (IGPP)
Yifeng Cui (SDSC)
Amit Chourasia (SDSC)
Marcio Faerman (SDSC)
Yuanfang Hu (SDSC)
Jing Zhu (SDSC)
Yi Li (SDSC)
Reagan Moore (SDSC)
Phil Maechling (USC)
Tom Jordan (USC)
MSCISI 6/27/2006
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Arun Jagatheesan (SDSC)
Nancy Wilkins-Diehr (SDSC)
Richard Moore (SDSC)
Bryan Banister (SDSC)
Leesa Brieger (SDSC)
Amit Majumdar (SDSC)
Giridhar Chukkapalli (SDSC)
Qiao Xin (SDSC)
Donald Thorp (SDSC)
Patricia Kovatch (SDSC)
Larry Diegel (SDSC)
Tom Sherwin (SDSC)
Christopher Jordan (SDSC)
Marcus Thiebaux (ISI)
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Julio Lopez (CMU)
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Geoffrey Ely (IGPP)
Boris Shkoller (IGPP)
Jacobo Bielak (CMU)
David Okaya (USC)
Ralph Archuleta (UCSB)
Steve Cutchin (SDSC)
George Kremenek (SDSC)
The FEMA 366 Report
“HAZUS’99 Estimates of Annual Earthquake Losses for the United
States”, September, 2000
• U.S. annualized
earthquake loss
(AEL) is about
$4.4 billion/yr.
• For 25 states, AEL
> $10 million/yr
• 74% of the total is
concentrated in
California
• 25% is in Los
Angeles County
alone
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SCEC Community Fault Model
A. Plesch and J. Shaw (2003)
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Seismic Hazard Analysis in Southern
California
Information on
active faulting
SCEC
Community
Fault Model
Dolan, 2000
Earthquake
Forecast Model
Attenuation
Relationship
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Site
Response
Intensity
Measure
SCEC Community Velocity Model
(CVM)
• Anelastic; Q model of Olsen et al. (2002)
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MSCISI 6/27/2006
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1906
M 7.8
Major Earthquakes on
the San Andreas
Fault, 1690-present
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1857
M 7.9
~1690
M 7.7
Rupture
History of
Southern San
Andreas Fault
Next earthquake?
Last earthquake ca. 1680
Mean repeat time
~ 200 years
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R. Weldon, T. Fumal,
G. Biasi & K. Scharer,
this meeting
TeraShake
Simulation
area
600 km by
300 km by
80 km
dx=200m
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Designing the TeraShake Source Model
• Southern SAF sliprate ~ 15-26 mm/year
• Slip deficit on the southern SAF last event (1690):
315 years x 16 mm/year = 5.04 m
• TeraShake source:
Mo = m A Save ~ 3 1010 x 200 km x 13.5 km x 5 m
~ 4 1020 Nm -> Mw = 7.7
• Slip distribution taken from 2002 Denali
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Computational Challenge!
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TeraShake Performance
Significant Parallel Speedup of TeraShake Code*
*run o n IB M SP4, 32/64/96p data fro m 32-way 1.7GHz p690 no des, 240p data fro m 8-way 1.5GHz p655 no des
350
256
Total Elapsed Time
Computing Time
Speedup
224
250
192
200
160
150
128
100
96
50
64
0
32
32
64
96
240
Processors
Source: Yifeng Cui, Scientific Computing, SDSC
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Speedup
Seconds per Timestep
300
SCEC Community Velocity Model (CVM) V.3.0
Q model of Olsen, Day and Bradley (2003)
Max sliprate
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Max slip
Peak Velocity
NW-SE Rupture
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SE-NW rupture
PGV (NW-SE Rupture)
PGV (SE-NW1 Rupture)
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Peak Amplification BETWEEN SG and LA Basins
San Gabriel Basin
Los Angeles Basin
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Love Waves!
Radial
Transverse
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Peak Amplification @ Narrowing of the Sediment Channel
Los Angeles Basin
W
Whittier-Narrows
Southern
SAF
San Gabriel Basin
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N50W Velocity at Peak
SE-NW1
SE-NW2
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Peak Velocity: SE-to-NW Rupture
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Consistent Feature for SE-NW Ruptures
SE-NW1
V α (C A)-0.5
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SE-NW2
SE-NW
Montebello: 337 cm/s
Downtown: 52 cm/s
Long Beach: 48 cm/s
Mexicali: 2 cm/s
San Diego: 8 cm/s
NW-SE
Montebello: 8 cm/s
Downtown: 4 cm/s
Long Beach: 9 cm/s
Mexicali: 17 cm/s
San Diego: 6 cm/s
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Peak Velocity: NW-to-SE Rupture
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Peak Displacements
NW-SE Rupture
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SE-NW Rupture
Large-scale Simulations of M7.7 Earthquakes on
the Southern San Andreas Fault
With Dynamic Rupture Propagation
The SCEC ITR Collaboration
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Initial stress distribution: Concatenation of three 1992 Landers solutions
(Peyrat, Olsen and Madariaga, 2001)
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Preparation of Crustal
Model Used for Dynamic
Rupture Propagation:
5 sub-volumes with planar fault
segments extracted and
stitched together to generate
volume with a single planar
fault segment
Fault
80km
N
50km
40km
200km
50km
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Some smoothing of
velocity model
required at stitching
points
TeraShake-2.1 slip history
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Cumulative Peak
Velocities
Kinematic Source
Dynamic Source
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Puente Hills Scenario
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Conclusions on Building Response From TS1.4
TeraShake (1.4):
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Montebello area: collapse of structures is likely
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Other sites: older and newer structures will likely have
good performance
Puente Hills comparable simulations:
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Older structures will likely experience connection fractures
with some possibility of collapse
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Newer structures will likely experience connection fracture
at some locations; very small possibility of collapse
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Narrated movie, 4D wavefield
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