Transcript Operational Needs • What operational needs are mandating a QPF

Operational Needs
• What operational needs are mandating a QPF
component to Q2?
– Warm-season convection
• Flash flood prediction
– Tropical storms
• Flash floods
• River flows
– Winter precipitation
• Snow, freezing rain, mixed phase
• Transportation weather
Q2 Definition
• The next generation multi-sensor
precipitation product that leverages the
national QPE mosiac and short range
QPF
• Is a predictive component needed for a
precipitation product?
Short Range QPF for Q2
• Extrapolation/ Advection Methods
– Radar correlation and translation methods
– Background wind advection methods
• Numerical Weather Prediction
– Very high resolution mesoscale models
– Advanced data assimilation - radar, satellite
– Minimal spin-up - Diabatic initialization
A Proposed Q2 Vision
• Vision for Q2: A National Quantitative
Precipitation Estimation/Forecast Product that
allows a user to look at precipitation rates and
accumulation for any period from the current
hour, H, back to H-A hr and forward to H+P
hr. This would require blending NMQ with
short range forecasting. This would address
needs of aviation, flash flood forecasting, and
public hazards.
Q2 Vision (cont)
• Combine QPE, Extrapolation, and NWP
in a seamless product extending
backwards A hours and forward P hours
from observation time
QPE
Numerical Weather Prediction
Extrapolation
A hour
Current Time
Time
1hr
2hr
P hr
Path to operations
• Who runs Q2?
• What are the needs for Short Range QPF in the
context of a Q2 product suite?
• Are models fully integrated within Q2?
• When, if ever, are ensembles a part of Q2?
• Can a national product serve all needs?
– Are regional products needed?
Use of Ensembles
• Are Ensembles a viable tool for Q2?
• How would they be employed?
Use of Ensembles
•
QPF Enhancement/Correction
– Aimed at improving single forecast
– Increased detail
•
Probabilistic QPF
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Meets NWS long-term goals
Advanced Post processing
Recovery of model error characteristics
Merging with Customer Decision Aids
Science Needs
•
What is the needed science to add a QPF component to Q2?
– Deterministic Short Range QPF
• Improved Extrapolation procedures
– Propagating existing QPE forward in time
• Improved Meso-models
– Microphysics
– Surface Processes
– Terrain Impacts
• Improved Initialization
– Satellite data
– Radar data
– Diabatic initial conditions
– Product merging (post processing)
• Combining QPE and QPF
• Optimization (relative weights) of QPE and QPF components
– Verification
• Appropriate Metrics
Science Needs
•
What is the needed science to add a QPF component to Q2? (continued)
– Model Ensemble
• Suite of extrapolation methods
• Suite of meso-models
– Multi-model single initialization time (physics differences)
– Single model, time phased (initialization differences)
• Probabilistic post processing
– Precipitation probabilities
– Precipitation correction schemes
• Verification
– Appropriate Metrics